With all the news out of Dallas this season – Tony Romo isn’t the long-term answer at quarterback, the defense has lost it, the offense has no rhythm and Wade Phillips is an inept coach – you’d think the team was vying for a Top 10 draft pick.
But the “disaster” that is the Dallas Cowboys has emerged as a contender in the NFC East and has been helping over players fatten their bankrolls all season.
The Cowboys are 5-2 SU, but more importantly 5-2 over/under this season, matching the record of the high-octane Saints for the second-best mark in the league. Only Philadelphia (6-1 o/u) is a better over play this season.
Save your cash, ride the Cowboys, indeed.
So what’s the reason for Dallas’ ability to routinely go over the total?
Tony Romo haters – including Jessica Simpson -- aren’t going to like this answer. I mean, when the guy said he broke up with Carrie Underwood to “focus more on football,” I was all over him. But the numbers don’t lie for the Cowboys’ Casanova.
Dallas is second in the league in total offense, averaging 411 yards and 28.1 points per game. Romo is one of the big reasons why, ranking ninth in the league in passer rating and completing 60 percent of his throws for 1,908 yards with 12 touchdowns against just four interceptions. And the offensive line has been doing a great job – giving up just 13 sacks – and paving the way for a suddenly dominant rushing game.
Despite rotating the banged up trio of Tashard Choice, Marion Barber and Felix Jones as the team’s featured running back, the unit is sixth in the league in rushing offense, averaging a phenomenal 5.4 yards per carry to go with eight rushing scores.
On the other side of the ball, the defense is ranked No. 22, giving up more than 341 yards and 19 points per game. The team has recorded 17 sacks and posted nine takeaways, but a still-under-construction secondary has been a big reason the unit has given up 23 plays of 20-plus yards this season. That’s a far cry from the group that led the league with 59 sacks and forced 22 turnovers last year.
The combined record of Dallas’ opponents so for this season is 21-29, but the group has shown an ability to light up the scoreboard against better teams, including scoring 31 against the Giants and 37 against the Falcons. One thing is for certain this season – when the Cowboys are involved, there are plenty of points to be had.
So what are you waiting for? Cowboy up!
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
The books are daring you to play the over.
With a total of 49 points and two teams with questionable defenses, high-scoring offenses and a combined over/under record of 11-3, this one seems a little fishy.
Don’t worry, it’s not.
The over has gone 3-0-1 in Dallas’ past three trips to the City of Brotherly Love, and with both team’s offenses back on track and putting up points, expect plenty of explosives in this one. Overall, three of the team’s past four meetings have gone over the total. After this week, make it four of five.
Pick: Over 49
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
On paper, this game appears to be a shootout waiting to happen.
Not so fast. The Texans have done a great job keeping quarterback Matt Schaub upright this season, and the emergence of running back Ryan Moats means balance for the Texans offense – something it will need with tight end Owen Daniels lost for the year.
The Colts, meantime, have shown cracks in their armor, giving up a big rushing day to 49ers running back Frank Gore and struggling to gain big chunks of yardage through the passing game.
The Texans defense has been improving all season, and if the squad controls the clock, they will turn the game into a grind-it-out affair. Plus, the over has hit in each of the team’s past eight meetings. That trend can’t continue.
Pick: Under 49
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
The Cardinals had been one of the best under plays in the league this season before being run all over by the visiting Carolina Panthers last week. Expect the team with one of the top run defenses in the league to fix that problem this week against the mercurial Bears.
Chicago had a chance for a statement win against a horrid Browns team last week, but floundered its way to a painful 30 points, while continually settling for short field goals and wasting key turnovers.
The Arizona offense also is an unknown, with Kurt Warner giving interceptions away like Halloween candy last week. And fantasy owners – like me – who took Larry Fitzgerald in the middle of the first round are looking for balconies to jump from.
The Cardinals are starting to play ugly – and the Bears always are.
Pick: Under 45.5
Last week: 1-2
This season: 9-15