US PRESSWIRE

NFL Underdogs: Week 5 pointspread picks

Some people have his and hers hand towels or coffee mugs. Hell, even some pompous pricks have his and hers cars.

Myself and Mrs. Underdogs, we have his and hers dogs.

Hers is a little fluffy white shih-poo, like a teddy bear that came to life. His is a fat snorting bulldog that farts and drools and farts some more. They’re basically the real-life versions of Looney Tunes’ staples Spike and Chester.



But while the bulldog looks it could tear you a new asshole faster than Bill Belichick on a replacement ref, it’s the little dog you have to watch out for.

It spends most of its days staring out the front window, scoping for squirrels, birds and anything else it can kill. It attacks the bulldog, snarling and ripping at its ears. And, if you ever corner the little fur ball… well, let’s just say you have shop teacher’s chance of keeping all your digits intact.

The same goes for NFL betting these days. It’s the little dog you need to watch out for.

Underdogs have gone a profitable 38-23-2 ATS (62.3 percent) through the first four weeks of the schedule, and while the big dogs seem to be the most dangerous – getting all those points - it’s the little dogs doing all the damage.

Heading into Week 5, underdogs of 1-3 points are 19-9-1 ATS (17-12 SU) and covering at a 65.5 percent rate. There are only three teams tagged as an underdog of three points or less this week: St. Louis, Seattle and Washington.

NFL underdogs between 3.5-6 points are 8-5 ATS (6-7 SU), pups of 6.5-9.5 points are 9-6-1 ATS (3-13 SU, and the double-digit dogs of 10 points or more are just 2-3 ATS and 1-4 SU, with the Arizona Cardinals’ (+13) 20-18 win at New England serving as that lone double-digit dog upset.

Based on that, you’d think I’d be all over the little dogs this Sunday. But, as mentioned above, his dog is a big fat bulldog. And there’s no bigger fatter bulldog on the board than the Cleveland Browns +9.5 visiting the New York Giants.

Pick:
Cleveland +9.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 43)

While we’re on the subject of dogs, did you hear the rumor that Mike Vick broke both his legs in a car accident Wednesday?

The latest in a long line of internet hoaxes prompted some harsh words for the former dog fighter through social media, with people applauding the fake accident report and spouting things like “karma is a muthaf-cker.”

I’m no fan of Vick or his past exploits. But the athlete in me wishes that on no man. And for all of you people claiming “karma” on No. 7, let’s just hope you’re not betting on the Steelers this weekend.

Vick’s legs are fine and an old and busted Steelers defense is going to find out just how fine Sunday.

Pick: Philadelphia +3.5

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51.5)

Forget the Manning vs. Brady headline for this game – if the relentless media coverage will let you – and focus on the facts: The Broncos have been especially profitable in Foxboro, posting a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven trips to the Boston outskirts.

And of course, there’s Manning vs. Brady

Damn it! Curse you media brain wash!

Pick: Denver +6.5

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 9-2-1 ATS

If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

            share   SHARE   rss   RSS FEED   email   EMAIL   print   PRINT
Hide All Responses
avatar

Posted by ApocalypseLater
1 year ago

great looking picks today! Broncos and Eagles are both the superior teams, getting points... gotta love it!
avatar

Posted by WatsOnYourMind
1 year ago

The Master Says: Panthers Win and Vikings Lose, Ravens Stumble and Steelers Blues.
avatar

Posted by aldogg702
1 year ago

brownies and jags
avatar

Posted by WatsOnYourMind
1 year ago

You are pathetic.
avatar

Posted by greekbanker
1 year ago

Got also the Browns, thinking of the Broncos, but I am big on the Steelers today! Good luck.
avatar

Posted by SoCal311
1 year ago

Pitt are 4-0 ats of bye us they get back Troy Harrison n mendinhall taking pitt... Since everyone is pounding the brown dogs I'm taking giants at 7.5(it dropped dramatically from 9.5). Either team could win but the ponies suck on the road taking the over at 51.go
avatar

Posted by KasperNV
1 year ago

Logan, How come most of the picks are same as the wise-guy 10 unit picks from bettingresource.com They are going to ban you....did you not read their rules of subscription. By posting their plays, you are making it worse for all the other clients like me because once the public finds out about their success, everyone is going to hop on the ship and its going to sink because of line moves! Nice plug, come on man!!
avatar

Posted by whitesnake1983
1 year ago

I don't think there is value in these picks - only Cleveland, and only because some days Eli Manning has his period and is completely different player, if he is at his current shown form, the Giants will kill Cleveland with at least 2 TD margin. Steelers and Philly is an interesting encounter, but really - Vick is taking a lot of time to throw the ball and Polamalu and the other will be all over him and the Steelers come from a bye week, so they'll be rested and ready for the Eagles. And of course, betting on Manning vs Brady is at least stupid, not to call it insane - there were some "specialists" last week that swore on their lives that the Bills will cover - I went on and played all of the additional minus points on the Patriots, simply because when they come out of a 2 game losing streak, they not only win, they kill! And with the Broncos defense - come on, we've all watched them against real good offenses - the Texans and the Falcons smashed them and let them score 2 TDs in the last quarter, but both games were long gone for the Broncos, so if you think that Brady will say: Hey, man, the Broncos are 5-2 ATS here at Foxboro - yeah, like it happen last year in the play-offs! Come on, man be real, there are really good dogs this week, and you're going with these ones? You have Washington, Indianapolis and the Jets - these are the dogs I like, none of yours will tick!
avatar

Posted by J_Logan
1 year ago

The levels some people will go never amazes me. Jokes on him when I go 0-3 today! Sucker!
avatar

Posted by collieweed24
1 year ago

I'm on Philly, that D will win that game.
avatar

Posted by KasperNV
1 year ago

I like the pics especially the Broncos. BOL.
avatar

Posted by dude1618
1 year ago

posting a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven trips to the Boston outskirts. DOESNT matter , two completely different teams. i'm not saying take NE here just cause i am from MA. im not even a Pats fan. 5-2 ATS last 7 trips, big fucking deal, how many of those teams were shit Denver teams. I learned this from my psychology professor in high school "If you throw enough shit on the wall, eventually some of it sticks". Any one betting denver because they are 5-2 ATS the last 7 years in NE needs to take a vision quest a.s.a.p. because it doesn't meant a thing now
avatar

Posted by J_Logan
1 year ago

I'm not a huge believer in trends and there is more to this pick than what's in the column. But name another team with that type of success ATS in Foxoboro? Some teams - no matter how good or bad - play well against others from year to year. It's a weird thing that happens in all sports, not just NFL. It especially happens in college basketball. I'll go ahead and book that "vision quest" ASAP. Thanks for reading.
avatar

Posted by ykmichael
1 year ago

Eagles +3.5, hmmm.
avatar

Posted by lvexpert41
1 year ago

Is this 9-2-1 documented????? I haven't seen your picks until this week. Must win for steelers. Let down for philly.
avatar

Posted by J_Logan
1 year ago

You can look at the past NFL Underdogs picks at my column archive: http://www.covers.com/articles/colarchive.aspx?topID=249
avatar

Posted by shah634
1 year ago

what do u mean u have only see his picks this week its up every week lol newb
avatar

Posted by anklbrkr24
1 year ago

Any thoughts on Bal vs. KC? the line is KC +5.5 which sounds fishy to me since KC got their butts kick last week. Ravens are playing really good on both sides of the field.
avatar

Posted by YukonTrav
1 year ago

you could say the same thing about the Chic/Jax line; Jax looks like a college team, utterly hopeless. Yet only +6? clearly, Vegas is factoring in some situational angles in both games (for ex, Chic coming off an emotional prime time win then travelling) and ignoring the on-the-field stats. Both games, if they were played statistically, are lopsided. But as we know, games are played (just) by statistics! Good luck ...
avatar

Posted by J_Logan
1 year ago

That line was weird around 5, which sometimes means the oddsmakers don't know what the hell to do with it and will let the betting public decide what the real spread should be. And, as of Saturday night, the spread is a TD at some places, which I think looks a little more accurate. I took Baltimore -5. Arrowhead is not what it used to be and I think KC still gets credit for that faded home-field advantage.
avatar

Posted by anklbrkr24
1 year ago

Any thoughts on Bal vs. KC? the line is KC +5.5 which sounds fishy to me since KC got their butts kick last week. Ravens are playing really good on both sides of the field.
avatar

Posted by Jon_Campbell
1 year ago

J-lo, that is a man's dog. You are truly worthy of the Mr. Underdogs title.
avatar

Posted by theclaw
1 year ago

Nice job, great start !! I'm with you on the Philly game but against you with the Pats. However, I will disagree with your big fat bulldog call. The browns are very overvalued, they are being out-played on the field by far more than the final scores of their games. They look much better then they are. The Giants at 2-2 and coming off a 2cd divisional loss will blow-out those dogs on sunday.
avatar

Posted by Wizerguy
1 year ago

Let me also congradulate you on your record. Very well done indeed. Like your Denver Pick. However, Im with Yukon and not a fan of the Philly pick. No way Tomlin/Rothlesburger and the 2 defensive stalworths mentioned above allow thier team to go 1-3. Philly barely winning games. Vick will be pressured and make mistakes. Pitt 27 17 as my man Yukon says. Good Luck this weekend!
avatar

Posted by YukonTrav
1 year ago

thanks bro, and good luck to you eh? cheers!
         1   2    next page    last page
You are currently not logged in.
Login | Signup | Help
You must be logged in to post a comment.

Top Response

Posted by J_Logan
1 year ago

"We usually ban people who post ads for other sites in our articles, but this is the most ridiculous shit I've ever seen in all my years writing for Covers. I just had to respond. To think that anyone would rip off your "wise-guy 10-unit picks" let al..."