Tackling the NFL totals when 2-0 over/under teams face off
The Chiefs and the Saints are both sucking wind at 0-2. Teams that open with two straight losses have about a 1-in-8 chance of making the playoffs, and at 0-3 your odds are about the same as a homeless man gaining entrance to a Romney fundraiser.
But for totals players who look for opportunities in the points-fat NFL of 2012, the Kansas City at New Orleans game is hog heaven. Sure, the number (53) is bloated, but the Chiefs and Saints have each shown the ability to score – and, just as importantly, be scored on.
“Who would dare play the under on the Saints?” points out Covers Expert Larry Ness
After last week, when the Saints and Panthers put up 62 points (the number was 53.5), not many sane bettors would look to the under. New Orleans has given up 461 yards a game as the Saints continue to treat defense as an annoying inconvenience.
In the Saints’ defense ... well, there is none, other than that they have faced two unconventional quarterbacks (Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton) in the first two weeks and should have at least slightly better luck with pocket-passer Matt Cassel.
Kansas City has had its own troubles under defensive-minded head coach Romeo Crennel. The Chiefs are tied with the Saints for dead last in points allowed, with 75.
Ness also seems to like the over chances in Washington’s game at home against Cincinnati. Both of those teams have also gone over twice in a row, but the tea leaves are all trending toward topping the number (49).
“Cincinnati,” points out Ness, “played well defensively last year but has now allowed 44 and 27 points in the first two games. And Washington with RGIII looks like a dead over team.”
Until, obviously, oddsmakers start to pump up the line. The Cincy-Washington total opened at 46.5 and is still drawing interest at 49. Bettors are also on the over in the Saints-Chiefs game, but not by as great a margin.