New York Giants at Denver Broncos (+7, 42)
Bye week blues and bye week bliss
First-year head coach Josh McDaniels and the Denver Broncos surprised everyone with a 6-0 start, with wins over top teams such as the Cowboys and Patriots.
The Broncos haven't won since. Denver is 0-4 (straight up and against the spread) and is losing by an average of 22.5 points per outing over the skid.
The 2009 New York Giants campaign is almost a near carbon copy of Denver's year, starting with a 5-0 record, which was then followed by a similar four-game losing slide.
The Giants bounced back with a 34-31 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons after their bye week, in which head coach Tom Coughlin ordered his players to use the week off as a "vacation". But they blew a 31-17 lead and benefited large by winning the OT coin toss.
One key problem during their slide has been the amount of points allowed. The Giants gave up only 14.2 points per game in their first five games, but have given up 32.8 points a game since then.
Not the 2007 Patriots
If the Broncos are to keep the game close they are going to have to do something about their recent offensive woes.
Last week's three-point performance was highlighted by a shoving match between Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno, after the rookie running back fumbled the ball in the end zone.
While the shoving may have been unnecessary, Marshall's frustration is fully warranted as the Broncos were 0-for-4 in the red zone, with the results being two fumbles, a field goal and a turnover on downs
Another problem to contend with is a less-than 100 percent Kyle Orton, who is expected to start but is dealing with an ankle injury.
Even with Orton at the helm, the offense has been anemic, scoring just 17 points per game this season and only 7.75 ppg in their last four games. The 2009 Broncos in no way resemble the team that McDaniels called plays for in 2007.
Which Eli will show up?
The Giants are one of the better offensive teams ranking fourth and averaging 385.5 yards per game. At times though they have been inconsistent and that all stems from their quarterback.
In the losses to the Saints, Cardinals and Eagles, Eli Manning threw a total of six interceptions, while only tossing three TDs. Every now and then he'll pull off an impressive performance like last week where he went 25-for-39 on 384 yards and three TDs.
Manning will have to contend with a Broncos secondary led by Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins. The Broncos have been outstanding against the pass, giving up only 182.5 yards per game - the third-best in the NFL.
The line
The Giants have produced a 4-5-1 ATS record this year with the losses coming in the last five games. They were set as favorites in four of those five games.
The total for the game has remained steady at 42 for most of the week.
The Giants are scoring 26.6 points per game and are giving up 23.5 ppg. They are a strong over team this year going 6-3-1 and this will be their eighth time dealing with a total higher than 40.
The Broncos have been one of the best under bets this year, going 2-8 on totals. This can be attributed to their offensive production which is only scoring 17 points per game.
Weather
Forecast predicts a high of 59 and low of 40 during gametime with a 10 percent chance of precipitation. Light southwest winds (sideline to sideline) are expected.
As always altitude will be a factor in Denver and Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes (who use to play for Broncos rival Kansas City) claims that it helps kickers and punters, "It adds probably five to eight yards."
Also keep in mind on how altitude will impact fatigue as the Giants are coming off four days rest (from an overtime game) and are traveling across two time zones for this must win Turkey Day tilt.