The tip off of the NBA season is just a crab dribble away. Covers.com ramps up its season preview with a look at the best bets and season win total picks for the Atlantic Division.
Boston Celtics (season win total 56.5)
2008-09 stats: 62-20 straight up; 43-39 against the spread
Offense: 100.9 points per game
Defense: 93.4 points per game
Everything was lining up for Boston to win a second consecutive championship until Kevin Garnett pulled up lame in Salt Lake City. All the candles lit in New England couldn’t heal the Big Ticket’s trick knee, leaving the Celtics left to defend their title with smoke and mirrors.
Team management knew there had to be a win-now approach with the Big Three all on the wrong side of 30. With this in mind Danny Ainge added pivot Rasheed Wallace and versatile swingman Marquis Daniels to the fold.
Bettors should forget the high-scoring Celtic team they saw in last year’s playoff series with Chicago. Boston’s defensive intensity will return to its 2007-08 level with Garnett back in the fold. Don’t forget - the under was 33-23 in the 57 regular season games KG played in.
Wallace, whose talent is only matched by his gift to gab, is already telling reporters that the 96-97 Bulls’ 72 wins is within in reach for this year’s Celtics. While that might be a little too bold of a prediction, it’s safe to say the C’s will regain their spot as top dog in the Eastern Conference.
Pick: Over
Philadelphia 76ers (40.5)
2008-09 stats: 41-41 SU; 36-44-2 ATS
Offense: 97.4 ppg
Defense: 97.3 ppg
Can Elton Brand fit in with this group? That’s the question you have to ask yourself. If you believe the former 20-10 regular can, then you probably like the Sixers’ future.
I personally have my doubts.
Brand was the big offseason acquisition in the summer of ’08. His arrival was supposed to push Philly into the upper echelon in the East. But he never gelled with his new teammates and the 76ers didn’t play good basketball until a shoulder injury pushed Brand out of the way. With the All-Star power forward on the floor, the Sixers managed just 11 ATS wins in 29 games.
The hope in Philly is that a new coach (Eddie Jordan) and a new system (Princeton offense) will fix the awkward situation.
Of course the transition would be easier for Philly if it had kept Andre Miller around to run the show. Instead, Jordan hands the keys to his motion offense over to shoot-first point guard Louis Williams.
There are just too many problems to ignore with this squad.
Pick: Under
Toronto Raptors (41.5)
2008-09 stats: 33-49 SU; 33-47 ATS
Offense: 99.0 ppg
Defense: 101.9 ppg
Raptor GM Bryan Colangelo struck out on his two biggest moves since taking control of the Dinosaurs. First it was T.J. Ford and last season it was Jermaine O’Neal. Raptor fans hope Hedo Turkoglu doesn’t make it a hat trick.
The multitalented point forward brings excellent ball handling and distribution skills to the Canadian club. The downside is that he doesn’t rebound particularly well for a 6-foot-10 player. That could be troubling seeing how the Raptors will start Turk in the frontcourt with perimeter-vacating big men Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani.
There could also be some on-court friction with Turkoglu and starting point guard Jose Calderon. Hedo plays best when the ball is in his hands while Calderon is a superior guard because of his ability to create offensively.
Still, there’s too much talent on this roster for the Raptors not to win at least 42 games.
Play close attention to the over/under lines through the season for Toronto. Bettors should pounce on the over anytime the Raptors see a total posted below 200.
Pick: Over
New York Knicks (31.5)
2008-09 stats: 32-50 SU; 47-34-1 ATS
Offense: 105.2 ppg
Defense: 107.8 ppg
It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Knicks. Coach Mike D’Antoni brought fun back to MSG and he even helped New York gain some respect around the league. Last year’s club stayed close in many games it had no business being in.
The Knicks return with pretty much the same roster that they finished up with last season. They added some talent in the draft but even No. 8 overall pick Jordan Hill appears to be a year or two away from contributing.
There isn’t much separation in talent between the starters and the bench players at just about every position, so expect to see different lineups frequently in the season’s first half.
As tempting as it is for bettors to blindly bet the over for D’Antoni-coached teams, it’s a bad strategy. Oddsmakers were ahead of the game last year with their early season over/under lines for the Knicks.
Pick: Under
New Jersey Nets (28.5)
2008-09 stats: 34-48 SU; 43-38-1 ATS
Offense: 98.1
Defense: 100.5
The last of the Big Three left town when the Nets dealt Vince Carter to Orlando. Rebuilding mode is in full effect. Lawrence Frank’s club still boasts one of the league’s rising stars at point guard, but skeptics question how successful Devin Harris will be with defenses zeroing in solely on him.
Center Brook Lopez showed promise in his rookie campaign and Courtney Lee, who came over in the Carter trade, is a solid starting two.
It doesn’t take a genius to tell this group is going to struggle putting the ball in the hoop. The Nets’ best chance of winning games will be in low-scoring affairs. That’ll be an adjustment for Harris, who prefers to push the ball and drive to the hoop early in the shot clock.
Pick: Under