What can the Browns do for you? Try fattening your bankroll.
Seriously.
The team is 1-9 SU, 4-6 ATS and 4-6 over/under this fall. But don’t let those numbers fool you. Cleveland is a surprising 4-0 over/under when it scores at least 14 points this year. Books have kept Browns games strapped with low totals all season due to the team’s ineptitude on offense (the guys in Revenge of the Nerds scored more). However, the team’s offense appears ready to turn the corner.
And that’s the biggest variable for the Browns – how many points will they score? The team’s defense is consistently mediocre, giving up more than 26 points per game and often getting embarrassed in the process. But when the offense manages to contribute several scores, this team has no trouble busting the number.
Brady Quinn finally got the confidence boost he needed against the Lions last week, completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 304 yards with four touchdowns against no interceptions. The former Notre Dame star entered the game with just three touchdown passes in his career.
More importantly, the team appears to finally have its rushing game gaining steam. The offensive line allowed only one sack and paved the way for 131 rush yards on 40 carries.
And the past several seasons, 14 points has been the magic number for the Browns offense. Last year, the team posted a 4-2 over/under record when scoring a minimum of two touchdowns. Two seasons ago when the team was scoring at will with Derek Anderson under center, it went 8-5-1 over/under when scoring 14 points or more.
Plus, the team gets to play the Bengals this week. The past seven times Cleveland has scored at least 14 points against their instate rivals, the over has hit four times. In the team’s most recent meeting, the Browns scored 20 points and came up just short in overtime, losing, 23-20. The total? You guessed it, a low 37.5 points.
If you still think I’m nuttier than a live performance by Adam Lambert, I have two points for you:
1. The Bengals allowed 20 points last week to Oakland.
2. Bruce Gradkowski was Oakland’s quarterback.
I rest my case.
Be smart, play the over and see what the Browns can do for you.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-14, 39)
I think I’ve already beaten this point into the ground more than Sarah Palin destroyed the word “maverick,” but just remember: the Browns don’t need to win. They don’t need to be competitive. They just need to score 14 points to put themselves in fantastic position to beat the total.
If Bruce Gradkowski can move the ball against the Bengals, why can’t Brady Quinn?
Confidence is one of the most important things in the NFL and the Browns should be playing with plenty of it on offense right now. Add in one of the worst defenses in the league, and that simple math adds up to an over.
Pick: Over
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3.5, 48)
This game should be a shootout. It should feature Houston quarterback Matt Schaub throwing jump balls to Andre Johnson and Colts signal caller Peyton Manning throwing lasers to Reggie Wayne in stride down the seam.
But it won’t.
The first meeting between the teams was a 20-17 snoozer that snapped a streak of eight straight meetings that went over the total. And I see no reason why this one should be any different.
The Texans need to keep the Colts off the field and the Colts want to attack the soft middle and porous run defense of the Texans. Both combine to make a game featuring lots of ball control, little risk-taking and plenty of punts.
These teams also have a combined record of 7-13 versus the total this year.
Pick: Under
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-11, 47)
Brett Favre can’t wait to light up the Chicago Bears.
Favre is a notorious Bears killer and should have no problem against a Chicago defense that is yielding nearly 23 points per game. And even without a stud quarterback, the Vikings have had little trouble putting points up against the usually stingy Bears.
Four of the team’s past five meetings have gone over the total, including a 5-1-1 mark in the team’s past seven meetings overall.
And over players have to love Jay Cutler – he either turns the ball over, giving the opposing team great field position, or throws tight spirals all over the field and picks apart opponent’s best coverages.
Pick: Over
Last week: 1-2
Overall: 13-20