Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 44)
Line movement
Oddsmakers opened with the Chargers giving four points to the visiting side and the total set at 43.5. The line quickly dropped to 3.5, but bookmakers seem intent on keeping this above a field goal spread.
Kyle gets the last laugh
Many people doubted (some even laughed) when newly appointed Bronco coach Josh McDaniels said in the offseason that Kyle Orton would do a great job running his offense.
Orton was considered as a thrown-in piece in the Jay Cutler trade, but where would Denver be now if the former Bears quarterback wasn’t leading this team?
Orton took home AFC player of the week honors after throwing for 330 yards and two touchdowns in the 20-17 overtime win against the Patriots.
“He’s smart; he understands what we do,” McDaniels told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “There are no limitations in terms of him running our offense. He gets better every week.”
Orton is described as a game manager rather than a playmaker, but Denver backers have to love his decision making. He owns a 138.7 quarterback rating in the fourth quarter this season as well as a 26-12 record as a starter in this league.
Defensive shakeup
The Chargers defense is the main reason the team sits at 1-3 against the spread this season. Two of their four opponents have registered season-high point totals against the Bolts defense and another topped 30.
The bye week offered the Chargers a chance to do a little bit of house cleaning. They released starting safety Clinton Hart and re-signed defensive tackle Ian Scott.
“There are always multiple reasons why you make a move,” head coach Norv Turner told reporters. “We had a chance to help ourselves on the defensive line. We were carrying an extra safety. We feel the young guys are coming along and are ready to play.”
Scott, who was one of the team’s final cuts in the preseason, should help boost a D-line that is missing two DTs including Pro Bowler Jamal Williams.
On a separate note, outside linebacker Shawne Merriman is telling reporters he should be much more active in Monday’s game than he has been in his previous two matches. Merriman was limited due to a groin injury, but the bye week has him feeling much better.
San Diego is allowing over 150 rushing yards per game and totals just four quarterback sacks coming into the game.
Running with the devil
Both sides are having some issues gaining yards on the ground. While Denver owns a fantastic yards per carry average (4.6) and picks up over 130 yards rushing each week, the team hasn’t been able run the ball effectively in short yardage situations.
The Broncos are 0-for-3 running the ball in goal line situations inside their opponents’ 3-yard line, according to the Denver Post.
This would be a perfect week to improve on that weakness. San Diego’s run defense ranks 27th in the league and Denver is expected to have all its running backs healthy and ready to play.
The Bolts, on the other hand, have no run game to speak of. Veteran tailback LaDainian Tomlinson has been limited this season because of a nagging ankle injury, but he did look good against the Steelers two weeks ago.
San Diego is on pace to finish the season with just 320 rushing attempts.
Tomlinson says he has to get more carries to be successful.
“The running game is all about getting in rhythm,” he told San Diego reporters. “Yeah, we haven’t had the opportunity to run it much. I’m confident when we do, we’re going to be successful doing it.”
Trends
This is a clash of two different over/under teams. San Diego goes for the big play early and often, partly because no lead is safe with the way its defense is playing.
The over is 3-1 in SD games this season.
Denver, meanwhile, is much more conservative with its game plan knowing it can rely on its defense to keep things close. The Broncos have played under the total in each of their five games.
The Mile High crew is also a perfect 5-0 against the spread, but San Diego has had Denver’s number over the years. The Bolts are 5-0-1 ATS versus the Broncos over the last three years.
Weather
It’s typical San Diego weather in the forecast for Monday night – sunny, 69 degrees with just 10 percent of rain.