NBA faves are 17-2 straight up, but are barely profitable
Favorites are doing what they’re supposed to do in the NBA playoffs – win the game. Heading into Friday’s action, betting favorites are 17-2 SU in the postseason after Miami, Chicago and Memphis all won outright as the chalk Thursday.
While that 17-2 record may seem impressive to the casual fan, it doesn’t mean squat to NBA bettors. Anybody taking these favorites outright on the moneyline hasn’t won enough money to buy themselves lunch, despite suffering only two losses since Saturday.
The 17 winning teams have produced +5.24 units of profit in the postseason ($100 bettor would be up $524) but a pair of pricey losses – Brooklyn lost to Chicago as a -190 moneyline favorite in Game 2 and Denver fell to Golden State as a -330 moneyline fave in Game 2 – have all but erased those winnings.
That’s left anyone chasing moneyline favorites with a take of +0.04 units – or four bucks for $100 bettors. Enjoy the dollar menu.
Favorites have gone 11-8 against the spread so far in the postseason while the 19 playoff games have combined for a 7-10-2 over/under mark. Eastern Conference faves are 6-4 ATS while Western Conference chalk is 5-4 ATS. East games have gone 3-5-2 over/under, West contests boast a 4-5 over/under count.
Fans of the “Zig-Zag” theory – betting on teams coming off a SU loss – are 7-4 ATS heading into Friday. Potential Zig-Zag teams went 2-1 ATS Thursday night, with Memphis and Brooklyn covering the spread. The Celtics (-3), Lakers (+4.5) and Nuggets (+1) are all possible Zig-Zag bets Friday.