US PRESSWIRE

Can you be on the 'right side' even when you lose a bet?

When Matthew Stafford completed a 12-yard pass to Ryan Broyles with just 30 seconds left Monday night, it marked the second time over the past week that the spread for an NFL game with a primetime weeknight audience was decided by just a half-point on a last-minute play.

Several books closed with the Bears at -6.5 and Broyles’ touchdown meant the Lions covered on the late score in a 13-7 loss. It comes on the heels of "Safetygate" just four days earlier, when 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh declined a chop-block penalty which nullified a late safety and a subsequent 49ers cover.

Both games have brought up an important betting philosophy question: Is it possible to be on the right side of a wager without actually winning it?

“Yes,” says Covers Expert and Las Vegas-based handicapper Teddy Covers. “In a lot of games – in fact, the majority of games – there is no right side. But you want to be on the right side. When you’re not winning your right side, a bad day turns into a miserable day in a hurry.“

Teddy uses poker as an analogy. He said you can play your cards perfectly for an entire hand, but your opponent draws a lucky one at the right time and your chips are moving across the table. Over time, you just have to trust that you did everything right and eventually the wins are going to come back to you.

But not everyone agrees and that’s what makes the philosophy of handicapping sports so fun.

“The right side is just the winning side. I'm not very quick to label something a bad beat,” says Ben Burns, veteran capper and Covers Expert.

“I've never really been a big believer in there being a 'right side' and 'wrong side' of the bet - only a 'winning' and 'losing' side,” says Sean Murphy, who was on the losing side of "Safetygate", but the winning side of the Packers-Seahawks Monday night controversy on Sept. 24. “I've certainly had my share of plays turn on a bad break or sometimes a lucky break.”

Usually for a football bettor, that lucky card – or unlucky one – comes in the form of a turnover or a special teams play. Turnovers are a tough one to handicap because they’re often intangible, but Teddy says special teams play is one of the most overlooked elements for recreational handicappers.

“But what you really don’t want to do,” he says, “is be on the wrong side and end up making excuses for it.”

What do you think? Is it possible to be on the right side and still lose your bet? Tell us in the comment section below, or on Twitter @Covers.

If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

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Posted by Greedybastard
1 year ago

There is no such thing as being on the right side of a losing bet. If there was such a thing, losing bets would be refunded all of the time, not just in rare instances. Look at the examples provided (Bears and 49ers). There is absolutely no way that a 6.5-7.5 favorite barely scoring over 10 points was the right side.
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Posted by Yotut2010
1 year ago

Roberto Soto is a scam get rid of him covers this guy sucks
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Posted by Yotut2010
1 year ago

Roberto Soto is a scam get rid of him covers this guy sucks
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Posted by fisherton
1 year ago

F*CK OFF ROBERTO SOTO
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Posted by fisherton
1 year ago

F*CK OFF ROBERTO SOTO
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Posted by RobertoSoto
1 year ago

my neighbor's half-sister brought home $13488 the previous month. she is making an income on the internet and bought a $461600 house. All she did was get lucky and put into action the advice exposed on this web site...http://Cat28.com
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Posted by JohnnyJet0023
1 year ago

Back-doors happen all the time and is part of the deal when you invest in a game. The key not mentioned here is to be emotionally capable of handling the situation when you are on the wrong end of the backdoor score. It is very easy to watch what appears to be a very good wager evaporate on a Hail Mary, then lose your mind and try and chase that play with a double bet on the next game available. If your strategy for picking games is sound, back-doors should not have an effect on your long term bankroll. If your money management is not sound, then it really won;t matter in the end.
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Posted by JackBauer
1 year ago

I have to disagree with the GB @ Sea reference. The Seahawks home field advantage is the best in the NFL. Weird things have been happening there for years. Betting a road fave there is always the 'wrong' side. Better off with no action...
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Posted by Bluefin
1 year ago

only if your an ego-maniac
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Posted by brownbull
1 year ago

I admit I oversimplified. Granted, if Clemson/Wake played dozens of times....Wake could probably win some games but this goes back to where Mike below said "more times than not over time." As we all know a blowout does not mean that team would blowout their opponent every time the two played.
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Posted by brownbull
1 year ago

ihavenopatience - take tonight's games for example. Clemson = clearly right side. Tampa = clearly right side. WF & Vikings - clearly wrong sides. Not perfect example but total in Clemson game stayed under...could have easily gone over at the end. Either team could have scored one more td without anything fluky happening...then is that a bad beat? Hard to say, but the sides in both these games were more clear cut. If bases are loaded with no outs for both teams in every inning of a baseball game & your under 6.5 runs bet wins by half a run did you have the right side? Probably not.
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Posted by brownbull
1 year ago

Well said Mike. I agree except I do think a good portion of these games are neutral...where there was no right/wrong side....too close to call. I am a bit stricter when it comes to postmortem grading. Many of these games are so even..come down to one play, one call, one made or missed kick. I throw many of those out (depending on how the game went) since what the real goal is to improve your skill at picking more easy winners where a bad break or two won't end up being a bad beat...where there is a cushion for unlikely events to unfold & not kill your bet. Same vice versa...avoiding more games where you are completely out of it & even "luck" or some breaks in your favor aren't enough to win the bet. I am very surprised someone on here like Ben Burns or Sean Murphy says that the right side is just the winning side. A "professional" knows better. Mike, I guess you & I might talk like that if we were selling our picks rather than just betting our own money.
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Posted by ihavenopatience
1 year ago

I dont think the poker analogy makes any sense in this arguements because in poker youre in control and luck is just a part of the game thusly you can be a loser on the right side if youre constantly making +EV plays. you cant make that arguement for sports betting i think the only time you can always make a +EV play while sports betting is simply by only betting the moneyline on the dogs, because over time its a winning bet. Pretty much everytime you lay juice the advantage is going to the house imo. If there were a right and wrong side in sports betting wouldnt the "right side" always be the favorite? Especially in a sport like football where imo it is the most team oriented game unlike basketball or baseball where one impact player can turn the whole game around. If the O-line doesnt block there is no gap for the RB to run as well as no time for the quarter back to make a good pass. You simply cannot factor in that many intangibles when making a sports bet on how a certain HUMAN BEING will perform that day unlike poker; there are only so many combinations of hands a certain player will play. Now if it were a public fact that all professional players were well aware of the spread on the game then yes you couldnt definitly be on the wrong side of a winning bet.
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Posted by ston442
1 year ago

Of course you can... All of the betters who took Green bay on monday night Vs Seahawks were on the right side, and they lost. Totally possible!
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Posted by mikefrstuttgart
1 year ago

There most certainly is a right and wrong side in all games played.. The right side is the side that should/would get the money more times than not over time.. The wrong side is a losing proposition playing way above their mean.. AKA Getting lucky.. I do a postmortem on every wager I make and grade my past wagers on the criteria of right side and won or lost.. Wrong side won or lost... I would rather be on the right side and lose, than be on the wrong side and win.. I invest in sports to win over time, when one wins on the wrong side it causes all sorts of problems, a false sense of security, you don't learn from the mistakes you made in capping the game in the first place.. If you don't know whether your wager should have won "right side/wrong side" you should find something else to do that doesn't involve money, because you're not intelligent enough to be in this brutal business.. MFS
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Top Response

Posted by RobertoSoto
1 year ago

"my neighbor's half-sister brought home $13488 the previous month. she is making an income on the internet and bought a $461600 house. All she did was get lucky and put into action the advice exposed on this web site...http://Cat28.com"