Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Chris Elliott will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.
Most overrated Top 25 team: Kansas State Wildcats (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Kansas State was ranked 20th after Week 1 and I dubbed it the most underrated team in the Top 25. Now, the Wildcats sit 13th overall, which I believe is a few ranks above where they deserve, especially after their performance last week.
On paper, they came away with a solid two-touchdown victory in Week 3. At closer look, they were at home against a much weaker North Texas squad that had the deficit at one point midway through the third quarter.
K-State hits the road for the first time this season in Week 4 and it couldn't be a much tougher opponent then the well-rested No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners coming off a bye week. The Sooners are available at -13.5 and should come away with the big victory.Most underrated Top 25 team: UCLA Bruins (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
The Bruins were my most underrated team last week and, after their impressive victory at home, they jumped up from No. 23 to No. 19 in the polls. I'm riding this pony one more week as I expect the team to pull out another big home victory against Pac-12 rival Oregon State.
The Beavers are 1-0 coming off a bye week and a postponed game opening week. Their lone game was a 10-7 victory over then-No. 14 Wisconsin. Playing at the Rose Bowl is a huge home-field advantage, so expect the Bruins offense to be the difference. UCLA is currently a 9.5-point favorite.Unranked team that should be ranked: Baylor Bears (2-0)
I had the Bears as my top unranked team heading into Week 2. After a bye week and a convincing home victory over a competitive Sam Houston State team, the team is still on the outside looking in.
Baylor has outscored its opponents 107-47 in two home games this season. In Week 4 they venture to Louisiana-Monroe. The Warhawks have been very impressive so far with an OT victory versus Arkansas and an OT loss at Auburn.
That being said, both the Razorbacks and Tigers are proving to be pretenders this year. Baylor is available -7 at most books. Look for the team to pull out the victory this week and vault into the Top 25.