NBA faves are 17-2 straight up, but are barely profitable

Favorites are doing what they’re supposed to do in the NBA playoffs – win the game. Heading into Friday’s action, betting favorites are 17-2 SU in the postseason after Miami, Chicago and Memphis all won outright as the chalk Thursday.

While that 17-2 record may seem impressive to the casual fan, it doesn’t mean squat to NBA bettors. Anybody taking these favorites outright on the moneyline hasn’t won enough money to buy themselves lunch, despite suffering only two losses since Saturday.

The 17 winning teams have produced +5.24 units of profit in the postseason ($100 bettor would be up $524) but a pair of pricey losses – Brooklyn lost to Chicago as a -190 moneyline favorite in Game 2 and Denver fell to Golden State as a -330 moneyline fave in Game 2 – have all but erased those winnings.

That’s left anyone chasing moneyline favorites with a take of +0.04 units – or four bucks for $100 bettors. Enjoy the dollar menu.

Favorites have gone 11-8 against the spread so far in the postseason while the 19 playoff games have combined for a 7-10-2 over/under mark. Eastern Conference faves are 6-4 ATS while Western Conference chalk is 5-4 ATS. East games have gone 3-5-2 over/under, West contests boast a 4-5 over/under count.

Fans of the “Zig-Zag” theory – betting on teams coming off a SU loss – are 7-4 ATS heading into Friday. Potential Zig-Zag teams went 2-1 ATS Thursday night, with Memphis and Brooklyn covering the spread. The Celtics (-3), Lakers (+4.5) and Nuggets (+1) are all possible Zig-Zag bets Friday.

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Posted by djdj8888
11 months ago

its basic math... sammy you are correct... logan is confused :0
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Posted by SammyX
11 months ago

Logan are you on crack??? I'm only responding to your article claiming if you bet $100 a game, regardless of odds, you would win $1180 based on 17-2 record with two losers being -190 and -330. Please explain to me how you came up with $524.
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Posted by Blacktiger
11 months ago

J_Logan is right.. its simple
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Posted by dfkdjfkd
11 months ago

You do not straight up bet anything over -250 JUICE. Thats pure parlay... and at 17-2 Clip s/u THATS A LOT OF PARLAY WINNINGS i dont care what combination you did, you are winning if you parlay ML favorites.
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Posted by joemw74
11 months ago

lol
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Posted by w123082
11 months ago

I read those last two comments and I just hope you guys aren't betting the family jewels on these games....Vegas wiseguys might put those in their hall of fame...
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Posted by cubman
11 months ago

that's 17-2 SU not ATS. The faves have only gone 11-8 ATS.
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Posted by SammyX
11 months ago

Am I missing something??? Seventeen winners at $100 per is $1700 less 2 losers of $330 and $190 is $1180 of profit. How did you come up with $524???
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Posted by J_Logan
11 months ago

You're making pennies on the dollar when you bet moneyline favorites, especially Miami at -2,600. Then when a moneyline fave does lose, you take a huge hit.
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Posted by go_opp
11 months ago

Yea, I'm with you SammyX. I'm coming up with 1180 as well.
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Top Response

Posted by SammyX
11 months ago

"Am I missing something??? Seventeen winners at $100 per is $1700 less 2 losers of $330 and $190 is $1180 of profit. How did you come up with $524???"