Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.
Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Florida Gators (16-2, 11-4 ATS)
The Gators have quietly won eight straight games overall, and have covered the spread in the last seven of those victories. Florida is shooting 49.3 percent from the field, good enough to rank in the top 10 in the nation, but is also getting it done on the defensive side of the ball. The Gators have held opponents to fewer than 50 points in three of their last four games, and haven't allowed 60 points in any of their last seven contests.
Florida will face Ole Miss this Saturday, and it has taken the last three meetings with the Rebels. The only other ranked opponent the Gators will face this season will be Missouri, who they’ve already blown out at home 83-52.
Most Overrated Top 25 Team - Arizona Wildcats (17-2, 9-8 ATS)
The Wildcats are very fortunate to have a record of 17-2 and they’ve gotten lucky more than once in recent games. Arizona has faced two Top-25 teams this season, and it won each of those games by a single point, defeating Florida 65-64, and sneaking by San Diego State 68-67.
Arizona has failed to cover the points in seven of its last 10 games overall, despite winning eight of 10. The Wildcats have a couple of tough games coming up against Pac-12 rivals Washington and Stanford, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them lose at least one of those two games.
Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked – Notre Dame Fighting Irish (16-4, 9-8 ATS)
After losing three of their last five, the Irish have fallen out of the rankings, but two of those three losses were close games against tough teams. Admittedly, they looked terrible getting blown out by the Hoyas at home, losing 63-47, but bounced back with a solid road win over South Florida last time out.
Notre Dame is one of the best shooting teams in the country, hitting 50 percent from the field. The Irish are 4-3 in Big East play, tied with No. 24 Cincinnati, who they already beat earlier in the year.
Notre Dame will host Villanova Wednesday night, and the Wildcats have just knocked of two of the nation's top five teams. If the Irish can get the win at home Wednesday, you can expect to see them back in the rankings next week.