What bettors need to know: Bowling Green at Buffalo

Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls (-3.5, 53.5)

The Mid American Conference steps into the spotlight Tuesday night when Buffalo (3-5, 1-3) hosts Bowling Green (3-5, 2-2) in an East division battle at the University of Buffalo Stadium. The game is televised on ESPN2.

The Bulls opened a 4-point favorite and have moved down to -3.5.

Weather update

Mostly cloudy with the temperature expected to be in the lower 30s. West winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Bull twit

One year removed from its first bowl game ever, Buffalo has returned back to the pack in 2009. After dropping a disappointing 34-31 overtime decision at Western Michigan 10 days ago, Turner Gill’s troops will likely need to run the table if they wish to go bowling for the second-straight season.

The MAC has bowl tie-ins with the Little Caesars Pizza, International and GMAC bowls and the divisional winners are guaranteed bowl berths.

A victory tonight would be a start, but, even with winless Miami up in two weeks, the Bulls have never won a game (0-5) in Oxford, Ohio.

The Bulls will need a better defensive effort against the Falcons than they produced against the Broncos. Western Michigan finished with 505 yards of total offense against Buffalo, its second-best production of the season.

The strength of the Bulls' offense is the passing game. The only time QB Zach Maynard has passed for fewer than 210 yards was in his first start at Texas-El Paso. WR Naaman Roosevelt, the best receiver in school history, along with fellow wideout Brett Hamlin and tight end Jesse Rack, are all enjoying career seasons.

RB Ike Nduka has emerged as a running threat. The Bulls lost standout running back James Starks before the start of the season, but In Buffalo's most recent game against Western Michigan, Nduka carried 18 times for 172 yards and a touchdown. He has rushed for over 100 yards in three of Buffalo's last four games.

Buffalo’s Achilles’ heel has been the turnover bug. Seventeen turnovers lost and only six gained ties the Bulls for 103rd nationally in this critical category. Only eight of the 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams own worse numbers.

The Bulls are 3-0 this season in games in which they held opponents to 17 or less points. They are 0-5 when surrendering 20 or more points.

"We wanted to win a championship, we wanted to go to a bowl game, but it's not in our hands anymore,” said Buffalo linebacker Justin Winters.

Falcon findings

Bowling Green coach Dave Clawson is a Western New York native and a former assistant at Buffalo. This game will be a homecoming of sorts for Clawson.

Falcon QB Tyler Sheehan has completed 65 percent of his passes for 2677 yards with 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions.

WR Freddie Barnes had 14 receptions for 172 yards and a TD against Central Michigan on Oct. 24. He leads the nation in receptions (99), yards (1054), touchdowns (nine), yards per game (131.8) and receptions per game (12.4). He has 37 more receptions and 173 more yards than the second place player in each category. It’s no surprise that Barnes is prime contender on this year’s list of candidates for the Fred Biletnikoff award.

Stopping the run remains the biggest concern for Bowling Green. The Falcons are allowing 201.7 yards per game on the ground on an average of 5.7 yards per rush.

Through Bowling Green's first eight games this season the Falcons have allowed an opposing player to rush for at least 100 yards six times. Bowling Green is 1-5 in those games.

Keeping it close

"I would rather lose a close game than a blowout. That means we're not that far away. We've played some good football against some good football teams. We just have not made those critical plays to get us over the top. You continue to go back and teach, fix the problems you have. You try to get those things corrected and it you do that you'll start winning football games,” contends Falcons head coach Clawson.

Bad blood

Wind the clock back to last season. Down 14 points entering the fourth quarter, Buffalo rallied in double overtime to beat Bowling Green and go on to capture the MAC East title, play in the conference championship game and in the International Bowl as a result. The loss denied the Falcons a seven-win season and possible bowl berth.

Buffalo is 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS in this series. The underdog is 5-1 ATS.

Post A Comment

Post A Comment