NFL prop shop: L.T. back to his old self
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SEAN MURPHY - My goals are simple: win and make consistent profit.
November 20, 2009
1 comment
I’m heating up at the right time, delivering back-to-back 3-1 weeks in the Prop Shop.
After focusing solely on the epic Pats-Colts battle last week, it’s back to business with four picks to click across Sunday’s board.
Most rushing yards
LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego Chargers) vs. Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos)
After being held down for the first eight games this season, LaDanian Tomlinson looked like the L.T. of old, running for 96 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries last Sunday.
Darren Sproles hasn’t made much of an impact on the ground this season. Norv Turner has been using him more effectively in the passing game. That opens up additional carries for Tomlinson.
Note that the Broncos defense has really struggled against the run over the last few weeks, allowing 157.3 rush yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush. Those numbers are significantly higher than their season averages.
Knowshon Moreno ran for 98 yards last week, but had been held to just 86 combined rush yards over his previous three games. He earned a lot more carries in Weeks 3 to 6 than he’s getting now.
Take: Tomlinson
Most passing yards
Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) vs. Eli Manning (New York Giants)
Matt Ryan has seen a major drop off in production since his rookie season. In 2008, Ryan threw for an average of 7.9 yards per pass play. This year, that number has dropped to 6.7.
Ryan started the season by throwing seven touchdowns and just two interceptions through his first four games. Since that time, he has thrown another seven touchdowns, but has also been picked off 10 times.
Eli Manning and the Giants offense have an added advantage with an extra week to prepare for the Falcons defense. Manning’s yards per pass rose to 7.5 from 6.8 a year ago. I look for a big bounce-back game for him against a banged-up Falcons secondary.
Atlanta has given up over 220 pass yards per game on 7.9 yards per pass play over its last three games. It’s hard to envision any sort of turnaround against what should be a focused Eli Manning.
Take: Manning
Most pass receptions
Santana Moss (Washington Redskins) vs. Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys)
Miles Austin isn’t playing nearly as prominent a role in the Cowboys offense as he did earlier this season.
Since hauling in 21 passes from Weeks 5 through 8, Austin has made only five in the last two games. Maybe that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Over his first four games this season, Austin recorded only five catches. In the first two years of his career he had only 18.
Ever since a big second half in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, the Redskins pass offense has found some rhythm. The production hasn’t come from Santana Moss, but I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets involved.
Last year, Moss had his best game in Dallas, hauling in eight catches for 145 yards. While that type of performance would be nice this Sunday, I’m thinking that five or six receptions probably cashes our ticket.
Take: Moss
Most sacks
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
I’m expecting the Packers defense to have a little more jump in its step following that dominating performance against the Cowboys last week.
They sacked Cowboys QB Tony Romo five times in the 17-7 victory after recording only one in their previous two games combined. Niners QB Alex Smith has already been dropped seven times in three starts this season.
Aaron Rodgers takes a lot of flak for holding onto the ball too long and a lot of it is deserved. However, I think he can stay upright against a 49ers defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in sacks, with just 17 on the season.
The underdog price is what clinches this play for me. The Packers need a big performance before hitting the road for four of their final six games. They’ll find their way into the backfield early and often Sunday.
Take: Green Bay