What bettors need to know: Patriots at Saints

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 56.5)

The last team to have an undefeated regular season looks to end the Saints' attempt at perfection Monday night in the Big Easy.

Tom Brady and the 7-3 Patriots roll into the Superdome for a clash with Drew Brees and the 10-0 Saints. The game features the top two offenses in the NFL, with both units averaging more than 400 yards per game.

Line movement

The Saints opened as 3-point favorites, but heavy action on the Patriots forced some books to move New Orleans to as low as 1-point chalk. The posted total of 55.5 has moved to 56.5, with the majority of bets coming in on the over.

Injury report

New Orleans has been banged up a bit in recent weeks, but hopes to have three significant starters back in the lineup this week. Running back Reggie Bush (knee), cornerback Jabari Greer (groin) and defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (knee) are all listed as probable on the team's injury report.

The Pats aren't expected to be missing any of their star players Monday, though a number of players were limited in practice drills this week. Tackle Matt Light, cornerback Shawn Springs and running back Sammy Morris are all listed as questionable.

Saints keep marching in

The Saints continue to light up the scoreboard, leading the league with an average of 36.4 points per game. New Orleans has not been held to less than 24 points in its first 10 games, eclipsing the 40-point plateau four times.

Oddsmakers have caught on, however. Despite putting up 30, 28 and 38 points the past three weeks, New Orleans has gone under in two of those games. The lone over in that span came by half a point, a 28-23 victory over the Rams two weeks ago.

The Saints are also 1-3 against the spread in their last four contests.

Brady's back

Early in the season, there were questions about how long it would take Pats QB Tom Brady to shake off the rust after missing nearly all last season with a knee injury. No one's asking those questions anymore.

After throwing for 300 yards only once in his first five games, the Michigan alum has tossed for 300-plus yards in each of his past five contests, with 14 touchdown passes and just four interceptions.

“I think we’re obviously playing a lot better football as a unit,” Brady said. “My job is pretty simple when they block the way they block and Randy (Moss) and Wes (Welker) are out there doing their thing.”

In the spotlight

Playing in front of a national audience is nothing new for the Patriots. Including playoffs, New England has been on national TV 20 times in the past four seasons. The Patriots have won 11 of those contests, going 11-8-1 ATS and 10-8-2 over/under.

New Orleans has been in the national spotlight only 12 times in that span, going 7-5 straight up and 5-6-1 ATS. Nine of those 12 games went over the total.

No lead is safe

Halftime leads haven't always been safe for the Patriots this season. In all three of its losses, New England held a halftime advantage before being outscored by a combined 47-10 score in defeats at the Colts, Jets and Broncos.

That could spell doom against the Saints, who have overcome sizable halftime deficits in two of their wins. New Orleans rallied from a 24-10 hole to beat the Dolphins 46-34 in Week 7, and outscored the Panthers 24-3 in the second half of a 30-20 victory in Week 9.

Trends

New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a favourite, and 12-4-1 in its last 17 overall. The Patriots are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 games on the road.

The over is 4-0 in the Saints'last four Monday games, 14-3-1 in their last 18 home games and 16-4-1 in their last 21 games on field turf. The Patriots have seen the over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games on field turf and 12-5 in their last 17 games as an underdog.

If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

            share   SHARE   rss   RSS FEED   email   EMAIL   print   PRINT
Hide All Responses
avatar

Posted by mike_68147
4 years ago

maximus....you can't count those chicken's before the eggs hatch...
avatar

Posted by macdees
4 years ago

the confidence of new orleans bettors was justified. shout out and thanks to all the squares talking about the over that alerted me to the under as the play. it wasn't easy but it was a glorious under tonight. going to celebrate "good luck with your under its ina dome". classic, thank you so much
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
4 years ago

TONIGHT!!!!!!!!!! I AM KING!!!!!!!!!!! ALL YOU UNDER BETTORS THANK YOU FOR MAKIN MY INVESTMENT EVEN MORE BANKABLE.
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
4 years ago

pickinperfecto start selecting your favorite color.......this is a cake walk in the makin. DAAAAAAAM!!!!!!! Im happy to just pick up $3,500.00 . wish i had it like dat. play on playa!
avatar

Posted by pickinperfecto
4 years ago

Jeremy "shocks-me", reggie burns like a "bush",for drew the game will be a "breeze" and marcus will "cold-stun" the crowd!!! On defense-darren will be even "sharper". Its time for the next step for the Saints!!!!! IM SURE THEY KNOW IT!!! I have $100,000.00 equity line wager with Harrahs funds wired into the sportsbook at Reno. I literally bet the ranch. Only its one of 10 rental property's equity. 1 pick TONITE!!!! WILL=A 2010-VIPER!!! if i lose I will have to fix up and flip 1 house to recover. IM THINKIN 500 + HORSEPOWER IN 2hrs and 45min FROM NOW!!!!!!!LOL
avatar

Posted by pickinperfecto
4 years ago

speed speed and more speed. This is a different pats team, good but not AS good as they use to be. Saint are better than they use to be. 55-24 Saints on a laugher. lol
avatar

Posted by TRAINOFTHOUGHT
4 years ago

I gotta go with the Saints here, I feel really relaxed with this pick here's why, New Orleans will be playing to send a message to the NFL, the message is, "We have arrived" nobody's afraid of new England, they're too old and too slow on "D". I got the Saints scoring 40+ on them tonight I see a 47-23 Saints victory, don't let their defense get into a groove early and have Brady on the run, it can be over by half time.
avatar

Posted by themyth
4 years ago

Both teams light it up big time - end to end football at it;s best! Pats win easy, 49 - 31 The Myth
avatar

Posted by gambaholik
4 years ago

Saints streak ends tonight.Pats +120!!
avatar

Posted by Cashmoney777
4 years ago

Saints 39 Pats 38 Over 57 hoodie doesn't trust his D why should we
avatar

Posted by like2betmore
4 years ago

Good luck whoever plays the under their in a dome.
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
4 years ago

HERES THE PICKS!!!!!!!!!!! SAINTS___42 PATRIOTS__24 SAINTS + OVER 56.5 @ $1,000.00 = $2,500.00 PAYOUT...........PERIOD!!!!
avatar

Posted by NickCapone
4 years ago

Taking Pats all the way. Should i go with +105 money or +1.5 line??????
avatar

Posted by jmw59
4 years ago

Who Dat?
avatar

Posted by drewpy24
4 years ago

cant go under monday night four times in a row can it? has it ever
avatar

Posted by StevenGA1011
4 years ago

NO -1 & UNDER 56.5
avatar

Posted by FATSTAX
4 years ago

Over!!!!!
avatar

Posted by anth611
4 years ago

saints in a win and cover on a john carney 44 yrd field goal but the game goes under ........remember this let me know people 27 24 saints
avatar

Posted by Cooler999
4 years ago

I with the under also. Probably take the over 1st half, then watch it simmer down on the second half. Vegas is built on perception, and most people have this pegged for the over. Should be a fantastic game, can't wait.
avatar

Posted by bvpicks
4 years ago

Not sure about this one, but the Patriots are not the same team as years gone by. New Orleans is better offensively but I like the Pats DEF. I'll take UNDER 56.5.
avatar

Posted by jeffjames
4 years ago

Flip a coin this will be a chess game taking the under
avatar

Posted by IWINN
4 years ago

SORRY ABOUT THE GRAMMER ...ALOT OF THOUGHTS
avatar

Posted by IWINN
4 years ago

BIG SAINTS FAN HERE AND I HAVE WATCHED EVERY GAME THIS SEASON 2 OR 3 TIMES DEPENDS ON HOW MANT TIMES NFL NETWORK SHOWS IT .....JUST SOME INSIDE THOUGHTS..... THE REASON I THINK THE SAINTS WILL WIN IS BECAUSE SAINTS RUNNING BACK PICK UP THE BLITZ REALLY WELL. I ALSO THINK BOTH T.E. OPTIONS WILL HAVE A FIELD DAY WHEN PATS STAY IN A 3-4 DEF. BREES DOES SOME THROW INTS BUT ILL TAKE HIS TD/INT RATIO ANYDAY.... BOTH SHARPER AND HARPER ARE PLAYING SOME GREAT BALL AND A LOT OF THE INTS OUR SAINTS HAVE HAD IS BECAUSE OF TIP BALLS....WITH ELLIS COMING BACK TONIGHT MEANS WE WILL HAVE 6 FRESH"ER" DL TO ATTACK TOMMY BOY....... IF I MADE A PLAY I WOULD SAY UNDER 24 -17
avatar

Posted by HumbleSeaGoat
4 years ago

Two nuggets of information worth considering: 1.) The Patriots are now the #1 pass defense in the league, usurping Washington's title after this Sunday. 2.) The Pats destroyed Gregg Williams's defense in 2007 when he was with Washington (his fourth year as a defensive coordinator then). It was one of New England's most lopsided victories that year, and Williams had no answer for it.
avatar

Posted by 3jjjkids
4 years ago

this game should be a good game the saints have a good season so far their defense will not be able to stop brady n bunch pats win 35-21
         1   2    next page    last page
You are currently not logged in.
Login | Signup | Help
You must be logged in to post a comment.

Top Response

Posted by like2betmore
4 years ago

"Good luck whoever plays the under their in a dome."