It’s not often that ABC's lead broadcast crew of Kirk Herbstreit and Brent Musberger pick a Big East contest over a USC or Oklahoma game, but that's the case this Saturday when the UConn Huskies (4-4 7-1 ATS) visit the No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0 6-2 ATS) on prime time this Saturday (8PM, ABC regional).
There is more than enough motivation for the home team to make a statement on national TV with the Bearcats sitting fifth in the BCS. Combine that with the sour taste of last year's 40-16 loss to the Huskies and you can see why Herbstreit and company are making the visit.
Pike or no Pike
The biggest concern coming into Saturday is the status of Cincinnati QB Tony Pike (doubtful as of Friday) who has missed the last two games with an arm injury.
But even without their star, the Bearcats have not missed a beat offensively thanks to the impressive performance of backup Zach Collaros. In decisive victories over Louisville and Syracuse, the sophomore completed 82 percent of his passes on 548 yards and 7 TDs. Collaros is also a threat on the ground with 213 rushing yards and 2 TDs this year.
Regardless of QB, UConn will have to contend with an explosive offense that has outscored Big East opponents 150-49 in four contests and ranks 10th in the nation in passing.
Cincy’s Mardy Gilyard leads all receivers with 53 receptions, 734 yards and 9 TDs, but UConn’s D will have to play him honestly. The running back combo of Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey is not statistically impressive, but both their abilities to break for big runs in Brian Kellly's no huddle spread, has allowed for the passing game to make big plays.
Fourth-quarter heartbreak
UConn has been victim to late game-winning plays in all their losses this season. In last week's 28-24 loss to Rutgers, the Huskies gave up an 81-yard pass with 22 seconds left on the clock. Before that against West Virginia, Noel Devine scored the winner on a 56-yard run.
In their first two defeats against North Carolina and Pitt, UConn held the lead going into the fourth quarter, but they failed to score a single point and gave up the game winning plays in the closing minute.
Frazier's second chance
What is often overlooked with the Bearcats is their defense which has only given up 12.9 points per game this season.
Under the direction of defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, the Bearcats have taken a more aggressive approach with a new 3-4 defense and it’s resulted in 29 sacks.
UConn will need a big game from running backs Andre Dixon and Jordan Todman in order to open up the passing game. They have combined for 1,374 yards and 15 TDs.
QB Zach Frazier has a second chance to prove himself after UConn lost starter Cody Endres for the season with a separated shoulder. Frazier was the starter at the beginning of the year, but lost his job after two horrible games in which he threw four interceptions.
Things did not look any better last week with a 45.7 percent completion rate and three INTs.
The line
The spread for the game opened at -16.5 in favor of Cincinnati and now sits at -17 at most books.
Even without Pike the Bearcats have been double digit favorites the last two weeks resulting in paydays both times. They also boast a decent overall ATS (against the spread) record at 6-2 and remain 4-0 ATS against Big East opponents.
UConn is an impressive 7-1 ATS, though the lone loss came last week as 7-point favorites against Rutgers.
Weather
A low of 47 is expected at night and wind could play a factor with SSW winds (end zone to end zone at Nippert) expected at 18 MPH. This will have to be considered with UConn's kicking game as Dave Teggart is 3-for-8 in the last three games.
Other notes:
- In last year's contest Cincinnati was a 3-point favorite. The previous meeting at Nippert Stadium in 2007 resulted in a 27-3 Bearcat victory over then No. 16 ranked UConn. The Huskies were 6-point favorites.
- Cincinnati is 4-1 overall in this series
- The total has remained steady at 51.5 at most books. Cincinnati games have gone under five times in the last six games, with an average of 46.8 points being scored in those games.
- UConn is in the opposite direction on totals, with five of their last six games going over the total. However this is the first time this season that the Huskies have had a total over 50 points.
- Last year's total of 44 went over with 56 points scored.