Evan Korn has written for Ring Magazine and is an editor for the boxing blog www.newyork.fighthype.com.
The assumption among most is as followed: Manny Pacquiao should have few problems defeating Joshua Clottey Saturday evening.
A Pacquiao victory at Cowboys Stadium, while probable, is not assured.
Regardless of the bout’s outcome, Clottey will be the biggest, strongest fighter Pacquiao has ever faced.
One glance at the rugged welterweight contender confirms that suspicion.
At the pre-fight presser in New York City back in January, Clottey and Pacquiao hyped the fight for various media types. As the two stood side by side on the elevated theatre at Madison Square Garden stage, the size difference became apparent. Clottey’s broad torso and squat body dwarfed Pacquiao’s comparatively smaller frame.
Pacquiao is a gifted fighter who has been built into a world class welterweight.
Clottey, the Ghanaian veteran, is a chiseled mass of layered muscle who has fought at or above the welterweight limit for more than a decade. As fight night approaches, the question plaguing mankind for centuries will be asked: Does size matter?
As we have learned in recent years, especially when Pacquiao fights, skill often trumps size.
Clottey’s brute strength, though, has given numerous top welterweights problems. Both Antonio Margarito and Miguel Cotto struggled to figure out Clottey’s high-defensive guard, which shields his face and upper body. Against Zab Judah, a speedy southpaw, Clottey’s physical strength and steady attack wore down the smaller man over the second half of the fight. Clottey’s brute strength could be the elixir that halts Pacquiao’s blazing run of success.
Pacquiao is a physical marvel, a pugilist who has looked more destructive as he has climbed the scales. He weathered some punishing left hooks to the body from Cotto, then brutalized the former two-division champion en route to a 12th-round TKO. Clottey’s offensive arsenal is not as developed as Cotto, but he should be more durable.
Durability and size are not enough to beat Pacquiao. Clottey will have to up his work rate and look for space to counter. In order for Clottey to upset the apple cart, his size and strength must neutralize Pacquiao’s otherworldly speed.
Otherwise, he’ll be just another big guy used as target practice for the PacMan.
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The odds on Pacquiao have increased to -800 at many sportsbooks. According to renowned boxing linesmaker Joey Oddessa, that’s a bit pricey even for a fighter of Pacquiao’s caliber.
“The number has gone too high,” says Oddessa.
“If Manny is thinking about Floyd (Mayweather) and not Clottey, Clottey could pull off the upset. Do I think he’s going to? I don’t.”
While Clottey at +500 or higher might seem like a great value bet, Oddessa thinks there are too many factors working against the Ghanian.
“It will be really tough to win a decision in Texas against, arguably, the No. 1 guy on the planet right now,” he says.
Despite the money line not presenting excellent value in either direction, there are still quality values to be had.
“I think it’s an over fight,” says Oddessa. “Clottey has been in with some big punchers and is against the smaller guy, despite Manny looking like this great physical specimen. This fight going the distance could be a moral victory for Clottey, but I expect Clottey to give it 110 percent.”
Weekend Picks
Evan Korn is 6-1-1 with his boxing picks over the past two weeks.
In the Pacquiao-Clottey fight, over 9.5 rounds (-170) is the play
Alfonso Gomez (-230) is the bet against faded Jose Luis Castillo
Paul Smith (-260) against Tony Dodson
David Diaz (+275-300) is a solid value against Humberto Soto