Peavy is 7-1 (2.92 ERA) in 13 career starts vs the Reds, with his teams going 11-2...
My free play is on the SF Giants at 10:15 ET.
The SF Giants owned MLB’s best record at the All Star break (57-33) but the team has won just ONE of eight games (a 2-1, 12-inning victory this past Saturday) since resuming play. The Giants’ NL West lead has been cut to three games over the Dodgers (down from 6 1/2 games at the break) as they get set to open a week-long homestand on Monday night against the 38-60 Cincinnati Reds. The Giants return home off a 1-7 road trip in which they batted just .125 (9-for-72) with RISP, averaging only 2.88 RPG. The Reds are 6-3 since the break but remain in last place in the NL Central, a whopping 21 /2 games back of the Cubs.
Anthony DeSclafani (5-0, 2.50 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds and Jake Peavy (5-8, 5.15 ERA) starts for the Giants. DeSclafani didn’t make his first start of 2016 until June 10 but after two no-decisions to open his season, he’s won FIVE of his last six starts. The Reds are 6-2 in his eight starts this year and despite making only eight starts, his five wins is tied for the most of any Cincinnati pitcher. He enters this contest having posted SIX consecutive quality starts but in his only career start vs the Giants, allowed SIX runs (all earned) in just three innings of a 9-8 loss back on May 17, 2015.
A look at Jake Peavy’s 5.15 ERA paints a poor picture but note that after the Giants lost SIX of his first nine starts of 2016, the team has rebounded to win SEVEN of his last 10 (the Giants are 10-9 in his starts this season, plus-$109 vs the moneyline).
Peavy’s just 19-18 since joining the Giants in a trade from the Red Sox but a deeper look shows that six of those losses came against teams Peavy faced again later in the same season and he won all six of the rematches while posting a 2.95 ERA, after owning a 6.59 ERA in the first meetings.
Maybe more importantly, Peavy is an impressive 7-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Reds, with his teams going a money-making 11-2. He’s also NEVER lost a home start against Cincinnati, going 4-0 while allowing only 37 hits in 52 innings, while posting a 1.90 ERA. With the first-place Nats (NL East) coming to town Thursday for four games, this series is a great opportunity for the Giants to gain some momentum with a three-game sweep of the Reds. First things first and I’ll back Peavy and the Giants, tonight.