Chan’s the man: Lines that make you go hmmm….
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DAVID CHAN - My handicapping process delivers profits season after season
November 23, 2009
1 comment
Each week, the Covers.com newsroom looks at the big board and points out a line or two that seem kind of fishy. We decided to seek some professional help. Covers Expert David Chan helps us sort through the funky pointspreads.
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Covers.com staff: We know the Jags aren’t that great, but is home field really the only thing separating these two teams?
Chan: That number should be more like 6 but I can see why it’s sitting at 3.
The 49ers have had trouble against the better running backs that they’ve faced. Michael Turner and Chris Johnson both enjoyed big days at Candlestick Park.
The Jags have Maurice Jones-Drew, but they are something of a fraudulent 6-4 squad.
There are some 3.5’s cropping up and if it gets there at most shops there shouldn’t be much holding the books from moving up to 4.
Don’t forget the 49ers have only beaten two teams by more than 4 points this year and their wide receivers don’t scare anybody.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos (-12)
Covers.com staff: BSU is obviously a great football team, but isn’t this line a little bit of a slight to an 8-3 Nevada team?
Chan: Looks about right to me.
Nevada has won eight in a row but both these teams have played very weak schedules.
Nevada, for its part, started the season by getting shut out 35-0 at Notre Dame and following it up with double-digit losses at Colorado State and at home to Missouri.
The Wolf Pack have looked good in conference but outside these two teams and Fresno State, there’s nobody even within shouting distance of the top-50.
Boise State’s schedule is also largely garbage, but instead of getting shut out by Notre Dame to start the season, Boise State beat Oregon 19-8. That counts for a lot in my books and makes them double-digit favorites here.
They’ll want to win by a ton. Boise State continues to chase an at-large BCS bid. Margin of victory does not impress computers, but could impress voters and ultimately the selection committee.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Cincinnati Bearcats (-18)
Covers.com staff: Illinois isn’t good, but this seems like a lot of points for the Bearcats to be giving in a game that’s pretty much meaningless for them.
Chan: This game may be “meaningless” to Cincinnati with the Pitt game coming up but if Texas somehow lost to A&M or Nebraska, Cincinnati might have a shot at the National Champion Game. It’s a long shot, but it’s there.
In the mean time, Cincinnati will want to come out for three hard quarters here to make sure everything’s working properly for the following week.
Illinois is finishing up another forgettable season and only have wins over Minnesota, Michigan and Illinois State. The two times they’ve stepped up in class, they’ve been hammered (Ohio State 30-0 away; Penn State 35-17). If the Bearcats are the equal of those better clubs, and I don’t think they’re far off, this sets up to be another beating.