NFL Underdogs: Week 12 pointspread predictions

By ASHTON GREWAL | November 27, 2009 | 28 comments
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Thanksgiving is a wonderful time. As a Canadian, I celebrate the holiday a month earlier but I really wish we were as passionate about the occasion as our friends south of the border.

Americans do it the right way: a four-day weekend with non-stop football on the tube.

Taking a moment to consider what you’re most thankful for is a nice change of pace from our regular longings of things we don’t have. That gives us perspective.

Around this point in the season NFL teams have a good outlook of their season. After 10 games, clubs can’t argue with the results. As former Cardinals coach Dennis Green famously said, “They are who we thought they were!”

Half of the clubs in the league know they won’t be playing in the postseason this winter. Some will accept that and relish in the spoiler role while others will be too depressed to put up a fight over the final leg of the regular season.

Identifying which teams fall under which category should help us collect some cash for Christmas presents. I don’t know about you guys, but money is a little tight around the Grewal residence with a baby expected to arrive in January.

If I don’t increase my bankroll, I’ll be forced to send out cards with donations made out to the Human Fund for Xmas gifts – a la George Costanza.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) at San Diego Chargers

I really like the direction the Chiefs are heading in. I held back laughs a couple weeks ago when NFL analysts were suggesting that head coach Todd Haley’s job was in danger if Kansas City didn’t start winning a few games.

This club improves each time I see them play, something that has to be credited to the sideline boss. KC has won two straight – including last week’s shocker over the Steelers – and has covered in five of its last six overall.

“Let’s play our best football of the year right now in these last two months of the season, and let’s build some momentum and get better as a team,” QB Matt Cassel told the Kansas City Star.

That’s the right type of perspective.

Pick: Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Tennessee Titans 

Kurt Warner’s case for league MVP improved dramatically with Matt Leinart’s relief appearance last weekend against the St. Louis Rams. The Cards were up 21-3 and were in complete control until Warner got his bell rung.

Leinart wasn’t awful, but Arizona’s offense just isn’t the same without No. 13. Thankfully for Zona backers, Warner will be back under center this week at Tennessee.

In case you hadn’t noticed, the Cards are playing their best football since last year’s playoffs. They’re 6-1 over the last seven games (5-2 ATS) and are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road this season.

Tennessee’s Cortland Finnegan is a world-class cornerback but he can’t defend Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald at the same time.

Pick: Arizona

I really want to take the Pats and Texans this week but my scaredy-cat tendencies are getting the best of me. Besides, I’ve got a record to protect. In case you hadn’t noticed, I’m 10-1 with my picks over the last four weeks.

Be thankful I’m not giving you too much of a good thing.

Last week: 3-0

Season record: 20-12

28 comments
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Bslim415
Bslim415 says:
11/28/09 12:53AM

Pats Moneyline

Azza_Jones
Azza_Jones says:
11/28/09 09:34AM

Im really liking Arizona to be the Titans outright!

bienngo
bienngo says:
11/28/09 09:54AM

Titan is hottest team now .they will win all the games to the end of the season.Arizona quaterback is bang up and on another road games again this week.Titan will beat them by double digit.

daveshingle
daveshingle says:
11/28/09 11:32AM

I like both the picks in this article. I am on them both!

giannidis
giannidis says:
11/28/09 12:21PM

i think the chiefs are a fish bet...it seems to big a spread for a team that has played in close games all year like the chiefs have...i have a feeling the chargers blow them out

Michfan15
Michfan15 says:
11/28/09 02:45PM

Cards are nice...but Chiefs beat an overrated Steelers team last week....However well the Chiefs are playing now, the Chargers are playing great also. At home Chargers always blow teams out, I think Chargers will win easily in blowout fashion...38-10

lvd420
lvd420 says:
11/28/09 03:11PM

OFF the topic......How are the Steelers OVERRATTED?? They Dominated a 7-3 Chargers team and handed Minnesota their only loss of the season, and are Undefeated if Troy Polamalu plays!!! All their losses have been close games and when u don't have the best Defensive player in the league playing, it's gonna affect the outcome. If they make the Playoffs, NOBODY will want to play them

like2betmore
like2betmore says:
11/28/09 04:27PM

Lol nice reply Ivd420 was thinking the same thing.

madh4ttr
madh4ttr says:
11/28/09 05:35PM

yea, the Steelers are great. How many games have they lost now, a slighty above average team. They will get their butts whipped at Baltimore. But, go ahead, make another excuse of why they are gonna lose, because no Ben. That IS football.

dude1618
dude1618 says:
11/28/09 06:28PM

Hooray for French-Canadians!

chau1027
chau1027 says:
11/28/09 07:25PM

Hi brothers this is time for me to challenge the underdog pick I like the Carolina this week reason they been cover against the Jet most of the time also the Jet is going to be a DC10.fall down and down they are no hope for the payoff.Carolina is like a dinner on the table gl.

wize1
wize1 says:
11/28/09 11:57PM

Several reasons why I think Arizona will win. Tenesse is coming off of a short week, and I really don't give a krap if people say that doesn't make a difference because it does. Second Arizona has been great on the road all year. Third, Arizona can look forward to being in the playoffs, while Tenesse has been outta that race for a long time. Beating the Jags, San fran, and houston really doesn't impress me at all. Ofcourse Tenesse is playing more inspired, vince young is back and they got some wins finally. Odds makers should not have made Arizona the underdog, logically it doesn't make sense.

wize1
wize1 says:
11/29/09 12:01AM

Both undefeated teams will stay undefeated this sunday. Offensively I just don't think teams can keep up with Indi, or New orleans. Playing good defense will not cut it, both of these teams will find a way to pick u apart.

hawaiidianna
hawaiidianna says:
11/29/09 02:30AM

like both plays as well at the ML on Pats

Cashmoney777
Cashmoney777 says:
11/29/09 03:07AM

congrats on going 10-1 nice run but don't like either of your picks. Kurt Warner is still probably out of it Titans -2 Texans are better dog choice Saints are going to win on Monday night not Sunday wize1

StevenGA1011
StevenGA1011 says:
11/29/09 05:04AM

MIA -3.5

STL +4

MIN -10.5

alboxer
alboxer says:
11/29/09 09:18AM

Kurt Warner for league MVP......GO Cardinals GO......

michaelpaul1
michaelpaul1 says:
11/29/09 09:48AM

10-3

icover4u
icover4u says:
11/29/09 09:54AM

Zona

Bears

Over on carolina 41.5

Lets get this dough....OUT

BoutTime
BoutTime says:
11/29/09 11:10AM

Here are some interesting trends regarding the Tenn/ARZ game for those of you thinking of playing it. The last sentence is really interesting to me.......

Since 1985, home favorites riding a four-game winning streak off a road underdog victory are 21-9 SU and 18-10-2 ATS (64%), as the Titans fall into this situation. Also, Tennessee is 16-2 ATS the last 18 off a SU win against a non-division opponent coming off an ATS loss.

CalledK3
CalledK3 says:
11/29/09 11:31AM

Although I follow the Chiefs - I disagree with this week as the week to get on their bandwagon.....

The Chiefs are a young team coming off back to back draining efforts and Wins. These were wins 5 and 6 of their last 36 games - thus they had a reason to sit fat and happy over Thanksgiving dinner .... now KC has to climb on a plane for a one game roadtrip prior to three winnable home games - and travel to meet a team playing superior football (their best football since thier 2007 playoff run) - one that has matchup advantages everywhere and will be motivated to match rival Denver's win Thursday night in the battle for divisional title.

Last time the Chiefs played the Chargers, the game was over at halftime in KC.

There will be better times to play on the improvement trends of the Chiefs. Had these two teams played last week the line would have been 18 or 19 points.

The best hope for a Chiefs cover would be a backdoor one as SD will be up 20 points plus at some point in this game.

heinmanIam
heinmanIam says:
11/29/09 11:38AM

Ashton.......good article and like your piks......Chiefs getting 14 after beating Steelers? Are the books looking to give money away? Not sure about Cards game........Vince Young seemed to light a fire in this teams a.s. Warner banged up and Leinhart unimpressive.......you need a QB to get the ball properly to Boldin and Fitz. and Titans D has picked their game.

Chiefs +14

Under Cards/Tits

Being a huge Jets fan I hate to say this but.....

Carolina +3.5..........Sanchez is struggling and Cats -D......if they studied film.....should have a field day

BOLA

robertofox
robertofox says:
11/29/09 01:47PM

keep hating on the titans.

tennessee -2 all day

doobiebrother
doobiebrother says:
11/29/09 01:58PM

Much needed 5-0 sweep on Saturday, hope to continue today. All trend ATS unless otherwise noted.

3* Titans (-2) over Cardinals – This is a game of misleading numbers as Arizona’s #8 rush “D” appears to be a good matchup vs. Tennessee’s #1 running game, as does Cards #4 pass offense vs. Titans’ #31 pass “D”. Further investigation reveals that Arizona has played teams ranked #24, #28, #30, #31, and #32 (twice) in rushing. In the other 4 games Cards have allowed 5.5 YPR and in their only game vs. a top 5 rushing attack were gashed for 265 yards in a 34-21 home loss to Carolina. Chris Brown is a freak and should go nuts here after trouncing a Houston run “D” that had allowed 61 YPG on 3.2 YPR in their previous 6 games. Titans’ pass “D” numbers bloated due to multiple early season injuries in the (now healthy) secondary, and though still not one of the NFL’s best, certainly better than #31. They just beat Houston’s #3 pass offense last week on the road. This is biggest schedule gap on today’s card (Titans #2, Cards #25). Titans 32-14 vs. NFC (7-1 L8) and 17-4 HF 3<.

2* Bengals (-12.5) over Browns – Hard to believe so many are buying into Brady Quinn’s performance vs. perennially hapless Lions pass “D”. Cleveland 1-8 as dog 9> scoring a grand total of 45 points. Bengals have solid edges across the board and huge mismatch with their DBs over Cleveland WRs. Cincy bounces back big after embarrassing loss at Oakland.

2* Dolphins (-3.5) over Bills – Buffalo 1-8 SU & ATS at home and their staggering injury list continues to grow. Their #31 rush “D” doesn’t match up well vs. Miami’s running game and there is a big schedule gap here (Dolphins #1, Bills # 21). Miami 5-5 but could just as easily be 7-3 with wins over Colts and Saints as they had both on the ropes before losing. Dolphins 8-1 inside the division.

StevenGA1011
StevenGA1011 says:
11/29/09 02:15PM

PIT +9

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