Game 4 trend is critical for NCAAF teams - and bettors
Our powerful database tells us that Game 4 is a critical turning point for most college football teams, especially if they’re playing off their first loss of the season.
From a handicapping perspective, the venue goes a long way in determining Game 4 ATS results as well. Check out the situations of teams in Game 4, off their initial loss of the season, since 1980…
Teams playing at home in this role tend to perform poorly as evidenced by a 90-109-3 ATS overall mark since 1980. Home teams in that role this week include: Arizona State, Michigan State, Tennessee, USC, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest – with Louisiana Lafayette on deck next week.
If these teams are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season (Wake Forest and Louisiana Lafayette) they dip to 6-19-2 ATS. To top it off, if they are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season and are facing a foe that is not off a spread win of 35 or more points in its last game, these bummed-out hosts sink to 3-19-2 ATS. Wake Forest finds itself in this precarious role this week.
Teams playing away in this role somehow find pointspread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 101-78-2-1 ATS dating back to 1980. This week finds BYU, Maryland, USF, Utah State and Virginia taking to the road this week after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week (Note: Indiana will journey out in this role next week).
When these teams are also off an ATS loss, they improve to 89-56-1 ATS in these “Game 4 On The Floor” situations, with all of the above teams, except Utah State, in this role week. And if these teams off a spread loss are facing an opponent that is off a SU and ATS loss, they ratchet up to 28-11 ATS, including 17-4 ATS if the won seven or fewer games last season. That would put Ole Miss in this desirable role this week.