Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-11, 55)
Line movement
The Saints opened as 9-point favorites. The line has moved all the way to -11 and some offshore shops have it listed as high as -11.5. The total has been moved up to 55 most everywhere after opening at 53.5.
On the flip side
While it’s been the New Orleans’ high-octane offense that’s garnered most of the headlines this season, and deservingly so, the defensive unit has played nearly as big a role in the Saints perfect 6-0 start.
The Saints’ ‘D,’ led by safety Darren Sharper, has feasted on big plays this season. The group has forced 18 turnovers (tied for the league high) and scored six touchdowns. Three of those scores were registered by Sharper, who has six interceptions overall.
“That (turnover) statistic is one area that’s glaringly different for all of us. It has helped us a bunch as a team,” Saints’ coach Sean Payton told the Associated Press. “You hear each week talk about this Saints team scoring 39 points per game, and I think the myth initially is that the offense is scoring all those points. The reality of it is that there are turnovers involved in there. There’s a lot that goes into a number like that that can get skewed. So the takeaways have been significant.”
The Saints’ ball-hawking defense could be in for another big day. The Falcons have been struggling with turnovers of late. Quarterback Matt Ryan was intercepted twice and had two fumbles - losing one - in the Falcons’ 37-21 loss in Dallas last weekend. Ryan is coming off consecutive games with at least two interceptions for the first time in his young career.
“Any time you lose the turnover battle in this league, it’s tough to come back and win games.” Ryan said. “So that’s my focus this week, to be better with the football, but at the same time you can’t lose that aggressiveness. You have to continue to go out there and try to make plays.”
Injuries
The Saints will be without two significant contributors. Fullback Heath Evans was placed on injured reserve this week because of a torn ACL and starting defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis is also out because of a knee injury.
Evans has been a key blocker in the Saints’ running game, which ranks third in the NFL. He also had three touchdowns, two coming on short receptions near the goal line.
“He’s to date really played well for us both in the running game and the passing game,” Payton said. “You never like to lose a starter. It will be up to the rest of these guys at the tight end position, fullback position, potentially one of our halfbacks to take over that role, but it does change what you’ve been accustomed to with the starter that’s out.”
The Falcons have been hard hit by injuries, especially in the offensive backfield and along the defensive line. Jerious Norwood, who backs up Michael Turner at tailback, is expected to miss a second straight game because of a hip flexor.
Jason Snelling, who filled Norwood’s backup spot last week and responded with 68 yards on seven carries against the Cowboys, has been limited this week because of a hamstring injury and may not play.
Fullback Ovie Mughelli has also been limited at practice this week after missing the previous two games with a calf injury.
“Well, we are not going to make excuses, but we like to have our first-line players out there,” said Falcons’ coach Mike Smith. “I think Ovie is an outstanding blocking back and in our two-back running game he’s a big, big part of it.”
As for the defensive line, starters John Abraham (foot), Jonathan Babineaux (ankle) and Thomas Johnson (calf) are all listed as questionable. Kroy Biermann was also added to the injury report late in the week because of a neck injury.
Head-to-head
These teams split their two meetings last year. Atlanta covered as 1-point home favorites 34-20 in November and the Saints came back a month later to avenge the loss with a 29-25 home win as 3-point favorites. Both games went over the listed total.
Trends
The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight-up loss. The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up win. The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
The over is 10-3 in the Falcons last 13 games following a straight-up loss. The over is 11-2-1 in the Saints last 14 games as a home favorite.
The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in New Orleans.