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How much are the NFL's most overrated players worth to the spread?

No one knows the NFL better than its players, which is why Sports Illustrated has made it a yearly process to poll the pros on which of their fellow NFLers are the most overrated in the league.

And, no one knows NFL betting better than Las Vegas oddsmakers, which is why we at Covers polled Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, and found out just how much SI.com’s Most Overrated NFL Players were actually worth to the spread.

These values are projected moves to the spread, factoring in public perception, if these players were suddenly ruled out of action before kickoff:

1. Tim Tebow, QB New York Jets – 0 points

2. Mark Sanchez, QB New York Jets – 1 to 1.5 points

“With Tebow, nothing. With Sanchez, there is a little more to Sanchez because it’s New York and there’s a lot of money there,” Korner told Covers. “Maybe a point. It depends on how well he’s playing at the time.”

3. Tony Romo, QB Dallas Cowboys – 2 or 3 points


“He could be overrated for what he does on the field,” says Korner, “but his value to the spread is a two or three-point difference. There’s a dropoff there.”

4. Michael Vick, QB Philadelphia Eagles – 1 or 1.5 points


“Not the same as he used to be,” says Korner. “From my perspective, nothing. But from the bettors’ perspective, one or 1.5 points possibly. He’s just not playing with any intensity or energy.”

5. Ray Lewis, LB Baltimore Ravens – 0 points

“Back a few years ago, it would have been noted,” says Korner. “A cluster of defensive injuries will move a line, but it’s tough to set a value on one player.”

6. Reggie Bush, RB Miami Dolphins – 0.5 or 1 point

7. Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Philadelphia Eagles – 0 points

8. Michael Crabtree, WR San Francisco 49ers – 0 points

9. Tom Brady, QB New England Patriots – 7 points


“He’s big,” says Korner. “Depending on who they’re playing and what the spread is, he could be worth more or less. But right now, he’s still worth a lot.”

10. Ndamukong Suh, DT Detroit Lions – 0 points

11. B.J. Raji, NT Green Bay Packers – 0 points

12. Brian Urlacher, LB Chicago Bears – 0 points


13. Philip Rivers, QB San Diego Chargers – 4 to 6 points


“He’s another big one, but again it depends on who (San Diego is) playing and the spread,” says Korner.

 14. Dwayne Bowe, WR Kansas City Chiefs – 1 point


“He’s a good player and an excellent big-play guy,” says Korner. “Maybe a point.”

15. Eli Manning, QB New York Giants – 4 or 5 points


16. Cam Newton, QB Carolina Panthers – 2 or 3 points

“He’s starting to diminish,” says Korner. “A couple points would be an estimated knee-jerk reaction.”

17. Troy Polamalu, S Pittsburgh Steelers – 0 points


“I love him and his style of play. He was maybe a point at his peak,” says Korner. “Now he’d have to be combined with someone else. As a defensive player, he’s taking away points so it’s tough to quantify a value to the spread. And it also depends on who he’s playing: A run orientated offense or a pass-first offense.”

18. Darnell Dockett, DT Arizona Cardinals – 0 points


19. DeAngelo Hall, Washington Redskins – 0 points

20. Roddy White, WR Atlanta Falcons – 1 point


“I’m not big on receivers (when it comes to value to the spread), but he’s a big-play guy for them,” says Korner.

If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

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Posted by RissyGold
2 years ago

For what its worth... Larry Fitzgerald has to be on this list. Year after year, "...top 5 receiver in the league..." Ah, no. Even if he had someone decent throwing the ball to him, no. He is will past his prime (and by prime I mean he is past his late 20's large contract signing deal.) Tebow overrated....don't you have to play to be overrated???
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Posted by jgo22
2 years ago

and jason ferret blows!!!!!!!
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Posted by jgo22
2 years ago

tony romo is not an nfl quarteback either just like norv turner is not a coach
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Posted by LIMover55
2 years ago

If your arguing Teabow than you dont watch football ,last year was a perfect storm in denver ,and the surprise factor with Tebow paid off for sure,but obviously thats all it was .It wasnt long before defenses caught on and put Teabow back in the place he belongs ,short yardage, or some weird surprise play.other than that,hes worth to the team besides publicity isnt a factor(.he wont even be on the Jets next year)
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Posted by damonte
2 years ago

How about Ed Reed? I'd say 3 points, especially w/ recent cluster of Raven defensive injuries.
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Posted by earthWake
2 years ago

The only time Tebow got a chance to start, he took a bad team to the AFC divisional round..Damn, he is overated!
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Posted by THE_PUNISHER
2 years ago

ok, ok, Imma give me 2 cents.. Anyway I think this list is great, But im going to comment on the Sanchez/tebow. Sanchez Sucks period. Honestly Tebow could sub and come up with the same if not better performance and numbers. About Greg Mcelroy, maybe he is the best of the bunch, maybe not. For now he doesnt have the nfl knowledge to be great yet. Tebow would do better just because he has talent and skill. he is football built. Sanchez on the other hand, ewww skip him. Maybe the jets should put both sanchez and tebow on the field together say like 70% of all the offense plays. Maybe mcelroy could be better the sanchez, either way put tebow on the field.
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Posted by Taliesin
2 years ago

Nothing says overrated QB except for 5 Super Bowls in his career. Teblow doesn't even deserve to be mentioned in the same article or sport. I see the point spread argument, but that's because of surrounding players. Dude, can't be in the secondary. Although, this year, I'm sure he wish he could. Oh, yeah, I'm sure the JesTs would be winning. Because, they are such winners. What dumbass is betting the spread based on Sanchez or Teblow. They deserve to lose their money. I don't bet the Pats or any team based on one player. That's like putting all your money with Madoff.
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Posted by JackBauer
2 years ago

Good luck with that Smell It....Tebow would need the 2001 Ravens defense to win a Superbowl.....
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Posted by JackBauer
2 years ago

Didn't the NFL players rate Eli Manning as the 50th best player in the league? Morons. 98% of NFL players are idiots. 75+% blow their money within 3 years of retirement. Maybe we should poll homeless people for their ideas on how to fix the budget deficit????
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Posted by prostuntman
2 years ago

a few things. tebow is overrated by the media. im a jets fan and know hes not a QB . my personal opinion, the best QB on that team is Greg Mcelroy! this list has no merit. sanchez is number 2??? no one even thinks hes good. only way he can be on this list is if, in particular, you're saying he doesnt even deserve to be a starting nfl qb. in that sense, I would agree with the rating. ray lewis #5, tom brady #9, urlacher 12, palamalu 17, and hall at 19...these all discredit this list.
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Posted by MrBogey
2 years ago

when will people wake up, Tebow is NOT an NFL qb. stop drinking the cool-aid
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Posted by roofdog03
2 years ago

how could tebow be overated?he dont even get a chance to play and if he did?the jets would be winning!!!
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Top Response

Posted by Taliesin
2 years ago

"Nothing says overrated QB except for 5 Super Bowls in his career. Teblow doesn't even deserve to be mentioned in the same article or sport. I see the point spread argument, but that's because of surrounding players. Dude, can't be in the secondary..."