Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns (-27.5, 57)
Football's Sweet 16
No matter how much fans, players and coaches want it, a playoff in college football is never going to happen. Texas' march to the national title is the closest we will get to it as they will have to stay perfect in their next three games (Kansas, Texas A&M, Big 12 title).
So fans can look at Saturday night's feature contest as college football's version of the Sweet 16.
The undefeated Longhorns have remained sharp with only Texas Tech and Oklahoma giving them a challenge. They have beat their other eight opponents by an average score of 46-11.
The defense is arguably the best in the nation giving up only 12.6 point per game and ranking first in yards allowed at 232.3 including giving up just 50.6 on the ground.
Saturday's contest also marks the last time that senior quarterback Colt McCoy will suit up in Austin. The four-year starter has had a stellar career leading his team to four straight 10-win seasons.
A tale of two seasons
The 2009 Kansas football campaign has literally been split into two seasons. The Jayhawks began 5-0 and then followed that up with five straight losses. Mind you, the first half of the season was mostly against non-conference cupcakes and the second was against the top teams in the Big 12.
The last two outings haven't been that bad though. They only lost by a touchdown to Kansas State and, in the last game, against Nebraska they held a 17-16 lead halfway through the fourth quarter.
Still losses are losses and it’s tough to tell how much of a challenge the Jayhawks will give to the Longhorns on the road. Talks of head coach Mark Mangino being on the hot seat and accusations by former players about his abusive attitude don't help either.
Quarterback Todd Reesing returns to his hometown of Austin which may provide some added motivation, but he is going through the worst stretch of his career. He has only thrown five touchdowns during the losing streak and, at 18 TDs for the season, he is well off the pace to hit 30 TDs - a feat he accomplished as a sophomore and a junior.
The line
The line opened at 26.5 in favor of the Longhorns and has only moved slightly to 27.5. Bookmakers have been happy with Texas this season, as most of the money tends to gravitate towards the Longhorns but they've only covered four times in 10 attempts.
Although, Texas has covered three times in four games since the Oklahoma game. Its only ATS loss was to Central Florida and by just 4.5 points.
Kansas' losing streak has affected its backers as well, having failed to cover the spread in its last seven games.
This is the largest amount of points that the Jayhawks have been given this year. In fact, they have not been underdogs by 20-plus points since their 2004 meeting with Texas. The Jayhawks were 23-point dogs and they covered, losing a close 27-23 contest.
Last year's contest had the visiting Longhorns as 14-point favorites and they covered winning 35-7. The last meeting in Austin took place in 2005 where Texas won 66-14 as a 32-point favorite.
The total for the game opened up at 55 and with early action on the over, it has moved up to 57 at most sportsbooks. Last year's total was set at 64 and it went under by 22 points.
An important thing to keep in mind with Texas totals (and spreads) this season is the Horns’ efforts towards the end of the game. In their last game against Baylor, the defense played perfect holding a 47-0 lead with five minutes left. But Baylor ended up scoring two touchdowns making the game go over.
The same situation occurred against Oklahoma State and UL Monroe, where the Longhorns gave points in the fourth to push the final score over the total. The opposite occurred in the Missouri game, where the defense shutout Missouri in the fourth to maintain the under
Mack Brown does not need to blow out teams to guarantee a spot in the national title game. So while a Kansas straight up win (+2000) seems unlikely, both the total and spread may come down to the final quarter.
Both teams are a combined 9-10 on the over/under this season.
Weather
A low of 46 is expected during the game. Wind will be light running North (endzone to endzone) at 6 mph. McCoy and Reesing should have no problem throwing long bombs, but the Longhorns docile mascot Bevo may be irritated by the 20 percent chance of precipitation.