NFL Week 11's biggest betting mismatches

By DAVID JONES | November 21, 2009 | 5 comments
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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5, 42.5)

Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Buffalo's rush defense

Jones-Drew enters this matchup as the fifth-leading rusher in the NFL. He has averaged 133 yards over his last four games with seven touchdown runs for the Jaguars.

While Buffalo defensive coordinator Perry Fewell is now the interim head coach after the firing of Dick Jauron, he is working with a banged-up stop unit that is last in the NFL in rushing defense. No less than six key defenders, including DT Marcus Stroud and S Donte Whitner, could miss the game due to injuries.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 42)

Green Bay's third-down units vs. San Francisco's third-down units

The Packers are ninth in the NFL in offensive third-down conversion percentage while ranking second in the league in third-down conversion percentage on defense. Green Bay is 4-1 SU and ATS against losing foes this season with the help of its ability to control third-downs against weaker foes.

The 4-5 49ers are in the bottom eight in the league in third-down conversion percentage on both sides of the ball this season. While QB Alex Smith has shown some improvement in 2009, he is still a work in progress at this point in his development. With CB Nate Clements out and LB Takeo Spikes doubtful for Sunday's contest due to injuries, the defense won't be at full strength against the Packers.    

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (+1.5, 44.5)

Baltimore's rush defense vs. Indianapolis rush offense

The Ravens are fifth in the NFL in rushing defense. Veteran linebacker Ray Lewis still has something left in the tank. He is fifth in the league in solo tackles with 58.

Indianapolis is 29th in the league in rushing offense. Top draft choice Donald Brown has been limited to only 50 carries due to injuries while starter Joseph Addai is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry for the second straight year.       

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5, 45)

New England's pass defense vs. Mark Sanchez

Despite last week's fourth quarter collapse at Indianapolis, the Patriots are seventh in the NFL in passing defense. The unit has been eagerly awaiting another chance to face Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets since a 16-9 defeat at Giants Stadium in Week 2.

The rookie signal-caller is 26th in the league in quarterback rating. He completed a season-high 63.6 percent of his 22 passes in the first meeting with the Pats without an interception. However, Sanchez has been limited to four touchdown passes with ten interceptions during New York's current 1-5 slide.  

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4.5, 48)

Houston's pass offense vs. Tennessee's pass defense

The Texans are third in the NFL in passing offense. In a 34-31 win at Nashville in Week 2, quarterback Matt Schaub (357 yards, four TD passes) and wideout Andre Johnson (10 receptions, 149 yards) had a field day against the Titans secondary.

Tennessee has come to life with three straight wins but the club is still vulnerable through the air with the next to last passing defense in the NFL. With the Texans coming off of a bye to face the team formerly know as the Houston Oilers on a Monday night at home, there is little doubt that the Titans will get Houston's best shot in this AFC South battle.

5 comments
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swens30
swens30 says:
11/22/09 12:54AM

Like the match ups this week. Did a nice 3 team teaser.... Took Pitt, Minnesota and New England 3 Units. This should be a lock i think

nkmi1984
nkmi1984 says:
11/22/09 03:52AM

Never say LOCK lol. Looks good swens. I have MINN, NE,AND indy. I had Pitt in there but shuffled them out. I think Indy will come down to a FG

GmanIV
GmanIV says:
11/22/09 01:26PM

Philly and Detroit Det are a lock.

Str8 up pix...Pitt, Az and Green Bay

Thisisitbaby
Thisisitbaby says:
11/22/09 01:30PM

took Tampa Bay +12 for $400......Tampa has been looking better since the change at quarterback and their at home......HMMMM....maybe an outright upset win for Tampa.

swens30
swens30 says:
11/22/09 06:02PM

I cant believe that Pitt lost, How do you lose to a Shitty squad like KC. Well you can definately count on Ptt not repeating this year

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