Inside The Stats: Lies, damned lies, and statistics
In the ever changing world of football, here’s my weekly look ‘Inside The Stats’ at some the ‘factual numbers’ that teams have posted this season to date.
How important is defense when it comes to winning football games?
Consider: The top 10-ranked teams in total defense this 2012 college football season are 66-25 SU and 43-42-1 ATS in games played through November 3.
The bottom 10-ranked teams in total defense this 2012 college football season are 32-56 SU and 34-46-1 ATS.
Here is this week’s list of the standout games involving teams that have faced common opponents this season.
When applied wisely, these results add additional handicapping fuel to one’s arsenal.
According to the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT newsletter, the largest variance of combined net total yardage in common opponent games this week finds: Georgia (+468), Boise State (+272), Marshall (+265), Arkansas (+258), Central Florida (+235), North Carolina (+219), Clemson (+204) and Oregon State (+184).
Both the Razorbacks and Beavers dress up as underdogs this week.
This week’s group of college football favorites that find themselves ‘leaking oil’ (teams who have been outgained in each of their last three games) include: Florida, Kent State, NC State, Tennessee and Wyoming.
The Vols find themselves laying doubles despite the fact they have lost the stats in each of their last five games. The Golden Flashes and the Wolfpack have been outgained in each of their last four contests.
On the NFL front Baltimore, Miami and NY Giants are all running with on empty this week.
The Dolphins have been installed as favorites twice this season. They’ve yet to bring home the bacon.
Teams with a better offense command attention. Teams with a better defense demand awareness.
When they bring both elements to the table and they are installed as underdogs, like Papa John’s, they make a better pizza.
Underdogs with the better offense and the better defense looking to make dough this week include Oakland and Houston in the NFL.
Keep an eye on the line in the Cowboys game. Should the Eagles revert back to a favorite, Dallas would be a nice slice.
Don’t Call Me A Rookie
First-year starting quarterbacks in the NFL have more than held up their end of the deal on the lofty contracts they signed this year.
In games headed into this week, these five neophytes are 19-24 SU and 24-17 ATS overall.
When taking points they are 22-11 ATS. When laying them they are 2-8 ATS.
Stat Of The Week
Texas A&M is 2-16 ATS away against undefeated opponents. In their last 29 losses as a road dog the Aggies have beaten the spread only two times.