Book Report: Jets remain public's favorite Super Bowl pick

By RICHARD GARDNER

Richard Gardner is the head oddsmaker for Bodog.com.

NFL teams are reporting daily to training camps around the country, so it’s a perfect time to look at some early betting trends on our NFL futures.

If you remember back to last season’s playoffs and the corresponding Book Reports, the New York Jets were a chic pick for bettors once Coach Rex Ryan’s team snuck into the playoffs and then beat Cincinnati in the playoff opener. The Jets took plenty of action to win the Super Bowl as bettors looked to cash in with long odds. Of course New York lost in the AFC title game to the Indianapolis Colts, but there has been a major carryover effect. The Jets currently have taken the most handle of any team to win Super Bowl XLV.

New York, which got rid of running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington and guard Alan Faneca but added LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Jason Taylor and Antonio Cromartie, is currently 10/1 to win the Super Bowl and it is getting slightly more than 10 percent of the total Super Bowl futures handle at Bodog – the only team above 10 percent.

And clearly bettors believe that Brett Favre will return to the Minnesota Vikings this season as the Vikings (12/1) have received the second-biggest futures handle at 9.45 percent. I’m guessing that number plummets if by some miracle Favre retires and Tarvaris Jackson is under center for that rematch of the NFC Championship Game in New Orleans to kick off the 2010 season.

The champion Saints are co-second favorites at 10/1 with Dallas, San Diego and the Jets to win Super Bowl XLV, but the Cowboys – who could become the first host team to play in its own Super Bowl – are getting nearly nine percent of the handle while New Orleans is barely above six percent.

Bettors probably know that of the past 11 Super Bowl winners, five failed to qualify for the playoffs the following year and three lost their first playoff game. The last champ to win a playoff game the following season was New England beating Jacksonville in January 2006.

Indianapolis is the current favorite at Bodog to win the Super Bowl at 9/1 and the Colts are seeing 7.8 percent of the total handle. Of course one of the jinxes in the NFL is that the Super Bowl loser tends to go belly up the following season.

The Arizona Cardinals debunked that myth a bit last year when they returned to the playoffs following a loss to the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa, but seven of the previous eight runner-ups failed to reach the postseason. But no team has been more consistent than Peyton Manning’s Colts, who have strung together an NFL-record seven consecutive seasons of 12 or more victories.

And speaking of win totals, bettors are crushing the over on the Colts season win total (11) with better than 94 percent of the action on the prop. There are only two over/under handles that are more lopsided than Indy’s: the Oakland Raiders over six wins at 94 percent and the New York Giants over 8.5 wins at 97 percent.

The teams with the biggest under handle are the Jacksonville Jaguars under seven wins (70 percent), the Tennessee Titans under 8.5 (70 percent, the Carolina Panthers under 7.5 (76 percent), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 5.5 (77 percent), the St. Louis Rams under five (78 percent) and the “under champion” Seattle Seahawks at 7.5 wins (85 percent).

And finally, looking at the divisional odds, the Cowboys at 11/10 to win the NFC East are taking the biggest handle (71 percent of NFC East bets) of any team in any division, followed by the Baltimore Ravens at 10/11 to win the AFC North (70 percent).

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Posted by tallguyindc
2 years ago

This doesn't surprise me at all. Remember the question wasn't who is getting the most action, not who will win. People could feel the Jets are comparatively undervalued. It makes sense. I think I read somewhere that the public avoids the huge favorites and the huge underdogs in futures. Typically, go at a team that is good but not great. Throw in the fact that team represents a large metro area and has a large fan base but hasn't been really good in quite awhile. I don't think the Jets will win the Super Bowl and I haven't bet on them, but I think the people on this board saying they have "no chance" are totally wrong. I'm not sure Sanchez was that bad last year when you compare him to all other rookie quarterbacks and not all quarterbacks in general. As a matter of fact, I think he had a pretty good rookie season. Quarterbacks typically get a lot better in year 2. They definitely have a shot. But a lot of teams have a shot. We'll just see. ...

Posted by Coloneljim
2 years ago

Jets are beginning to sound like the Eagles. Talking Super Bowl before training camp even begins.

Posted by RedDog54
2 years ago

The Jets! You gotta be frickin kidding me!!!

Posted by Mazman80
2 years ago

amd, couldn't agree with you more. I've been saying the same thing to everyone. Look at their schedule and who they beat last year. Yeah they made it to the AFC championship game but they backed in. They should've had an 8-8 record if the Colts actually played week 16 and thus missing the playoffs. The funniest thing about this whole thing is once again the Jets fans actually believe they are the team to beat. I love to see the Jets getting backed so much because it shows how many smucks are out there. Look how many teams they beat last year with a WINNING record. TWO!!! Not kidding. That's it. When did those wins happen? Week 1 and Week 2 (you can't really count the Colts as a win). This team may have been the #1 rushing team but that's because Mark Sanchez was that bad. #1 defense in the league? Who did they prove that against? The Bucs or the Raiders. The defense took teams by surprise last year. That won't happen again. Let's see how they fare this year before the bye week because that will show how good the Jets really are with games against the Ravens, Patriots, Dolphins, and Vikings. If they can make it to the bye week with a 4-2 record then I'll be impressed but not convinced. I see the Jets going about 8-8 or worse. With games against the Ravens, Patriots, Dolphins, Vikings, Packers, Texans, Bengels, and Steelers prove me wrong.

Posted by Snookslayer
2 years ago

allne10 .... 5 Dimes or The Greek. Fair odds and nationally recognized/trusted sites.

Posted by MagicBoy
2 years ago

ill take a shot a packers winning it all

Posted by allne10
2 years ago

Where do you advise for a good online site to use Snookslayer for bettors like myself who live in the U.S?? Im always looking for a place with faster payouts and better lines.

Posted by amd
2 years ago

The Jets won't even get to the AFC Championship game with that piece of shit QB. Ravens should win the AFC....contenders will be Colts, Bengals, Dolphins and Texans. Public has a short memory as they forget that even the jets head coach counted his team out of the playoffs in week 14. Look at their record last year and look at the teams that beat the Jets. Why all the love for the Jets? They have a solid offensive line but Sanchez couldn't read a defensive scheme to save his life. The O line better allow Shonn Green a little running room because if Sanchez is faced with 3rd and 7, it will be more of 2009 this year for the Jets.

Posted by quantrell45
2 years ago

DA RAMS or DA LIONS ...bet the wife and kids.. keep the house

Posted by mafioso
2 years ago

The Jets chances of winning the superbowl are just as good as the Cleveland Cavs winning an NBA title, What Jets backers arent realizing is that the day of the trent dilfer game manager days are Over in the NFL, Its a Passing league, thats why you dont see the same tired ass coaches getting recycled over and over again. Sanches showed me nothing last season, His best TD pass was a huge hold that wasnt called when they beat the chargers, The kid is the weak link.

Posted by Snookslayer
2 years ago

Bodog odds.?. I'd rather flush my money down the toilet. True, Colts are 9:1 at Bodog and most sites.... but look at some of the long shots: Bucs.... Bodog offers 150:1 while most sites show 190:1 Rams... Bodog offers 100:1 while most sites show 280:1 Bills... Bodog offers 100:1 while most sites show 220:1 Same is true for almost all other teams other than a couple of favorites. If you're betting sports futures (or any other sports bet), Bodog is the worst site you could use. Poker and horse-racing is all they're good for. ....................................................................................... As for the Jets winning a SuperBowl, no chance in hell. My long shots to win the SuperBowl this year: Redskins at 50:1 and Dolphins at 35:1. McNabb is always dangerous and Parcels is entering his 3rd year at Miami. Solid odds for those teams IMO.

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Top Response

Posted by Mazman80
2 years ago

"amd, couldn't agree with you more. I've been saying the same thing to everyone. Look at their schedule and who they beat last year. Yeah they made it to the AFC championship game but they backed in. They should've had an 8-8 record if the Colts a..."

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MLB: Kansas City vs. Houston

Pick:: U (KC at HOU)
Start:: May 20, 2013 - 8:10 PM
Capper:: Bryan Power
Offered at:: 5dimes @ Under 9 100
Analysis:

1* Under Royals/Astros (8:10 ET): I went a perfect 9-0 this weekend, including 5 for 5 in MLB! One of my Saturday winners (Oakland) came at the expense of the Kansas City Royals, who would eventually get swept by the A's, scoring only five total runs in the process. They certainly seem to have a more favorable opponent to start the week, but don't be surprised to see fewer runs scored than expected in Monday's opener....

KC will send Jeremy Guthrie out to the mound tonight. He should have no problem containing an Astros lineup that was shut out yesterday in Pittsburgh, losing for the 7th time in 9 games. While Guthrie is coming off his worst showing of 2013 last time out, his overall numbers remain impressive; he's 5-1 with a 2.82 ERA over eight starts. He's also never lost to Houston in three career outings, turning in a 3.68 ERA and 1.045 WHIP. Two of those starts came last year.

The problem with taking the Royals here though is the fact their offense is struggling mightily right now and that they average only 2.9 runs per game vs. lefties. That should give Houston southpaw Dallas Keuchel a decent shot at a quality outing. The Royals, like the Astros, come into this series having lost 7 of 9. In those seven losses, the Kansas City offense has scored a grand total of 17 runs. This game could easily turn into a pitcher's duel with the two inept offenses. 1* Under KC/Houston.

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