Every once in awhile the Gods smile on me and toss out a perfect lead. It happened this week when Chris Johnson spoke to reporters on Wednesday.
The Oakland Raiders’ cornerback told the Oakland Tribune that his team can still make the playoffs.
“If you really want to look at it, you can go 8-0 and you might end up 10-6,” Johnson said. There’s a possible way you can actually do it.”
Confidence is vital for dog hunters. You don’t want to back a club that’s mailed it in midway through the season. At the same time, you have to feel somewhat apprehensive believing in a crazy person.
Johnson is just trying to stay positive, so we’re not going to hammer him here. You’ve got to respect that kind of unwavering optimism. That’ll earn you some serious dough in the self-help book business.
Here’s a reason to feel cheerful: Underdogs are 18-8 against the spread over the last two weeks. That’s great news for bettors like me who prefer to take points rather than give them.
I loved my choices last week but after looking at this week’s board, I don’t feel as confident.
Because of that – and because I am coward – I’m going to dish three leans and two official picks.
You can’t blame me if the leans don’t work out, but you can certainly send me a thank you card if they do.
Leans
Philadelphia Eagles (+1) at San Diego Chargers
I loved the Eagles at the beginning of the week. Then news broke Thursday about Philly’s banged-up secondary. Even though I think Philly is the better team and will pull this one out, I have nightmares of Phillip Rivers picking that Eagles defense apart.
Kansas City (+2) at Oakland Raiders
The Chiefs are looking to avenge a loss at home to the Raiders early this year. KC outplayed Oakland that day, but still fell 13-10.
Oh, and JaMarcus Russell is the starting quarterback in Oakland. That in itself is reason enough to like the Chiefs.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at New York Jets
Both of these teams aren’t good. That only makes me lean slightly to the side getting points. Then again, New York is coming of its bye and still has the taste of that loss against Miami in its mouth.
OK, enough indecision. It’s time to man up and make some real picks.
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers
In a press conference last week, Cincy head coach Marvin Lewis was asked if how he felt about being an underdog to the Ravens. He said he didn’t know that his team was an underdog. I’m willing to bet my left pinkie Lewis looked for the line in this game.
And once he sees it, he’ll have the perfect opportunity to use the Rodney Dangerfield motivational card in the locker room.
“Fellas, we’re getting no respect!”
The Steelers are starting to roll but this line is based on reputations. The Bungles vs. the world champs. We won’t get fooled again.
Pick: Bengals
New England Patriots (+3) at Indianapolis Colts
Bill Belichick vs. Jim Caldwell: Checkmark, New England
Revenge factor: Checkmark, New England
Running game: Checkmark, New England
Health: Checkmark, New England
And those are the reasons I love the Patriots in this game. Indy’s won three of the last four meetings, so you know the Brady Bunch want this one bad. And those missing parts in the Colts secondary will be an issue.
Pick: Patriots
Last week: 3-0
Season: 15-12