Spotting outright upsets in college football this year is like snapping a pic of Sasquatch doing body shots off the Loch Ness Monster.
Heading into Week 3, teams tagged as underdogs by the oddsmakers are just 26-115 SU – winning just over 18 percent of the games. Of course, this number will come down a bit with conference play kicking off. But finding moneyline value in underdogs early in the season is a tough task for even the savviest of bettors.
So that’s why we’re about to puff out our cheeks and toot our own horn rather loudly. Last week, we picked three outright upsets and two of them cashed in big time
Utah State stunned Utah as a +256 moneyline dog and Oregon State whipped Wisconsin in Corvallis paying out at +275.
With those results swelling up our bankrolls – among other things – we take another stab at selecting three live dogs in Week 3 that have the potential to not only cover the spread but win outright.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Missouri Tigers (-6.5, 64.5)
The Pac-12 has been a constant in our first two upset articles, so why mess with a good thing? The Sun Devils (+230 moneyline vs. Missouri) put a whoopin’ on Illinois last weekend, and even though the Illini were missing their starting QB, Nathan Scheelhaase could have done little to stop the 48 points ASU hung on the scoreboard.
The Sun Devils beat Missouri in overtime last season and have a good idea of what to expect from Tigers dual-threat James Franklin this time around. This spread has dropped from as high as Mizzou -7.5 and 46 percent of Covers Consensus ATS picks are on ASU.Rice Owls at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-20.5, 66.5)
Maybe it’s the 2-1 record last week or the sky-high total which makes us think anything can happen with that many points expected – we’re going out on a 20.5-point limb and stating the Owls upset the Bulldogs as +900 moneyline pups.
Rice opened with a 49-24 loss to an underrated UCLA squad then upset Kansas, 25-24, as a 12.5-point underdog last weekend. The Owls have a potent rushing attack that can wear down defenses behind RBs Charles Ross and Turner Petersen, as well as dual-threat QB Taylor McHargue. La Tech missed Week 1 due to Hurricane Isaac and outlasted a poor Houston team in a 56-49 shootout in Week 2. Forty-six percent of Cover Consensus picks are selecting the Owls to at least cover Saturday.Virginia Cavaliers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10.5, 52.5)
Outside of Florida State and maybe two others, is one ACC team really 10 points better than the next? Georgia Tech isn’t among those three teams and is giving an awful lot of points to a Cavs squad (+315 moneyline vs. GT) that has a ton of momentum after a win – albeit an ugly, ugly win - over Penn State and its place kicker in Week 2.
Virginia defeated the Jackets 24-21 as a 7.5-point home dog last year, outgaining GT 407- 296. The Cavaliers offensive line treated the Jackets defense like Bisquick in a skillet – pancaked ‘em – and bring back three of those guys this season. Forty-one percent of Covers Consensus ATS picks are siding with Virginia.