Monday night debate: Who'll cover the spread?

By MATT LOEDE AND ASHTON GREWAL | November 9, 2009 | 23 comments
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It's Monday so that means it's debate time. This week Matt Loede of Steelers Gab helps us tackle Pittsburgh's question marks while Ashton Grewal sticks up for the dogged Broncos.

Defending Steeler Nation: Matt Loede of Steelersgab.com

The Steelers haven’t looked as sharp as they did at the tail end of last season. What’s the biggest difference between this year’s club and last year's?

The injury to Troy Polamalu on opening night against the Titans hurt and the team lost two close games to the Bears and Bengals when it was not able to close out the fourth quarter after having leads. Plus, the Steelers were unable to get the run game going early on, but things have turned around in their four-game winning streak.
 
Is Rashard Mendenhall a better fit – compared to Willie Parker - at tailback for Pittsburgh?

Mendenhall's power running style seems to mesh better with Pittsburgh's offense. Parker takes way too many losses going east and west instead of north and south. Mendenhall seems to have that burst that Parker has lost with his turf toe injury.
 
Why do you think the Steelers will cover the spread Monday against Denver?

They are playing much better on defense and, on offense, Ben Roethlisberger is playing at a Pro Bowl level. They will be able to throw the ball and they also should be able to get to Kyle Orton enough to force some mistakes.
 
Final score prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Denver 13

Break down on the Broncos: Ashton Grewal, Covers.com associate editor

Was Denver exposed at all last week against the Ravens?

A little bit. There isn't a lot of surprise to Denver's offense. The Broncos want to gain small chunks on each down and keep third downs in managable situations.

They have just three runs of 20 yards or more and 17 passes of 20 or more yards. Head coach Josh McDaniels calls plays that put his players in the best situation to succeed and that doesn't include airing it out much.

McDaniels is still smart enough to keep defenses on their toes even if it's of the dink and dunk variety.

Is Knowshon Moreno Denver's best option at running back?

Moreno is the most talented back on Denver's roster, but some Bronco fans are making noise about handing the starter job to Correll Buckhalter.

I tend to agree with that argument. Buckhalter, after years of playing in Philadelphia's system, catches the ball well, runs hard and can pick up the blitz in the backfield.

Why do you think Denver will cover the spread?

Denver's defense is going to get back to its nasty self. Pittsburgh's offensive line won't be able to keep Elvis Dumervil from driving Ben Roethlisberger into the turf.

The Broncos will control time of possession and eek out a narrow victory.
 
Final score prediction: Broncos 23, Steelers 20

23 comments
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bvpicks says:
11/09/09 02:12PM

As much as I hate the Steelers...I have to take them and give the -2.5.

alleyoh says:
11/09/09 02:56PM

Over being bet up already from 40 to 41. I expect the over under to be around 43 by game time which means 20-20 loser in OT.

alleyoh says:
11/09/09 02:56PM

Over being bet up already from 40 to 41. I expect the over under to be around 43 by game time which means 20-20 loser in OT.

bej0101 says:
11/09/09 04:56PM

pitt 24/13,,gl

gkastanza says:
11/09/09 06:37PM

The Steelers should be tired of hearing about how great Denver has been this year, which they have been I might add, however I think the Steelers make this a "STATEMENT GAME" tonight winning by at least a TD.

chau1027 says:
11/09/09 06:43PM

Hi brothers as I always say monday night home team underdog bet your mortgage on it Denver will win by at least one touch down good luck.

FATSTAX says:
11/09/09 06:52PM

ha...denver will get spanked,...Steelers by 13...

hardyc says:
11/09/09 06:52PM

i have to fade brandon lang after he went 5-0 this weekend. GIve me denver +3 and the over

FATSTAX says:
11/09/09 06:53PM

ps...chau1027 change your pic...thats sick!

tgray98 says:
11/09/09 07:09PM

Steelers struggle every week. Denver solid until Ravens "must win" road game. Denver to bounce back with 24-17 win --- over should be good with field goals.

nguyenhd says:
11/09/09 07:23PM

Chau1027, which one are you in the picture?. LOL.

win17 says:
11/09/09 07:30PM

Denver should win by 3.....GL!

Razor420 says:
11/09/09 07:34PM

Steelers are a little banged up on the Defensive side of the ball but are also rested and coming off a bye week at the same time which should help the offense. Small play on both Pittsburgh and the Over.

Pit 24

Den 20

SunnyVegas says:
11/09/09 07:40PM

The is no such thing as LOCK of the year. LOCK OF THE MONDAY NIGHT. The only Lock anyone should have is their behind from happy dude :-)

The past 5 plus years if you only have to give up less then a field goal on teams like NE, PITTS and INDY why wouldn't you?

These 3 teams are built for big games. Doesn't matter who they have on the field. They usually WIN.

My Monkey say take Pitts tonight and lay the small #.

Tonight Denver QB Orton choke and drop back to down reality.

Monkeybongos says:
11/09/09 08:35PM

Expecting a defensive game and Pitt victory. Pitt ml/U 41 (4 units to win 9) and Den +3/U 41 (3 units to win 7.5).

Game goes over: -7 units. Under/Pitt loss: +3.5 units. Under/Pitt win>3: +6 units. Under/Pitt win<3: +16.5 units.

Under/Pitt win by 3: +12 units.

polo012869 says:
11/09/09 08:42PM

Denver to win, and way way under the total.

Big Ben struggles against that Denver secondary tonite.

CastlesInTheSky says:
11/09/09 08:45PM

MonkeyBongos....thank you for realizing that both these teams are built on defense. Stop looking at the number people and look at how these teams are constructed. DEFENSE. why lay money on two defensive teams. yeah the steelers throw the ball this year but give the defenses some credit. Are they good enough to score and put the game over? Maybe, but DONT pound it. Trix are for kids.

CastlesInTheSky says:
11/09/09 08:48PM

The public is back to losing. I expect it to be a close game. I dont even like it, but I LOVE MNF. Ill take the home dog and sprinkle a little action on the under. Im sure half time will be the best bet of the night. GL.

mancans says:
11/09/09 08:52PM

MAYBE PITT GETS BEHIND AND HAS TO THROW DEFENSE OR NOT

CastlesInTheSky says:
11/09/09 09:11PM

Pitt will throw. But third and long is much tougher than 3rd and inches. DE FENSE!

bvpicks says:
11/09/09 09:32PM

The Broncos are a public favorite this year. After trading Jay Cutler in the off season and Brandon Marshall sitting out until the start of the season, expectations were low for this team. After starting 6-0 the Broncos are now a fan favorite. The Broncos lead the all-time season series 13-6-1 and hold an impressive 7-2-1 edge in Denver, including three straight wins. The last Denver win vs the Steelers at home was a Sunday Night Game in 2007 after a Pittsburgh bye week. The Broncos were 2-6 in their previous eight home games before beating the Steelers by a last second FG by Jason Elam. These trends tend to favor the Denver Broncos but what can't be overlooked is the simple fact that Broncos are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 home games and that the Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. What was overlooked is how well Big Ben played on the road in this matchup. Roethlisberger was 24-35 290 yards and 4 TD's

The Broncos offense could not get anything going vs the Ravens last week and they face a similar defense this week. The Broncos were 3-13 on 3rd down conversions and will need to improve this week if they expect to get the W. The Steelers are favored because they are running the ball better with Rashard Mendenhall averaging 4.5 yard per carry and I expect the Steelers to run the ball and wear down the Broncos DEF. On the flip side, the Steelers, who haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in their last 25 regular-season games, lead the league in run defense at 76.6 yards per game. This will force Kyle Orton to play a perfect game and I don't see him doing that against the Steelers defense.

Steelers -2.5

nizmolee says:
11/09/09 09:48PM

mr lucky logan been quiet lately... steelers are strong, gotta have one favorite to cover, especially for this week 9.. gotta be steelers. and over.

bvpicks says:
11/10/09 12:56AM

Congrats Steelers Backers!!

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