Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule dissected the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. Now, he breaks down the NCAA tournament field to showcase the most overrated team, the most underrated ranked team, and a dangerous team that could do damage to brackets this March.
Most Underrated NCAA Team - Miami Hurricanes (27-6 SU, 20-9-1 ATS)
It's shocking that the Hurricanes didn't get the No. 1 seed after everything they accomplished this year. They finished at the top of the ACC during the regular season and went on to win the conference tournament. They had impressive wins during the season over Duke and Michigan State, and they won on the road against N.C. State and North Carolina.
Miami was a very profitable 20-9-1 ATS this season and it hasn’t been getting a lot of credit from the books. The Canes have a good draw in their first game, facing the Pacific Tigers. The Hurricanes should cruise to an easy victory and they look like they could go deep into the tournament.
Most Overrated NCAA Team - Gonzaga Bulldogs (31-2 SU, 17-12-2 ATS)
The Bulldogs have only lost twice this season and both of those losses came against Top-25 teams. That gives them a record of 1-2 against ranked opponents, so you have to be pretty suspect of their record given that almost all of their wins have come against unranked teams.
We will find out how good these Bulldogs are when they face some of the better teams in the country. First they will take on the Southern Jaguars, and they are an enormous favorite in that game. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bulldogs struggle as they get deeper into the tournament and I’m forecasting an early exit.
Most Dangerous NCAA Team - North Carolina Tar Heels (24-10 SU, 20-12 ATS)
After a slow start to the season, the Tar Heels are peaking at the right time. They have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 overall and they have a profitable record of 19-12-2 ATS. North Carolina has lost four times since January 26 but all four of those losses have come against either Miami or Duke.
The Tar Heels take on Villanova in their first game of the tourney and the Wildcats are tough customers. They beat Syracuse, Louisville and Georgetown this season, but all of those upset victories came at home. North Carolina could be a sleeper to make a nice run in the tournament.