Covers exclusive: Odds for UFC 153 main card, Machida vs. Henderson

Odds for the main event of UFC 153 between Anderson Silva and Stephan Bonnar were released the middle of last month, with the middleweight title holder, Silva, set as a large -1,350 favorite.

Covers has the exclusive opening odds for the UFC 153 main card bouts, which take place at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 13.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-260) vs. Dave Herman (+200)

Nogueira has been out of commission for nearly a year since Frank Mir broke his arm. Some may wonder what he needs to prove at this point of his illustrious career, but Nogueira surely wants to go out on his own terms and show he can still compete at this level in the UFC.

Herman is far from an elite opponent and should give him the opportunity to get back on track. Assuming he beats Herman, the question then becomes, where does he go from there?

Phil Davis (-350) vs. Wagner Prado (+270)

What previously looked like a massive mismatch on paper, in favor of Davis, turns out to be a much closer battle than when he actually faced Prado the first time around. Davis was truly tested for the second consecutive bout coming off his loss to Evans, and many MMA bettors thought he was in big trouble against Prado before the eye poke ended the fight.

An adjustment from the original line has been made to reflect Prado’s earlier showing, as Davis was originally a monster favorite at -675 compared to +475 for his opponent. Prado has already proven he can hang with Davis, who must be much more careful in the rematch.

Glover Teixeira (-325) vs. Fabio Maldonado (+245)

Teixeira might be the light heavyweight nobody wants to face - just ask Rampage Jackson. MMA fans could see Teixeira and Alexander Gustafsson in a light heavyweight title-eliminator bout eventually if both win their next fights after the winner between Lyoto Machida and Dan Henderson gets a shot at the belt, but Maldonado will do everything he can to prevent that from happening.

Maldonado may not be in that same elite class, but he is at a bit of a crossroads in his career and needs to prove he belongs in the UFC after dropping two in a row. Just two years ago, it was Maldonado who had won 11 in a row before losing a pair of fights that went the distance and resulted in unanimous decisions.


In addition to those UFC 153 odds, has set odds on the upcoming fight between Dan Henderson and Lyoto Machida, which has yet to be determined (Check out the video below):

Lyoto Machida (-220) vs. Dan Henderson (+170)

Both of these former champs already had their chances to win back the belt but backed out for different reasons. Henderson is rehabbing his knee injury while Machida did not feel like he had enough time to fight Jon Jones at UFC 152 and was hoping he could get that matchup back home in Brazil.

Machida was supposed to be next in line for the Jones-Henderson winner from UFC 151, but we all know what happened to that matchup. He will be a very difficult opponent for Hendo, who has proven he should never be counted out over the years but will have his work cut out for him. Machida’s fighting style presents a unique challenge and make him a dangerous foe.

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Posted by Caput43
3 years ago

Key i was kinda thinking the same thing about betting the fight. There is no money to be made off Silva and i believe Bonnar has a legit chance (not saying he wins). Silva is in the upper echelon of the fight game so a Bonnar win is an upset. I probably wont bet the fight. Thanks for the take on Prado/Davis, that is a close fight. I most likely will throw that hundy on Prado. Good analysis i am going to keep looking for your opinion. Keep up the great posts!!!!

Posted by _keyser_soze_
3 years ago

Capu, To me, the Silva/Bonnar fight looks like a trap. Yes, Silva is the GOAT in my opinion (sorry to the Fedor apologists) - and Silva should win the fight easily. That said, Bonnar is a bad stylistic matchup for Silva. Bonnar is going to be bigger than Silva, and Bonnar has the size to control Silva up against the cage. And Bonnar has good enough BJJ to neutralize Silva on the ground. I am not saying Bonnar wins, but the odds are way too small to bet on Silva. I might put a hundred on Bonnar and pull for the upset. I also think that Prado is going to beat Davis for what it is worth. Full disclosure - I usually only bet underdogs in MMA.

Posted by Caput43
3 years ago

Keyser i agree with your assessment. What is your take on Silva vs Bonner?

Posted by _keyser_soze_
3 years ago

Ridiculous odds on the Machida/Hendo fight. Machida is 2-3 in his last five fights and he's not the same guy who won the title. Looking good against Bader is one thing - but Hendo has better footwork than Bader - and he won't be a deer in the headlights. Not saying Hendo is a sure bet, but this is closer to a pick 'em in terms of who wins. Thanks for the odds - Hendo all day at +170.
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Top Response

Posted by _keyser_soze_
3 years ago

"Capu, To me, the Silva/Bonnar fight looks like a trap. Yes, Silva is the GOAT in my opinion (sorry to the Fedor apologists) - and Silva should win the fight easily. That said, Bonnar is a bad stylistic matchup for Silva. Bonnar is going to be big..."

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