Ice picks: Saturday's best NHL bets

By COVERS.com STAFF | November 6, 2009 | 32 comments
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Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets (-182, 5.5)

The only NHL team yet to win on the road is the Hurricanes, who have been pretty bad everywhere but are awful when venturing away from home.

Overall, Carolina has eight goals in its last six games. That includes a 6-1 loss at Philadelphia on Halloween, a 3-0 blanking at Florida Wednesday and a 3-2 loss to the Leafs Friday.

The Hurricanes are 27th in the NHL in road scoring and 29th in road goals allowed. They also have taken the most penalty minutes (205) in road games and rank in the second half of the league in both sides of special teams on the road.

Carolina played and traveled Friday night, while first-place Columbus is 4-2 when coming off one day of rest and has won the last two meetings by a combined 9-2.

Pick: Columbus

Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins (-115, 5.5)

The Bruins have had so many problems finding the twine thay they almost revisited "old-time hockey" and the days of Eddie Shore.

Boston was less than a minute from its third straight shutout loss before scoring in the last minute of regulation in Thursday's 2-1 shootout setback to Montreal. The Bruins had not been shut out in three straight games since 1929, when Shore was between the pipes.

Goalie Tim Thomas is doing his part to keep the Bruins in games, allowing just four regulation goals in that span. In all, Boston hasn't played to the over in a regulation game since Oct. 12.

Meanwhile, the Sabres have played to the under in five of their last six games.

Pick: Under 5.5

32 comments
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jgmjgm says:
11/06/09 11:54PM

Lot's of ways to end the week on a positive note...

Teams with B2B situations for Saturday (listed in Caps):

Detroit @ TORONTO (ZAP-TAZE)

NEW JERSEY @ Ottawa

Atlanta @ NEW YORK ISLANDERS

BUFFALO @ Boston

St. Louis @ PHILADEPHIA

CAROLINA @ Columbus

FLORIDA @ WASHINGTON (Home & Home from Friday)

DALLAS @ Minnesota

Teams with 3-games-in-4-nights situations for Saturday (listed in Caps):

NEW JERSEY @ Ottawa

Atlanta @ NEW YORK ISLANDERS

BUFFALO @ Boston

CAROLINA @ Columbus

PHOENIX @ Anaheim

New York Rangers @ CALGARY

Pittsburgh @ SAN JOSE

jgmjgm says:
11/07/09 12:19AM

This week's O/U numbers. (From Sunday through Friday night's action.)

Overs 14 - Unders 26

Looks like after an offensive kickoff to the season, the totals are starting to drop since Nov. 1st. It's normal to see higher scoring games in the first month or so to get fans into hockey again. Higher scoring games means more viewership and bums in seats at the games.

Luckily it took the Books 2 or 3 weeks or more to adjust their lines up, so we were all able to cash in on the constant Overs.

Let's hope the same thing happens the other way now - more consistent Under games we can ride before the Books re-adjust again.

The_sports_babe says:
11/07/09 12:50AM

+3 units fri. night/devils in reg time. I see some of you enjoyed my little bit of humour last night . Thanks.

Sat. looks very dangerous to me. Flyers look tempting in reg. time but will pass. I try to stay away from west coast games [no offence LeeK] but I am not capable of getting a good pulse on the west coast teams.

+4.93 units/season....Keep posting and i'll keep reading[ if poss.]....TSB..

GmoneyB says:
11/07/09 12:52AM

what a night!! 7-0. up big!! i hope some of you guys took the advice. i'll have more picks for saturday's games, once i take a look tomorrow. have a good night and MAY THE WINNER'S BE OURS!!

KingKenny13 says:
11/07/09 12:54AM

Hello... did you just see that Shootout.... holy shittttt batman... Avs get the win... damn that was skinny... KABooooOOOMMMMmmmm... Sw31 slew MTR OIL this is for U... thanks for the PuK win fellas...peace out KK

jgmjgm says:
11/07/09 01:03AM

LeeK - I'm getting a little worried about that football game now. BC Lions down to their 3rd string QB after 1 & 2 went out with injuries and are not looking good to return.

That is pretty much the only possible scenario that Edmonton had going for them to win.

Nice finish by the Avs in a Shootout that took longer than the 3rd period to decide!

LeeK3 says:
11/07/09 01:06AM

yep nice Avs shootout win, going to the 8th shooter to decide it. I lost a quarter-unit juice tonight. Not sure who else I'll play besides Columbus but I like the rested home teams better against a team on a B2B, so I'll go take a look at Ottawa and Minnesota too. Thanks for the info JGM. And GmoneyB congrats on the 7-0 night. That is insane!!

jgmjgm says:
11/07/09 01:29AM

B2B Stats on the teams playing the back end on Saturday: (this season’s numbers only)

Toronto 0-2 / 1-1 OU

New Jersey 1-0 / 0-1 OU

NYI 0-2 / 1-1 OU

Buffalo 0-1 / 1-0 OU

Philadelphia 1-1 / 1-1 OU

Carolina n/a (probably because the Hurr L11 straight and broke the database)

Florida 0-2 / 1-1 OU

Washington 0-1 / 1-0 OU

Dallas 1-2 / 3-0 OU

LeeK3 says:
11/07/09 01:51AM

Yeah JGM, I was looking at the Devils and no way can I play Ottawa with the Devils winning 7 of 8 and 8 of 10, and Brodeur will be starting since Danis started tonight. I may even play the Devils as a dog. And then a high juice Washington and Detroit on a ML parlay. Will be my first time on Detroit all year. And I still like Minnesota at home against Dallas. Again, thanks for the stats.

rangersmets says:
11/07/09 02:06AM

Leek3, good point on the rested home teams facing a team playing back-to-back on the road. Another factor is if the B2B team wins the first night, they may be satisfied with at least a split and don't match the intensity of the rested team. It doesn't always work, but then again what does in this "hobby". Any edge you can get is huge.

Early leans Sat:

LA (lots of juice but as close to a sure thing on the board with Kopitar, Brown, Smyth and Co. going up against a nicked up Nashville team, without Weber and probably Dumont again).

Leafs at plus money at home against Detroit. The Leafs are getting their mojo going, Gustavsson was great in Raleigh and Kessel adds a lot to the offence. Think they ride the tide against a Detroit team with some key long-term injuries and some ?? marks in goal).

Anaheim over Phoenix. Good revenge spot here and the Ducks are starting to roll. Wisniewski is back after suspension and he eats 25 minutes on the D-line, giving Nieds more freedom to make it happen offensively.

Montreal over Tampa. Bolts very likely without their fine rookie Hedman and winding to the end of a road trip. Habs ride the mo' of another shootout win in Boston and get another important win as they look to stay in the thick of things in the very winnable Northeast Division.

Atlanta-Isles - over 5.5. Two teams that have played lot of hockey in last 2 weeks. Pavelec has come back to earth in last 3 games and the Isles will throw out their sieve de jour (Roloson and Biron, lol).

jgmjgm says:
11/07/09 02:09AM

I was also just looking at some of those same matchups actually LeeK. I also noticed that Pittsburgh is paying well as a Road Dog against SJ who is in the 3-in-4 category. Will need to check the tending matchups on that one.

Well I am totally disgusted with that CFL game. BC is getting absolutely killed - something you would expect when the starter has a busted thumb on his throwing hand; the backup looks to have a busted collarbone; and the 3rd stringer / emergency QB probably hasn't had a 1st team snap in practice all year. That one blowed up real good! If anyone has a system for capping in-game injuries, please let me know!

Think I'll call it a night and toss in Robin Williams on Broadway to wash my brain out...

flyguys says:
11/07/09 03:09AM

i like two home teams for sat.

kings ml

flyers ml

bodio says:
11/07/09 05:07AM

Record: 18-12

#1 Houston +1

#2 UTEP -7

#3 Oregon -7

#4 BYU -13.5

:guns: :albino: :guns:

luckylogan says:
11/07/09 12:30PM

2-1 last night with flyers and avs-loser Carolina! Will they ever win again?? Kings and Habs tonight! Thanks to the great hockey cappers here-Leek3, jgmjgm, rangersmets,etc-sorry if I left out someone!

thewild says:
11/07/09 01:06PM

took off this week. Logan who is the POW?

only play so far.....

CLEMSON -9

Too much speed for FSU.

powers13 says:
11/07/09 02:19PM

BOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM 5WINS AND 1 LOST IN HOCKEY LAST NITE...THANK YOU VERY MUCH.......... ....

TONITE........PHILLY........ DETROIT.... COLUMBUS......CALGARY...... PHOENIX......TO WIN... AND THE STAMPS IN C..F.L WIN ................ BULLLLLLLLLL YAAAAAAAAA

powers13 says:
11/07/09 02:21PM

BUFFALO TO WIN AS WELL............

brijon24 says:
11/07/09 02:41PM

rangersmets: like your analysis. i'm leaning towards a lot of overs tonight

luckylogan says:
11/07/09 03:33PM

POW IS BYU -13! posted last WED!

LeeK3 says:
11/07/09 03:44PM

As I hinted last night, I have a rare lay the wood game with the Jackets on the ML. I don't play much (if any) big ML games but I'd rather lay it then play the 1.5 and have them win by 1 and me lose the PL.

I also played another rested home fave against a road team on a B2B (the old Lee System), and then went against my system and took the Devils because a) they're a better road team than home team, b) Brodeur is rested and starting and c) the amazing run that the Devils are on in their last 10 games.

Another semi-rare play for me is a 3team parlay. I removed the Wings (since Gustavsson is starting again) and I added the Kings. I had it a 2-team but then added Calgary since I'm trying to limit myself to four plays per day, and by adding Calgary it now pays better than 3 to 1.

Dallas had 47 shots last night but only 2 goals against Cory Schneider. Before last night's big win over the Canucks, the Stars had lost 3 in a row. I see tentatively it will be Turco once again for the Stars, versus Backstrom for the Wild. The Wild are coming off a bad 5-2 loss to the Canucks where the Wild were 0-5 on the Power Play and Backstrom got shelled. I expect a bounce back game against a tired Stars team. And before that loss to the Cancuks, the Wild had beaten the Pens in Pittsburgh and the Rangers at home, so they have shown they can play with a Playoff team.

As far as that parlay, I just think the Kings are a better team, have won 6 of their last 8 games, and they seem to score a lot more at home. I like the Capitals over the Panthers in a home and home B2B where tonight the goalies will be Varlamov vs. Clemmensen, who has a 4.26 Goals Against Average in 3 games, while Varlamov carried the teams to the Conference Finals last year, and sports a 5-1 record so far this year. In Calgary, I like the home ice advantage and before the Rangers beat the Oilers (who had the flu) and scored 4 goals, they were not scoring much at all in the 4 before that (1, 1, 2 and 1), where they went a combined 0 for 12 on Power Plays. I think the Flames defense can keep the Rangers from doing much damage.

Cheers to a winning night, and Good Luck everyone!

COLUMBUS -210 vs Carolina, to win 1 unit.

MINNESOTA -125 vs Dallas, to win 1 unit.

New Jersey +120 vs OTTAWA, 1 unit.

L.A. -210 vs Nash, WASH -155 vs Fla, CAL -140 vs Rangers, 1 wins 3.1 units.

DDH420 says:
11/07/09 04:23PM

Man that shootout in COL was a squeaker but it came through in the end. Thank g-bus.

Loving CLB today but not that crazy high vig. I also like CAL at home and I am getting conflicting reports on who the starter will be for the RAGS.

WASH & PHI both look tempting but the B2B angle is a little worrying,might play the two together and see what happens.

Just have to go to ZAMBONIPOST.COM and see who will be parked in the garage for the night.

Back with some total trends in a bit.

StokesChargers says:
11/07/09 06:51PM

7 Play Saturday...

Found some value in this DET/TOR game with TOR on a B2B. I think DET wins this game, and they I think to do so they will need to score 3+ goals and get off to an early lead in the 1st period, as most teams to against the Leafs.

The Canadiens are playing better at home, and seem to have no problem lighting the lamp with the help of their home crowd. They should win this game and again get more than 2 goals on home ice on Saturday night against a team playing on the road. Parlaying this with the Ducks at home, who are also playing some better hockey.

I love the Jackets in this spot tonight, but then again I loved the Hawks a few nights ago and we know how that turned out. Going to lessen the juice here and play the regulation line against the worst team in the league.

The NJ/OTT has under written all over it. Brodeur is rested, Ottawa is playing good hockey, and so are the Devils. These types of games where you have 2 teams off to get starts seem to always be low scoring and tight. Going to parlay this with the +1.5 in the PIT/SJS game. The penguins are a good team and good teams bounce back from losses like their previous one, especially considering how they just collapsed in the 3rd period.

My POD is Calgary over the Rangers. I am going to the game, which makes it all the more exciting, and the backup is in for New York and the Flames have just come off 2 roads wins where they looked amazing, IMO. I have trouble believing the rangers can go into Edmonton and woop them and then come to Calgary and beat them as well.

#1: DET (-0.5) @ TOR 1st Period (+160) risk 1 unit

#2: Parlay: MON ML and ANA ML (+178) risk 1 unit

#3: DET Over 3 Goals (-121) to win 1 unit

#4: MON Over 3 Goals (+102) risk 1 unit

#5: CAR @ CLB (-0.5) Regulation (-113) to win 1 unit

POD: #6: NYR @ CAL (CAL ML) (-140) to win 1.5 units

GLA. Feeling good tonight and the Flames win will be all the more sweeter seeing it first hand.

My spreadsheet: http://stokeschargers.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

thewild says:
11/07/09 07:02PM

Nice call on BYU Logan, I missed that play.....

I love GB -10 tomorrow.

DDH420 says:
11/07/09 07:40PM

CLICKED & PICKED: Well the week has not been too bad all things considered and I am even coming into tonight.

....NHL

PHI PL-1.5 +185 risking 10 units

CAL ML -140 to win 10 units

3 gamer PHX PL+1.5.PHX/ANA U 5.5,CLB ML 10 units = 28 units

BOL & HAVE A SAFE & FUN WEEKEND.....

jgmjgm says:
11/07/09 08:17PM

Flames + Over

Colum~bus

SK -1.5

Plus 4 of 7 winners today from the Breeders Cup, including Horse of the Year - Zenyatta!

More Ponies - Less NBA

ZamboniesAreAFriendOfMine.com

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