Home field doesn't mean much to NFL playoff bettors

After watching NFL home sides go 3-1 SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread) last weekend in the Wild Card playoff round, it would be easy to conclude that home-field advantage is exactly what it sounds like – an advantage.

But an examination of the home team’s numbers against the spread in recent years in this article from Pinnacle suggests that bettors might want to re-think that edge.

“During the six seasons since 2007, home sides have won 37 of the 60 postseason games in the run-up to the Super Bowl – an impressive 61.7 percent. However, the home side covered the spread in just 29 of those 60 games – just 48.8 percent,” writes Jack Ratcliffe.

That’s a costly winning rate when you consider a sports bettor needs to win at a roughly 58 percent clip to turn a profit. This is a change from a period between 1981 to 1996, says the article, when home teams racked up a moneymaking ATS win rate of 58 percent in playoff games.

All four home teams are favored in this weekend's NFL games and two home sides are seeing a pile of chalk – Denver and New England. Both teams sat at -9.5 at most sportsbooks heading into the weekend.

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Posted by Ed-Collins
1 year ago

So much for my formatting.
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Posted by Ed-Collins
1 year ago

I was about to jump in here and post the same thing. 58% ?? Where did they come up with that figure? That's completely wrong. I would expect to see that from some of the uneducated forum members, but not from the staff. At 11 to win 10, all you need is to win 53% of your games to show a profit: 53 * 100 = +$5300 47 * -110 = -$5170 Net is +$130
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Posted by jschule
1 year ago

"when you consider a sports bettor needs to win at a roughly 58 percent clip to turn a profit" That is not factual .. a sports bettor can make an enormous profit with a 55% win rate ATS, I know a guy who does. I see him every morning when I wake up and look in the mirror.
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Top Response

Posted by jschule
1 year ago

""when you consider a sports bettor needs to win at a roughly 58 percent clip to turn a profit" That is not factual .. a sports bettor can make an enormous profit with a 55% win rate ATS, I know a guy who does. I see him every morning when I wake up..."

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