Where the action is: NFL Thanksgiving line moves

Sportsbooks are setting the table for a huge day of wagering. With everyone home for the holiday, Thanksgiving is one of the biggest betting events of the year and it shows in the line adjustments for Thursday’s three NFL games.

We talk to Aron Black of bet365.com about those moves and where the odds are headed before kickoff:

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions – Open: +3, Move: +4

After sitting at a field goal since opening, money is starting to pile up on the road team and has moved the spread off the key number at most books. Other spots are juicing the 3.5 like a bag of oranges, trying to keep the home team low as much as possible.

“As for the Thanksgiving Day game aspect, action goes to Houston in that regard, as the Lions haven’t won on Turkey Day for the last eight games,” Black told Covers. “So, are they due, or does Houston heap more Thanksgiving Day misery on them?”

As for the total, after climbing as high as 50.5, action on the under has taken it back down to 49.5 points. Black says that bettors who are taking Houston should look for a run-first attack and those betting Detroit should expect an all-out air attack. Perhaps they should bet the total accordingly.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4, Move: -3

The line has been trimmed to a juiced field goal, with two-way wagering on the spread. However, plenty of bettors are skipping the points and taking Washington outright on the moneyline. The Redskins opened at +160 and are down to as low as +145 at some books.

“This one is obviously a tough game to call,” says Black. “The line goes with the home team, and would be similar line in Washington. This division has been up and down, and is up for grabs for anyone who can go on a run in the next four or five games. The biggest thing for anyone playing this game is where do you see the injury factors on both sides? Dallas is banged up on offense, while Washington is banged up on defense.”

Black says injuries to the Cowboys’ offensive line and rushing game and the Redskins’ banged up stop unit is keeping bettors at bay. This is the least bet game among the three Thanksgiving Day contests, but he expects action to pick up once more injury news is released.

New England Patriots at New York Jets – Open: +7.5, Move: +5.5, Move: +7

Sharp money looked at Rob Gronkowski’s injury as a reason to pile on the Jets and force this line down as low as 5.5 before buying back big on the Patriots. New England is expected to have TE Aaron Hernandez back from an ankle injury, softening the loss of Gronk.

“The upgrade for Hernandez has had impact on (the line), showing how much faith the bettors have in Hernandez to fill the role of the tight end-heavy passing game for New England,” says Black. “He’s being called a game-time decision, but I would venture a guess that the decision has been made already and he will play.”

Black says the total is seeing action on the over at a 3:1 rate, after dropping as low as 48 points from its opening of 51. Most books are currently dealing 48.5 as of Thursday morning.

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Posted by Parlayed
2 years ago

Yes. Probably a good idea to keep the wagers relativeley low today. I have done the opposite , and consequentley put a damper on several past holidays. (What's the matter Uncle Mike ?". - " Uh. Just the pumpkin pie, Timmy. Just not settin' right").
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Posted by scatman
2 years ago

yah the americans like nothing better than being told in rambling paragraphs how to act on the holidays. as a fellow canuck thanks for the football today and wishing you all a terrific thanksgiving and a successful day of wagering.
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Posted by 23skidoo
2 years ago

Thanksgiving OR Thanksgetting? Ponder this before you go to the window today... How much sedative laden turkey will be consumed in the continetal USA today and how many of those spirited folk will be too drunk to fuck before half time of the Deadskin Cowbag match? How many of them will end up in some kind of domestic abuse event over a bad result because of one of these gatherings. Hey everyone...Listen up..Try this... leave your egos at the door today.Yep DO IT! Your John Wayne storys and attitude...leave it at the door.those heroes we watch on TV..All gone! Yep they aren't even in play anymore and your pride is all based on RE-runs. We can't do anything about it either with our countries economics is in the shitter and the lease being monitored by the new land lords at the local Try N' Save or China Mart.. But hey...Smile its not that bad... We all know how to get that monkey off our backs,,We just dig up the tapes from the harbour in New England and press PLAY! Viola! and speaking of New England... "NEW ENGLAND Open: +7.5, Move: +5.5, Move: +7 Sharp money looked at Rob Gronkowski’s injury as a reason to pile on the Jets and force this line down as low as 5.5 before buying back big on the Patriots. New England is expected to have TE Aaron Hernandez back from an ankle injury, softening the loss of Gronk." Just looking at the line move and noting your suggestion that the original line move was sharp money ..If so..then where are the sharpies NOW?.. taking back that thick sweet chalk on the Jets Jets Jets? The original move was public perception and the buy back train only had sharp passengers.. Note to squares like all of us[The train for money on this game has already left the station]* and IT WAS ON TIME :) Happy Thanks Giving Folks..and hey always remember tread light today.Bookies tend to take advantage of our giving spirit and usually are those GETTING as opposed to GIVING.. gobble gobble.. Now I don't know about the people in your country around this holiday, but people in these frozen parts of Canada where I live are likely just like all of YOU Americans ..Better at giving than receiving. Thats what keeps countries with such adverse conditions as ours together as a people...and after all making sure everyone has a fair piece of the action is that what really matters when the final buzzer sounds... Warmest regards, 23skidoo ***
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Top Response

Posted by scatman
2 years ago

"yah the americans like nothing better than being told in rambling paragraphs how to act on the holidays. as a fellow canuck thanks for the football today and wishing you all a terrific thanksgiving and a successful day of wagering."