Brett Favre has played in two Super Bowls and countless playoff games, but if he answered honestly he’d tell you this is the biggest game of his life.
NFL fans and bettors have been anticipating this matchup for years but the pointspread is somewhat anticlimatic. The books are dealing -3 Green Bay making them the favs because of the home field. Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants, doesn’t agree with the number.
“We sent out -3, but, in my personal opinion, I thought it would have been better at -2.5,” Seba says. “Green Bay would normally be getting 3 or 3.5 points for home field, but this line suggests it’s a bit more.”
While the Packers have dominated their last two opponents (Detroit and Cleveland), Minnesota has impressed throughout the campaign, even in a losing effort against the Steelers.
The Vikings were in good shape to cover and win outright at Pittsburgh, but two late TD returns kept Favre and Co. from improving to 7-0 straight up.
The Pack have been a little less consistent this season with their most impressive win coming against the Bears in Week 1 at Lambeau.
“I think Green Bay is getting closer, but I don’t think they’re there quite yet,” Seba says.
The biggest match of the week on the AFC pits the Broncos against the Ravens. Denver is getting a shade more than just the standard 3-point home field, but Seba says it’s with good reason.
“This game would have been -7 or -7.5 (Baltimore favored) at the beginning of the season. You have to remember that teams that are coming off a loss and a bye week are hitting at about an 80 percent clip against the spread.”
The Ravens lost 33-31 to the Vikings before their bye week, making it three straight losses a club many place still among the league’s best.
Meanwhile the Broncos are in a much better position sitting undefeated and comfortably ahead in the AFC West. Seba says the difference in desperation between the two sides is something to consider.
“It’s not always who you play, it’s sometimes when you play them.”
The San Francisco 49ers know all about that. They were the talk of the West Coast after starting the year 2-0 and nearly knocking off the Vikes in Minnesota. But two straight losses make San Fran an 11-point dog against the pipsqueak squashing Colts.
Niners coach Mike Singletary is going to keep former No. 1 overall draft pick Alex Smith under center after he engineered a near magical comeback Sunday against the Texans.
“I think San Francisco has the better chance of winning with Smith. That’s the case right now, but it might not be in a few weeks.”
Seba also isn’t completely sold on the 6-0 (5-1 ATS) Colts.
“I’m not so sure on Indianapolis because they still haven’t played anyone. All they’re doing is blowing out bad teams.”
Indy’s lone win against a quality opponent was in Week 2 at Arizona.
The Jets, fresh off an easy win over the Raiders, get a chance to avenge their Week 6 loss to the Dolphins, in a game that could decide second place in the AFC East.
Seba says LVSC sent out -4 and was surprised to see the number drop to -3.5 so quickly.
“If you look at the power ratings, the line is probably closer to -6.”
Seba also likes the psyche of New York compared to the Dolphins. He suggests the loss to the Saints had to be a demoralizing one for the Fish, who led that game 24-3 at one point.
“It’s almost like coming into this game you have two different mentalities. I think -4 or even -4.5 is the better number.”
Other games this weekend: Cleveland gets 13.5 at Chicago; Houston gives 3.5 points at Buffalo; Seattle gets 9.5 points on the road at Dallas; The 0-6 Titans give 3 points at home to the Jags; Oakland gets 16.5 visiting San Diego; Arizona is giving 9.5 points to the Panthers and New Orleans is a 9.5-point home fave Monday night against the Falcons.
The line for the Rams-Lions game won’t be released until the books know who’ll start at quarterback for Detroit and the pointspread for the Giants-Eagles game will come down following Philly’s game against the Skins.