Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.
Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Oregon Ducks (23-6 SU, 11-15-1 ATS)
Oregon struggled without its starting PG Dominic Artis, losing three straight games to Stanford, Cal and Colorado in the first week of February. Artis returned to the lineup this week and logged just 12 minutes, scoring only six points in the Duck's win over the Beavers. He did nail a key 3-pointer that put Oregon ahead 55-52 at the 11:29 mark.
With the win over the Beavers, the Ducks have climbed back into the Top 25. Oregon now sits tied with UCLA for the lead in the Pac-12 standings and both teams will finish the season with back-to-back games away from home. Oregon plays Colorado Thursday and Utah in the final game of the season Saturday. With UCLA playing both Washington teams in its final games, the Ducks may have the easier path to the Pac-12 title.
Most Overrated Top 25 Team - VCU Rams (23-6 SU, 9-13 ATS)
The Rams blew out the Butler Bulldogs last weekend and have jumped up in the rankings. VCU is terrible at covering the points with a 9-13 ATS record heading into Wednesday’s game with Richmond. The Rams have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 outings.
VCU is second in the A-10, behind Saint Louis. It lost to the Billikens on the road by a score of 76-62 on the road last week. VCU has only had four games against ranked opponents, going 2-2 and losing two of the last three. It will finish the season on the road against Temple, facing an Owls team that has won five in a row entering this week.
Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked – Creighton Bluejays (24-7 SU, 15-13 ATS)
The Bluejays finished the season at the top of the Missouri Valley Standings. Creighton owns the best field goal percentage in the nation, shooting 51.1 percent from the field. The Bluejays fizzled out a little in the second half of the MVC schedule, however, they did win back-to-back games to close out the season and four of their last five.
They haven't faced a Top 25 opponent all year, but it's difficult to ignore the impressive numbers they put up in the Missouri Valley Conference.