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College Four-Play: Week 6 predictions

Late Friday morning in Las Vegas, first day of major league baseball playoffs. Bettors are starting to roll in at the MGM Mirage to place their bets for the afternoon ball games and Saturday’s college football as they arrive to Sin City for the weekend.

As per usual at just about any book, the real flood of money has yet to flow in as bettors ponder who’s mascot head Lee Corso will don this week.

But there is a bit of a drip coming in on one team. It’s a squad you might not expect that’s making some noise in college football and bettors are starting to believe with their wallets.

I’m talking about Northwestern. The school better known for its brainiacs than its football maniacs is now 5-0 straight up and against the spread, meaning the Wildcats are tied as the most profitable school for college football bettors. You know, along with the usuals like San Jose State, Western Kentucky and Fresno State. Of course.

Northwestern sat as a 3-point road underdog at Penn State as of Friday afternoon and the question is: Are these guys as legit as their SAT scores?

“They really know how to hang in a football game,” says Johnny Avello, executive director of race & sports at the Wynn in Las Vegas.

“I’ve liked Northwestern the last two or three years,” says MGM Mirage sportsbook director Jay Rood. “(Head coach Pat Fitzgerald) squeezes every last drop out of them. Most people probably haven’t caught onto that yet – which is good for us.”

The wildcat may be out of the bag now. But there’s another problem to handicap – Northwestern typically stinks in October. The Wildcats are 10-15 in October and 36-17 in the other three months of the regular season in Fitzgerald’s seven years at NW.

And then there’s that thing about the drops and the squeezing and this is a detail not lost on the man holding the vise grips.

"October's our month," Fitzgerald told the Daily Northwestern. "We talked about it in the offseason. We talked about a plan of time managing better, of making sure we get done what we need to get done when we need to get it done, being professional in how we approach it and really challenging our leaders to get the guys in and not let the NCAA hold them back."

Count me in as a believer. Taking Northwestern +3 as my first pick this week.

I’m coming off my best performance of the year last week (3-0-1) to put me at 11-8-1 on the season.

West Virginia at Texas (-7, 74)

“I don’t know if this one will turn out to be like the Baylor game because of Texas’ defense,” says Avello.

It’s hard to imagine anything turning out to be like the Baylor game last week when Geno Smith went video-game and threw for 656 yards and 8 touchdowns in a carnival ride that saw 133 points scored. But Avello said it wouldn’t surprise him if it did up being high scoring – especially if they pile on a bunch late if the game gets a little out of reach.

Highest total on the board this week. I gotta think it’s inflated a little.

Pick: under 74

LSU vs. Florida (+3, 42)


Most of the straight action is on Florida for this game at the Wynn and most of the parlay action is on LSU.

Even though LSU has chowed down on a handful of cupcakes to start the season, Avello says he isn’t convinced a greatly-improved Florida team is quite of the same caliber as LSU just yet.

I agree.

Pick: LSU -3

Iowa State at TCU (-7, 41.5)


The best thing that happened for bettors in this game is that Casey Pachall rolled through that stop sign Thursday night. Now you can get the Frogs at -7 instead of -14 where they opened.

Pick: TCU -7

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Posted by shotta
2 years ago

Update last week jon u went 0-3 tough week hopefully week 7 u get back on track
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Posted by rkhirona
2 years ago

Ouch. The dreaded 0-fer...
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Posted by Rogue
2 years ago

How are the Gators this underrated? I'm all over Florida until they prove me wrong.
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Posted by peteach4him
2 years ago

Jon Campbell, You took LSU and Northwestern on the four play and opposite on the NCAA week 6 staff picks. Whats up with that? Mike
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Posted by tigerswood6969
2 years ago

Only one i might agree with is the under. Everything else on the other side of fence. I would take iowa state straight up too
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Posted by Jon_Campbell
2 years ago

Lancefin - don't forget about my other pick. I could go 0-4, lol! Shubishack - thanks for sharing about your old man, great post. Good luck today guys.
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Posted by lancefin
2 years ago

IF ANYBODY KNOWS CAPPING..........THIS GUY MR. CAMBELL WILL BE 0000 AND 3!!!!!!!!!!.........HERES WHY!!!............Very simple.......west virginia will give it up!! and texas will ablige....Texas will have a little more resistence but still give up 35....but that west virginia " hot butter" defense will get hit for an encore in the tune of 47+ points......prediction..........Texas 49........West Virginia 35. Dont forget......Ncaaf teams will run off 5+ straight over/under results on a regular basis. Overs are highly probable when a team like texas who puts up BIG nimbers plays a defense coming off a high profile track meeet matchup. The numbers Geno put up over shadowed a lot of other stuff like .....WV defense got shredded for the back door cover.....and lack of a running game and special team play will lead to an over route by texas.
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Posted by lancefin
2 years ago

Today i think the bookmakers deserve credit. On the pitt sayacuse matchup they did the old flip technique. You know where they open -2.5.....and then by gametime the early fave is now a dog @ +1.5....lol. Thats a 3 point swing!!!!!!........So I took the gametime+1.5 Pitt on a betting proverb.
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Posted by Skubishack
2 years ago

Northwestern-24 Penn State-23 (NW+3 and Under 47.5 by the hook)... Despite the infamous baggage surrounding the college of Penn State, this should be an entertaining ballgame. I started watching PSU games on TV back East when I was just 8 yrs old and remember nothing but JoePa for all my living yrs involving sports. The entire situation was painful to see and I hope the victims can somehow overcome the horror they faced and find spiritual comfort however they choose. In the early 1970's they use to replay a condensed version on the PSU games early the next morning (Sunday) and I use to always get the Sunday paper for my old man and see the score. Then I'd talk him into a small wager regarding the score. He was not into American sports since he imigrated to the Good Ole USA after WWII. He knew little about football so I was able to con him out of some pocket change each week. He was amazed at how lucky I was. The In-Game wagers were the best... He would shake his head at my luck in guessing comebacks. I never proposed the same wager too much in a row since changing it up kept him from being suspicious of my outstanding luck in the PSU scores. He never caught on until I told him years later. Ha,ha,ha. Great memories of my Old Man. I miss him... even if he was like a drill sergeant to us. Love Ya Dad... and Mom... I'll see you all again soon enough... and I'm looking forward to that.
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Posted by Skubishack
2 years ago

I'll also pocket the 74 points in the TX game and dare both teams to lose thier pride on defense. My best guesstimate is Texas-38 W.VIR-27 ----------- ... and TCU-23 IOWA STATE-17 (Iowa St+7).
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Posted by Skubishack
2 years ago

With all the games going on why take shakey LSU as a road favorite in an SEC game? I feel it is better to pass on this game UNLESS you have a personal interest in either team. I believe LSU will win but something tells me that an extra point gone wrong OR 2 FG's in place of one of the LSU TD's will be the difference in the ATS win for Florida. My best guess is LSU-23 and Florida-21 so the over 42 will win as well. Good Luck with your selection here.
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Posted by Jon_Campbell
2 years ago

Me too bizkilla. Good luck to us both.
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Posted by bizkilla
2 years ago

Now I am deeply concerned as I also have LSU -3. Hope your run from last week continues. Go Tigers!
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Top Response

Posted by shotta
2 years ago

"Update last week jon u went 0-3 tough week hopefully week 7 u get back on track"