Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3, 47.5)
Round 2
It was only a month ago that Brett Favre became the first quarterback in league history to beat all 32 NFL teams when leading the Vikings to a 30-23 win over the Packers as 4.5-point home favorites. Favre now returns to Green Bay for the first time to face his old team in what promises to be an emotionally-charged division battle.
The Vikings took Round 1 despite being outgained by the Packers 424-334. That was due in large part to a pair of Packers’ turnovers and a monster Minnesota pass rush that sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times.
Hold that line
The Vikings (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) boast the league’s best pass rush with 24 sacks this season. Defensive end Jared Allen was virtually unstoppable in these teams first matchup as he had 4.5 sacks, a forced fumble and a safety. He figures to be licking his chops once again as the Packers’ offensive line, which ranks 31st with 25 sacks allowed, remains in flux.
Starting left tackle Chad Clifton is continuing to battle an ankle injury, which could leave rookie T.J. Lang to start in his place for the second straight game. There is also uncertainty at center as Jason Spitz deals with a lower-back injury that could keep him sidelined.
On the flip side, the Packers pass rush was anemic in Minnesota. Green Bay (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) barely got any pressure on Favre, who was 24-of-31 for 271 and three touchdowns. He did not throw an interception, wasn’t sacked and, in fact, was barely even touched.
Despite the lack of pass rush, Packers’ defensive coordinator Dom Capers indicated there won’t be more blitz packages dialed up this time to pressure Favre.
“We could go out and blitz every down and probably hit Brett Favre,” Capers said. “But our chance of winning the game, I think, goes down.”
Capers said it wasn’t necessarily the lack of pass rush that did in the Packers, but instead focused on third-down defense, making stops in the redzone and limiting big plays.
The Vikings were 8-of-14 on third down, perfect in the redzone and 123 of their 334 yards of total offense came on four plays, all passes.
Rounding into form
The Packers have reeled off consecutive wins by a combined score of 59-3 since their loss to the Vikings. However, those wins did come against two of the league’s worst teams in Cleveland and Detroit. The beleaguered Packers’ offensive line does have something to build on as it did not allow a sack to the Browns - the first time that has happened this year.
“They’re going to need to carry over the same kind of confidence they had against Cleveland into this game and hopefully be able to give me some time,” Rodgers told the Green Bay Press-Gazette. “Personally, I need to get the ball out of my hands as quickly as possible to get it to our playmakers and let them do their job.”
The Vikings are coming off their first straight-up loss of the season, a 27-17 setback at Pittsburgh as 6-point underdogs.
More injuries
Vikings’ Pro Bowl cornerback Antoine Winfield was ruled out for the second consecutive week because of a foot injury. He will be replaced in the defensive backfield by the three-man committee of Karl Paymah, Asher Allen and Benny Sapp, each of whom played well vs. the Steelers last week, Vikings’ coaches said.
"It's hard to replace a Pro Bowl corner in our league that does all the things that Antoine does for our defense, but it was great to see Paymah, Asher and Benny step in and play the way they played," defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier told the Associated Press. "We are going to need it again this week."
Receiver Bernard Berrian (hamstring) was listed as questionable as was Percy Harvin, who returned to practice Friday after missing work the previous day.
The big news on the injury front for the Packers is the status of starting tight end Jermichael Finley, who is doubtful. The second-year pro caught six balls for 128 yards and a touchdown in these teams first matchup. He did not practice this week but could still see game action, according to coaches.
“Jermichael is unique,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy told the Green Bay Press-Gazette. “I think we all recognize that as far as the matchup opportunities that he gives you, which was evident in the game up there in Minnesota.”
Line movement
The Packers have held steady as 3-point favorites, but the total has been bet down to 47 at most shops after opening at 48.5.
Weather
The forecast for Green Bay calls for partly cloudy skies with a high of 48 degrees. Showers are set to arrive later in the evening.
Trends
The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss….4-1 ATS in their last five road game…7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings in Green Bay.
The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite…8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC North.
The Under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings in Green Bay.