NFL Underdogs: Week 11 pointspread predictions

By ASHTON GREWAL | November 21, 2009 | 20 comments
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I’m a big fan of ESPN’s Monday Night Football commercials. Those mad men need a raise. They have the ability to convince me that even a Ravens-Browns game is worth watching.

Did you ever see the one where the guy is day dreaming about being Bill Belichick on the sidelines?

“What? I cut the sleeves off because it looks awesome. Get your head in the game!”

Classic.

I wonder if Belichick would have liked to switch places with that guy at the toy plane kiosk following Sunday night’s loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

Billy B wasn’t the only coach facing scrutiny this week. Eric Mangini is recruiting NBA players, Rex Ryan can’t stop crying and Lovie Smith won’t let his players talk to Bob Costas.

The Buffalo Bills gave Dick Jauron a pink slip while the Minnesota Vikings handed Brad Childress a three-year extension. Who would have thought that would happen after Week 7 last season when the Bills were 5-1 and the Vikes were 3-4?

“Coaching is critical in handicapping football,” says Covers Expert Marc Lawrence. “Because teams take on the coaches’ personalities, different teams develop different demeanors. It’s important to learn the coach and his tendencies.”

Handicapping colleague and fellow Covers Expert Ben Burns also likes to take notice of these coaching trends.

“I’d rather have an under ticket with Marty Schottenheimer coaching than one with Mike Martz calling the plays.”

Both cappers acknowledged the importance of how good coaching can affect how they place their wagers. But I’m staring at the board and the plays I like involve backing a couple less accomplished coaches.

Maybe this 7-1 hot streak that I’ve been over the last three weeks might come to a grinding halt Sunday. You’ve all been warned.

Buffalo Bills (+9) at Jacksonville Jaguars  

I loved Bills interim coach Perry Fewell’s comments following his promotion from defensive coordinator. He was asked what his philosophy would be for his team the rest of the season.

“Play like hell and win,” he answered.

The Bills will respect that type of simple approach. Fewell is doing a fantastic job with an injury-depleted defense and I think he’ll rely on the run game a bit more.

Ryan Fitzpatrick under center scares me a bit, but it’s not like Trent Edwards was setting the world on fire either. 
  
Fitzpatrick should have some time to throw, playing against the Jags who have the fewest sacks this season (8).

Pick: Buffalo

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers
 
Fading the Packers hurt my bankroll last weekend. I just didn’t see that annihilation of the Cowboys coming. One week the Pack are losing to the Bucs and defensive players are questioning D-coordinator Dom Capers’ system, the next week they’re shutting out Dallas for three quarters.

A few talking heads in Bristol observed that the Niners don’t trust Alex Smith. The signal caller wasn’t given a chance to make any plays against the Bears. Maybe Mike Singletary got a little gun shy while watching Chicago QB Jay Cutler throw the game away.

This smells like a defensive slugfest that’ll be decided by a late field goal.

Pick: San Fran

Tennessee Titans (+4.5) at Houston Texans

The Titans have 62 pass attempts over their last three games. That’s good news if you’re a Tennessee fan.

Jeff Fisher’s club got away from its identity because of a leaky secondary. The Titans continually fell behind big, which meant they had to rely on Kerry Collins’ arm way too much.

The secondary is healthy and contributing again.

Opposing defenses have to have a linebacker spying Vince Young on every snap because of the former Longhorn’s ability to make plays with his legs.

I think this will be a game where Houston QB Matt Schaub will really miss Pro Bowl TE Owen Daniels.

Pick: Titans

Last week: 2-0

Season record: 17-12

20 comments
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ozzwald
ozzwald says:
11/21/09 05:36PM

good luck, like the Titans

Shaft-231
Shaft-231 says:
11/21/09 06:09PM

Titans straight up, +190

ronnied504
ronnied504 says:
11/21/09 07:54PM

na you got it buddy

chau1027
chau1027 says:
11/21/09 08:00PM

here we go again I like to challange the underdog pick my pick last week was 3-1 this week I like the atlanta reason they are 4-0 at giant home also the other one is cleveland reason they give detriot hard time.also Detroit going to win at thanksgiving date.good luck.

LakeFavorite
LakeFavorite says:
11/21/09 10:05PM

Um......Chau, you have two dudes kissing eachother on a gambling web site.

charliemanuel
charliemanuel says:
11/22/09 12:23AM

That's Chau and Eric Mangini.

ace7
ace7 says:
11/22/09 02:34AM

That's disgusting! He should be banished from this site. Chau, you suck.

xbixbyx
xbixbyx says:
11/22/09 04:07AM

i like those picks. what about atlanta though?

ALONZOJA
ALONZOJA says:
11/22/09 08:02AM

Am i crazy for thinking the Ravens are a huge play today....opened at Indy-1, have seen as high as -3 now....im thinking straight up win for Ray and the boys!!

nieldellacroce
nieldellacroce says:
11/22/09 08:25AM

yo chau i dont know if your guy or what. but i am sick and tired of how homsexuals force there rights on society. they do it on t.v they do it in the public. and in politics. i have nothing againts there choice of liveing, but that does not make me want to see it everytime i turn my head. have some respect for the majority of us on here who are by the most part strait and female loveing men. no disrespect intended.

charlielo55
charlielo55 says:
11/22/09 10:35AM

Hey neildellacroce, as a rule of thumb, when you put "ing" at the end of a verb, you usually drop the "e"....so it'd be living not liveing, and loving, not loveing.....lol

eye2
eye2 says:
11/22/09 10:58AM

Falcons are a no brainer against the Giants. I always take Matt Ryan with points.

mrusso
mrusso says:
11/22/09 11:11AM

Chau, I questioned you about your other picture, you claimed it was a father and son kissing. I know you were lying, especially after seeing your new avatar. If your going to use a gambling website as your forum for your sexual preferences (and you shouldn't), don't lie about it. I wouldn't walk into a happy bar and hang up posters of beautiful women, which quite frankly most of these guys would much prefer to see, myself included, And those two "boys" in your new avater look awfully young to me, something else most of us and the "law" would have a problem with. Exactly how old are they Chau? Perhaps some law enforcement viewers might find some interest in your pics and might even want to talk to you about it.

Sorry Ashton, when something doesn't look right , I asy something. As for your pix',

great job last week, great call on the Bengals. Went 3-1 myself and like SF, OAK, BAL, and TENN Monday night this week. The tide has finally turned for dog players! And I know you like to play those 2 team teasers, me too, this week, Saints and Pats, 6 pt tease. Expecting a solid day with these plays today, although it is the NFL, and we all know what that means...

Good Luck!

SuckerBet77
SuckerBet77 says:
11/22/09 12:03PM

The cupboard is bare for the falcons this week and traveling to NY may be too much. Turner is out, White is banged up, and the defense has been exposed.

nieldellacroce
nieldellacroce says:
11/22/09 12:08PM

say charlielo i dont need a grammar lesson from know one here on covers. if you understood what i ment then that should be enough. thats another thing about some of you on here. why in the fu.k would i be sitting on a dam sports site checking grammar and spelling. wow!!! get a fuc.ing life buddy.

brijon24
brijon24 says:
11/22/09 12:15PM

Agree with the Bills pick 100%

WinsNow999
WinsNow999 says:
11/22/09 01:33PM

ONLY THE LINES SET THEM APART THIS WEEK in NFL; EACH MATCH-UPS are very closed.

LOVE 49ers UPSET here! Agree 100%

StevenGA1011
StevenGA1011 says:
11/22/09 02:01PM

ATL +7

SD -6.5

CIN -9.5

chau1027
chau1027 says:
11/22/09 03:59PM

dont worry about my picture just worry about my pick if you guys been follow my pick you should be ahead of the bookmakers that is the bottom line ok tonight I will take the jets at NE sounds very scare my reason for the pick is jet always against NE at home very hard time for them also another pick is tennese.gl.

chau1027
chau1027 says:
11/22/09 06:06PM

my 2 underdog won again. I am up this week brother.what I told you guys if you been follow my underdog you can go on vaction now 2-0 this week,hahahah.

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