Randy Scott is the Sportsbook Manager for betED.com. Each week he breaks down the pointspreads, action, wise bets and line movement for every game on the board.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5, 44)
Opening Line: -4, 43.5
Where the early action is: 94 percent - Chargers
Comments: It will be interesting to see if the Chargers can finally be written off as grossly overrated this year. The Chargers are going to have to dig deep to come out with a win in KC and that’s what everyone expects, but they don’t play well in Arrowhead. The Chargers are getting some serious backing this week and that’s bringing the line up, we expect that to continue and may go as high at 6. We give the Chargers moderate odds to win the game outright, but we warn caution laying the 4.5-point spread.
Fact: The Chiefs have a total of nine interceptions in Phillip River’s six career starts versus Kansas City
Indianapolis Colts at St. Louis Rams (+14, 45)
Opening Line: -13, 46
Where the early action is: 91 percent - Colts
Comments: All Colts action, all week long and we don’t expect that to change Sunday. The line opened -13 and was immediately hit by the public. This is rare, because usually the public waits until Sunday to get their bets in. But there is no doubt in anyone’s mind the Rams suck and the Colts don’t. It was a quick and easy decision to move the line up to the key number 14. We expect -14.5 to show up sometime.
Fact: 93-20—Point differential of opponents to Rams in the second half this season. Rams have been outscored 32-7 in the first quarter, 38-3 in the third quarter and 55-17 in the fourth quarter.
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (PK, 42.5)
Opening Line: CIN -1 (-120), 43.5
Wise Action: Bears +1
Where the early action is: 65 percent - Bears
Comments: The opening line reflected the Bengals owning a slight home field advantage, but the wise guys don’t see it that way. Betting the Bears +1 brought the line to a pick’em. This is set up to end Bears being the favorite by game time. Usually, when the wise guys bet on a very short underdog - the favorite will change sides.
Fact: The Bears defense has only allowed 4.75 yards per play this season, sixth best in the NFL
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+9, 41)
Opening Line: -7, 42.5
Where the early action is: 98 percent – Packers
Comments: This will be another huge decision for the books. No one is backing the Browns in this spot and it’s hard not to agree with that. The Packers are in a perfect spot here to easily walk into Cleveland and walk out unharmed with the win.
Cleveland is in a world of hurt right now. The Browns should be winless this season and the team now has more key injuries than ever. Also this week, to make it even harder on the Browns, the flu bug has hit their locker room. That bit of news shot the line up from -7 to -9
This will be great game for the Packers to hone their skills for the huge rematch versus the Viking in Lambeau Field next week.
There isn’t much here that says Cleveland can cover this spread on their own, perhaps the Packers will help us with that.
Fact: Packer’s defense has been outstanding; stopping 14 consecutive third-down plays for a first down.
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 46)
Opening Line: -3.5, 45.5
Wise Action: Steelers -3.5, Over 45.5
Where the early action is: 60 percent - Vikings
Comments: Wise action hit the Steelers early this week moving the opening number two points. This line could go to six considering the Viking’s pass defense ranks 24th in the NFL and the Steelers are rolling on offence averaging 296 yards per game. INJ: Vikings CB- Antoine Winfield is out; which will only help Ben Roethlisberger complete passes.
The Vikings are looking for their seventh consecutive road victory here. Although the Vikings are very lucky to be undefeated, they have outscored their opponents 51-10 in the fourth quarter this season.
This will be an ironman test for the Vikings; teams that face back-to-back defenses of this caliber (Ravens last week) usually come up short.
Fact: Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 28 straight games.
New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15, 44) (AT WEMBLEY STADIUM, LONDON ENGLAND)
Opening Line: -14, 45
Where the early action is: 95 percent - Patriots
Comments: Another automatic fade play against Tampa Bay by the bettors, that's easy considering who they are playing this week. The action is guaranteed to stay this lop-sided. That should bump the number up some more to combat an abundance of teaser action.
The odds Tampa Bay will win this game are astronomical and the point-spread isn’t doing a good job splitting the action. The fear here is Tampa Bay might not score a touchdown against the Patriots.
The Patriots will run the ball against a very poor TB defense and do nothing but eat up time. The total has already moved down a point and could drop even more by game time.
Fact: Since 2005, Tom Brady is 13-0 against the NFC
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3 -120, 44)
Opening Line: -3, 44
Where the early action is: 85 percent - Texans
Comments: Last week the bettors won big by backing Houston as a road underdog in Cincinnati and this week they are jumping back on. The line looks stuck on the number 3. Additional juice is the only movement thus far. We expect the pointspread to move off of the 3 by game time. The Texans have been outstanding against the run giving up a total of 135 yards in their last three games. San Francisco will indeed have Frank Gore back but that doesn’t scare anyone, the Texans easily shut down Cincinnati’s league leading rusher Cedric Benson last week. If the 49ers don’t get pressure on Texans QB Matt Schaub they could end up with exactly the same problem they had versus the Falcons two weeks ago in a 45-10 home loss.
San Francisco WR- Michael Crabtree will be making his first NFL start.
Fact: The 49ers rank second in the NFL in yards allowed per rushing attempt with 3.3 yards.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+6, 34.5)
Opening Line: -6, 35
Where the early action is: 80 percent - Jets
Comments: Both teams have something major to prove this week. The Jets are coming off a brutal loss to the lowly Bills where we saw Mark Sanchez throw five interceptions, that’s one less than the Jets single-game record. And the Raiders have to prove their huge upset win against the Eagles last week was no fluke. This is a tough one to get a read, the Jets should get the job done but we warn caution, Sanchez is in a major funk and the Raiders are recharged playing back-to-back home games.
Fact: Oakland currently ranks 27th in rushing defense.
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 36.5)
Opening Line: -7, 37.5
Wise Action: Under 37.5
Where the early action is: 55 percent - Panthers
Comments: Bills QB Trent Edwards (concussion) is listed as doubtful, so that means Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the call this week. Fitzpatrick got the job done last week coming off the sidelines in the second quarter and leading a come from behind win over the Jets in overtime. He’s had all week to prepare this start, so he should be ready to go. The poor play of Edwards this season and Fitzpatrick’s NFL experience makes this an upgrade at the QB position for Buffalo. This will be a new Buffalo offence we haven’t seen this season, they have the weapons to do some damage. They could take Carolina by surprise.
Carolina will run the ball against this poor run defense team. The Bills own the league’s worst run defense, on average allowing 181 yards on the ground. That’s a big average to shore up against the two headed monster Carolina has in DeAngelo Williams and Jon Stewart.
Under is the wise bet here, and the total is still good to follow at 36.5.
Fact: Williams and Smith each topped 100 yards last week versus Tampa Bay.
New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (-6.5, 47.5)
Opening Line: -7, 46.5
Where the early action is: 97 percent - Saints
Comments: The Saints are 100 percent winners ATS this season and the bettors aren’t about to jump off the Saints money wagon versus Miami. We expect the action to stay one-sided. Miami has won two games in a row and is well rested for this game coming off the bye week. That’s the reason for the line to be moved off of the key number 7. The heavy one-sided action will bump the line back on 7 by game time.
One way Miami can keep the Saints from scoring their average 38 points per game is to kill the clock every time it gets the ball. We expect the Dolphins to run the wildcat often and should keep this game close, but if they lose their grip, don’t expect much to change in regards to the Saints dominating offense scoring a ton of points again this week.
Fact: Miami leads the regular-season series history 6-3
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 47.5)
Opening Line: -3, 47
Wise Action: Cowboys -3
Where the early action is: 69 percent - Cowboys
Comments: The big bettors are jumping on the Cowboys this week. That will help balance the action because the public likes Atlanta a bit more than the Cowboys this season. This is a must win game for Dallas, a poor showing here could mean some big changes coming from up top. The stats say Dallas wins at home, but not by 4. We give the Falcons decent odd to cover the four points this one and we will be looking to keep the line as low as possible.
Fact: The Falcons have given up zero sacks in the last four games.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-7, 46)
Opening Line: -7, 46.5
Where the early action is: 70 percent – Giants
Comments: The Giants get the popular opinion here because they are highly ranked and have covered four out of six spreads this season. That’s enough to keep the backers coming.
The number is painted Giants -7 and looks poised to stay that way right up to game time.
As good as Arizona looked last week in Seattle, the Cardinals simply do not play well at the Meadowlands. In fact, the last time they won in that stadium was in 1999. However, No one is really sure what’s going to take place in this game. The Cardinals’ defense was outstanding last week and for right now they aren’t a one-dimensional team anymore. The Cards should give the Giants all they can handle this week. We give the Giants big odds to come out with the win, but on the other side, give Arizona moderate odds to cover 7.
Fact: Eli Manning has only 22 completions in the past two games.