What bettors need to know: Hokies at Pirates
By
MATT FARGO - I'm dedicated to improving my clients ability to win
November 4, 2009
10 comments
Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates (+13, 51.5)
Line movement
The line has moved anywhere from a half point to two full points depending on the book. Early shoppers could have gotten Virginia Tech as -11.5 at a few shops but that number lasted only a few hours.
Weather
It will be a cool night with the temperatures lingering in the high 40s but no chance of rain with light winds from the northwest.
Letdown or revenge?
Three weeks ago, Virginia Tech was No. 4 in the nation and was a contender BCS Championship Game. But two straight losses have quelled that talk and now the Hokies are just trying to stop the bleeding.
Going out of conference in the middle of the season after suffering back-to-back conference losses is a recipe for disaster, but Virginia Tech might not be a bad play here. The Hokies want to get some payback after suffering a loss to the Pirates in Charlotte last season.
Under head coach Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech is 14-2 ATS when coming off a loss and playing against an opponent it lost to in the previous matchup.
BCS vs. the other guys
This is the first time the Hokies have played a true road game against a non-BCS opponent since 2002 when they, then in the Big East, played at Western Michigan. That’s a span of 33 straight road games against BCS opponents.
East Carolina stands seventh nationally among all non-BCS programs with six victories against automatic-qualifying BCS members since 2003. The Pirates have already lost the two games against BCS opponents this season, West Virginia and North Carolina, but both of those games came on the road.
The Pirates have won three of their last four games against ranked opponents. Three of their last four home games against ACC members, so playing and winning against BCS teams is certainly no problem for East Carolina.
Third time’s a charm
East Carolina has limited its last three opponents to a combined 13-for-39 conversion success rate on third down. In third-down conversion attempts of more than two yards, the Pirates have held all eight of their opponents to a combined success rate of 28.1 percent (25-89).
This could be an issue for the Hokies who are 65th in the nation in third down conversions, going 41-105 on the season (39.1 percent). During the last two losses, Virginia Tech is just 8-23 on third down conversions (34.8 percent).
Bottom line
The Pirates have been good in these spots holing a 4-0 ATS mark in their last four home games as an underdog of 10.5 or more points. They are also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog overall.
Virginia Tech is 7-0 to the under when playing on a Thursday over the last three years, averaging just 32.8 points per game in those contests. The under is also 6-0 under the Beamer-led Hokies when coming off a loss by three points or fewer.