By Richard Gardner | Bodog Sportsbook Manager
When looking back at Week 11 of the NFL, one football game in particular stood out for us here at Bodog’s online sportsbook, and that was Indianapolis at Baltimore. That had the most fluctuation of any game line and turned out to be the biggest decision for us, which is a fairly unusual double.
The Colts opened at opened at -1, then went to -1.5, then -2, then -2.5, back to -2 and finally closed at -2.5. Usually with lines around these types of numbers the moves are not as important as was the case with the Colts-Ravens number because it stayed on one side of three (i.e. not jumping over and them coming back down). When you think of close games in the NFL, you probably expect it to be a field goal difference. But more often than not a “close” NFL game ends in a 1-point victory. Of course Indy won by two on the road, so all those bettors who got their money down early were able to cash in. That result alone would have been the biggest decision for the house this week, but because most of the action was right on 2 it was a push. A lot of people did wait until near kickoff to bet, so we ended up taking more money at -2.5 than we took at -1 and -1.5 – thus the game ended up being a small win for the book.
Meanwhile, the players were the big winners in the two other biggest results handle wise: Eagles-Bears on Sunday night and Jets-Patriots. While we’ve been very happy with the amount people are jumping on the favorites in recent weeks (the dogs have been dominating), Philly and New England both covered as the favorite. The Eagles were bet from -3 to -3.5, and that half point turned crucial.
The book came out as the winner especially with three dogs: the Rams covering +9 at home against Arizona (that’s three weeks in a row the Rams have been good to us), the Chiefs winning straight up getting 11 at home against Pittsburgh and the Browns +3.5 at Detroit. I’ve said it once and will say it again: We love the underdogs and the public as a whole simply doesn’t.
Now looking ahead to Week 12 in NFL betting lines, we have the Thanksgiving Day tripleheader circled on our calendars as well as the Monday nighter between the Patriots and the unbeaten Saints. Thanksgiving is annually one of our biggest days of the year. We usually get about double the handle of a typical Sunday afternoon game. We do forecast the Giants-Broncos Turkey Day finale to bring in the best handle of the three games. That’s almost always the case for night games anyways, but this week we expect very big numbers on the Giants as the Broncos bandwagon seems to be emptying.
As for Pats-Saints, it’s just the fifth time in the history of “Monday Night Football” that there’s been a 10-0 (or better team) in action. The Saints join the 2007 Patriots, 2005 Colts, 1985 Bears and 1972 Dolphins in that group. Only one of the previous four lost the Monday nighter: those Super Bowl Shuffle Bears. Interestingly, only one game saw a single-digit difference in the final score, with the Patriots beating the Ravens 27-24. The early betting trends seem to show the public will have a fairly significant lean to New England in New Orleans. The Pats also got the public lean when they played at unbeaten Indy a few weeks ago.