Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Chris Elliott will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.
Most Overrated Top 25 Team: Wisconsin Badgers (3-1, 0-4 ATS)
After opening the season ranked No. 12, a 3-1 start has pushed the Badgers back to No. 23 as they have failed to meet expectations with an 0-4 record ATS. Their three wins were all at home against teams with an overall combined record of 5-7 on the season.
Wisconsin travels to No. 22 Nebraska in an important Big Ten matchup Saturday. The Cornhuskers are 3-0 at home, outscoring their opponents by a combined 164-40. Look for Nebraska to pull out the victory here and vault past Wisconsin in the standings. Wisconsin is currently an early 13.5 dog, although I believe the Badgers will lose SU, I'm putting my money on the team plus the points.
Most Underrated Top 25 Team: Oregon State Beavers (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
The Beavers have only played two games this season following a postponed game and a bye week. At 2-0, they are one victory short of their entire 2011 total. It's hard to argue with the squad as their two victories were against ranked opponents – then-ranked No. 13 Wisconsin and No. 19 UCLA.
They travel to Arizona to take on the No. 22 ranked Wildcats (3-1) Saturday. One of the Beavers’ three wins last season came against the Wildcats at home, 37-27. The Beavers are ranked 18th in the nation allowing 13.5 ppg and they are currently available as 3-point underdogs Saturday.
Unranked team that should be ranked: Boise State Broncos (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
The Broncos grinded out a hard fought 7-6 victory at home last week against a very good BYU squad. They narrowly missed the USA Today Top 25 coming in ranked No. 27 while they are ranked No. 24 in the AP Top 25. Their lone loss on the season was a competitive 17-13 road loss to then-ranked No. 13 Michigan State.
The Broncos head to New Mexico to battle the 2-2 Lobos Saturday. Boise State has owned the Lobos in their three all-time meetings, winning all three games including a 45-0 victory at home last year. New Mexico's lone contest against a ranked team this season was a 45-0 loss at No. 17 Texas. The Broncos are currently available at -26.5.