Blake Edwards is an oddsmaker for Logans.com.
wonwiththehook (United States): If Indy and the Saints would meet in the Super Bowl, what would the line and total be?
We have an early Super Bowl line, NFC vs AFC. Currently, we have the AFC -2. The Colts are undefeated, but with their injuries are really starting to amount. I think they're going to struggle to get to the Super Bowl.
If they were to get to the Super Bowl and play the high-flying offense led by QB Drew Brees, I would make the Saints the favorite because I think they matchup very well against the Colts. It's purely speculation, but I would make the Saints -2 over the Colts if they were to meet in the playoffs.
Creepa (North Carolina): What statistical metrics or situational indicators do you look at when deciding what the pace of a game is likely to be when setting NBA totals? How do you decide what team will dominate the pace, like an up-tempo, run-and-gun team like Phoenix playing a walk-it-up team like Detroit?
Real tough question and it's always very difficult setting totals on teams that play an opposite style of basketball. I like to look at what those teams have done versus similar competition. So I would see how the Suns played against a team like the Celtics. Also, I'm a believer that the home team and the favored team is more likely to establish their style of basketball, so I would lean toward that when setting my total.
kansas24 (Texas): How many points do you give the NFL home teams?
It's a common assumption that the home field is worth about three points. But some home fields are worth more than others. Example, Denver Broncos where opposing teams are not use to playing in that high altitude. And Denver fans are very loud and raucous, so I would factor their home field more so than other NFL teams.
It also depends on the team. Some teams just can't perform on the road. Look at the Bears, they're 3-1 at home and 1-4 on the road. The opposite can be true. The Cardinals are 4-0 on the road and 1-3 at home. Their troubles at home have been factored into their game vs the Seahawks. The Cardinals are only laying 8.5 points to the Seahawks. Just two weeks ago the Seahawks were getting 10.5 points on the road in Dallas. The Cowboys and Cardinals are equal in terms of power ratings, so why the 2-point difference? Because the Cowboys hold a bigger home-field advantage than the Cardinals do.
96_Bulls: How many average games do your sharp bettors take per week? Also, what do they usually have to bet before you would consider moving a line (especially in the opposite direction of public money)?
I don't have that information off hand, but we book sharp action on a daily basis. We limit our sharp bettors to lower limits than we do our more recreational bettors and it depends on the sport as to how much we'll allow them to play. If we take a limit bet from a sharp bettor, we usually adjust the line immediately in the direction they bet. If there is overwhelming public action against the sharp bet, then we might not adjust it at all. It just really depends. Each sport is different and each wiseguy is different.
Biggest win of the week
Oregon going down to Stanford. Everybody was on the road favorite and for a college football game, we booked an absurd amount of teaser action on the Ducks. Stanford winning outright was a big score for the bookmakers.
Biggest loss of the week
Steelers rolling over the Broncos. It was one of our bigger decisions of the week and while the Broncos kept it close for a half, the Steelers eventually got it going and turned the game into a route. We lost big on this game. We also lost big on the halftime action, as everyone bet the Steelers and the over second half.
Toughest line to set
Toughest Line to Set: Iowa at OSU. This is primarily due to the Hawkeyes’ recent situation. Not only did Iowa lose to Northwestern, in a game in which it was a 14-point favorite, but their quarterback Ricky Stanzi is battling an ankle injury. Stanzi is doubtful for this game, so thats why it made it somewhat difficult to decide what to open with.
It is also difficult to know exactly what Iowa's mental state will be considering they did lose to Northwestern. While Iowa State can’t think about BCS Championship game anymore, they can give themselves the inside track to the Rose Bowl with a win in Columbus Saturday. Line has gone from OSU -14.5 to a current number of -17.