The college football regular season is nearing its close and it has been short on spectacular individual performances.
Last year’s winner, Sam Bradford, suffered a season-ending shoulder injury and Tim Tebow, the 2007 Heisman winner, hasn’t appeared to be quite in top form all season.
The race has a clear frontrunner now: Alabama’s Mark Ingram. He wasn’t at the forefront of Heisman discussion at the start of the season. Now, he’s a solid favorite.
Odds provided by Logans.com.
Mark Ingram (even)
Why he’ll win: Not to discount Ingram – he has had a great season thus far rushing for 1,297 yards on 6.7 yards per carry – but he seems in position to win by default more than anything else. He’s been the best player on a high-profile undefeated team.
Why he’ll lose: His numbers aren’t as impressive recent backs that have won the award like Reggie Bush, Ron Dayne or Ricky Williams. If he’s compared to them, it won’t be good for his cause. He’s also going to play Florida in the SEC championship. He needs his team to win and to have a good showing. Otherwise voters might lean toward Florida QB Tim Tebow.
Colt McCoy (+300)
Why he’ll win: This could be an example of the career achievement Heisman. With no lock candidate, McCoy could be given the nod by voters who simply don’t feel overwhelmed by any of the choices. He’s had another solid season, throwing for 2,628 yards and 19 touchdowns and has completed 72.4 percent of his passes. His team is also undefeated, and it’s likely to stay that way when the ballots are cast.
Why he’ll lose: He had his worst game of the season in his team’s most high profile game thus far, going 21-for-39 for 127 yards against Oklahoma. Statistically, he isn’t having as good a season as he did last year, when he completed 76.7 percent of his passes and had 34 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He already has nine picks this year. It might seem weird to voters to give him the award when he has regressed.
Case Keenum (+300)
Why he’ll win: If you want the player who has the best numbers, this is your man. He has thrown for 4,194 yards this season to lead the nation. In 10 games this season, Keenum has passed for more than 300 yards four times, more than 400 yards two times, and has thrown for more than 500 yards three times. He also has 31 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. And it’s not unprecedented for a player from Houston to win. Andre Ware took the award in 1989.
Why he won’t: Keenum is immeasurably helped by two things: his offensive system and the lack of competition. Critics will mock Houston’s pass-happy offense and make the case that Keenum’s exploits are more a function of the system he plays in rather than his own talents. He also doesn’t play in a major conference.
Tim Tebow (+350)
Why he’ll win: Name recognition. Voters who don’t follow college football closely – and there plenty of them among the 870 who vote for this award – could check off Tebow’s name without much thought. He’s the most prominent player in the sport, and is the quarterback on the No. 1 team in the country. It’s not like there is another glaring candidate, so a voter could easily fall back on Tebow. His year has been fine – 1,730 passing yards, 604 rushing yards – but not what they have been in the past, especially when he won the Heisman in 2007, when he threw for 3,286 yards.
Why he won’t: The award is supposed to go to the “most outstanding college football player.” Can anyone make a legitimate claim that Tebow has been that this season? Hard to imagine. He hasn’t had as good a season as he did as a sophomore or junior.
Others listed: Kellen Moore (+1500), Toby Gerhart (+1500)
Sleeper pick: Jacquizz Rogers (+2500)
The pick: Mark Ingram (even).
The Heisman Trophy, unlike an actual game, is decided on paper. There really isn’t much reason to gamble when the evidence is already in. You’re not predicting uncertain performance. You’re just predicting how the sports media will react. That’s why I believe it makes sense to bet on the favorite.