What bettors need to know: WVU at South Florida
By
LEE KOSTROSKI - My handicapping is extensive, exhaustive and highly productive
October 29, 2009
12 comments
West Virginia Mountaineers at South Florida Bulls (+3, 47.5)
The skinny
For the third straight season, South Florida started the season at least 5-0 before suffering a midseason losing streak. The Bulls lost two straight games to ranked Big East opponents and now face a do-or-die situation against WVU before they close their season with a difficult stretch of games.
West Virginia is heading in a completely different direction. After an 11-point loss at Auburn on Sept. 19 (a game in which WVU out-yarded the Tigers 519-400), WVU has won four straight by an average of 13.7 PPG.
The Mountaineers enter this game after an emotional comeback victory over UConn while the Bulls enter it after a 27-point shellacking at the hands of Pittsburgh. Both teams could really use a victory to gain a little credibility in the Big East.
QB problems
After USF Senior QB Matt Grothe was lost for the year with a torn ACL, redshirt freshmen BJ Daniels stepped in and led the Bulls to two straight wins and it looked as if South Florida was going to be alright.
But Daniels has regressed in the last two games, completing just 47 percent of his passes for 131 yards per game and throwing four interceptions and one touchdown.
Daniels was benched in the Bulls’ blowout loss to Cincinnati a week ago and now he faces a West Virginia defense that has allowed just 52 percent completions and forced nine interceptions the past four weeks.
Mountaineer QB Jarrett Brown is also suffering through a cold streak. He was knocked out of the game against Marshall and has thrown for a meager five touchdowns and five interceptions the past five games.
“Devine” Mountaineer
West Virginia running back Noel Devine has had quite an October. He has rushed for 592 yards on a 6.8 YPC average with six total touchdowns with a chance to add to those numbers Friday night. In the second half of last week’s game against UConn, Devine had 14 carries for 171 yards and the game including a winning 56-yard touchdown run.
South Florida has allowed 403 rushing yards in its last two games on a 5.1 YPC average. Last week, Pitt running back Dion Lewis racked up 111 yards and two touchdowns.
They have had good success against WVU however, holding the potent Mountaineer rushing attack to just 153 YPG the past three years.
Line movement
This line opened with West Virginia as a 3-point road favorite. It moved to -3.5 at a few spots, however, the consensus has kept the Mountaineers as field-goal chalk. The total on this game opened at 47.5.
Trends
West Virginia is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 conference games, 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog and 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games.
WVU has finished over the total in five of the last seven games overall and USF is 4-1 over/under in its last five games. The Bulls are also 9-3 over/under in last 12 home games but the last four meetings between these two teams have stayed under.
West Virginia has been favored every time it’s faced the Bulls but it has only covered once since 2005. It’s split 2-2 SU with the average of just 35 total PPG.
Weather
The high in Tampa on Friday will be very hot at close to 90 degrees. By game time it will still be in the 80's with very little chance of any precipitation.