Ugh, look at yourself.
Your hair is falling out, your knees sound like broken glass when you walk and I'm pretty sure you're a B-Cup.
These are the thoughts that go through my head just three days from my 30th birthday.
I'm not much for self loathing, but my body is falling apart quicker than a Hollywood marriage.
It's my own fault.
Too much football (watching not playing), too little exercise (my muscles not my gums) and far too many grilled-cheese sandwiches (they're so easy. And tasty!) have taken this once-elite athlete from dribble-drive threat to Dell Curry-style, 3-point line to 3-point line player. Add in the occasional beer and a shrinking metabolism and I'm one double-stuffed Oreo from wearing sweatpants other than just on weekends - and morning and evenings.
It's time to trim the fat. And where better to start than my rolls – bankrolls that is. With most schools kicking off their college basketball seasons with Midnight Madness this week, it is a perfect time to see where college hoops bettors can drop dead weight from their wagers and get slim and trim by the time conference play starts.
Here's a conference breakdown of the high-fat, high-vig teams you're tempted to bet and a low-fat, affordable alternatives. Bet one of these teams for breakfast, one for lunch, followed by a sensible dinner and your bankroll will look like Dan Marino fresh off of NutriSystem.
ACC
You're thinking: Duke and UNC. The two most public teams in all of college basketball are tough to squeeze even an ounce of value out of. North Carolina has had the talent to cover its hefty spreads but will suffer a transition this year with real work needed in the backcourt. And the Blue Devils are back to square one without a proven go-to scorer. Duke's top guns, Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer, are far too inconsistent to be worth the price a bettor pays, especially on the road.
Try betting: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Yellow Jackets could do the biggest turnaround in college hoops this season. After finishing with a 2-14 record in conference play last season, Paul Hewitt's squad has been considered a threat to the Tar Heels in the ACC. But despite returning a ton of talent, including junior Gani Lawal and senior D'Andre Bell, and bringing in five-star recruit Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech will hover below the radar with UNC and Duke stealing all the headlines in the ACC. Also, I'm liking Florida State's progress without Toney Douglas.
Big Ten
You're thinking: Michigan State. The defending Big Ten champs and national title runners-up should be back in title talks with a strong returning backcourt that features point guard Kalin Lucas. But the Spartans lost some big bodies up front. Part of their success was rebounding and not giving up second-chance buckets last season. Michigan State will be hard pressed to clean the glass this season and games will be closer than coach Tom Izzo would like.
Try betting: Michigan Wolverines. The Wolverines have a savvy coach in John Beilein, who should have this strong group of returnees more comfortable in his unique offensive sets. Michigan brings back top scorers Manny Harris and DeShawn Simms, who led the Big Ten's fourth-ranked offense. The Wolverines will build on that but also have shown a mean streak on the defensive side that has teams thinking twice about driving the lane. Behind MSU and everyone's "sharp pick", Purdue, UM could surprise a lot of people with a Big Ten title this year.
Big East
You're thinking: Villanova. The Wildcats were pegged as Big East champs when Scottie Reynolds announced he was putting off the pros. Reynolds is one of the best pure scorers in the country but as much as the Wildcats counted on him last season, it was departed big man Dante Cunningham who really made the difference for Villanova. The program doesn't have anyone to fill that scoring and rebounding role, turning to incoming freshmen and junior Antonio Pena to replace an NBA talent.
Try betting: Seton Hall Pirates and St. John's Red Storm. The Pirates were one of the best bets in the country last season, going 17-10 ATS in a very competitive Big East. They bring back almost everyone from that roster including standout junior shooter Jeremy Hazell, who was second in conference in scoring. Seton Hall also welcomes a trio of stud transfers, who will be all eligible come conference play.
The Red Storm are bringing back the majority of their roster as well as fifth-year senior Anthony Mason Jr., who missed nearly the entire season with a knee injury last year. Coach Norm Roberts also has a strong recruiting class coming in, highlighted by JuCo studs Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee. A down year for the Big East should let programs like the Johnnies and Pirates keep games close and even knock off some conference heavyweights.
Big 12
You're thinking: Kansas and Texas. It's hard to come up with a reason not to bet on these two powerhouse programs that could be 1-2 in the national polls. But the Jayhawks have a tough sked that features Cal, Michigan, UCLA, Memphis and Tennessee before conference play even begins and the Longhorns don't have any cakewalks with UNC, Michigan State and a starter-rich Arkansas program lined up for non-conference play.
Try betting: Kansas State Wildcats. Denis Clemente is one of the most underrated players in the country. He's the biggest reason why KSU closed the season with 22 wins and finished two games above .500 in conference play. But when teams started to pay the explosive guard extra attention, the Wildcats struggled to find points elsewhere and couldn't cover for backers. Enter top recruit Wally Judge and former UConn transfer Curtis Kelly. Those two should give KSU the punch it was missing in the frontcourt and take the pressure of Clemente.
Pac-10
You're thinking: California and Washington. Honestly, either one of these teams could be an amazing bet all season. Since the Pac-10 gets no love – mostly due to being on the West Coast and getting no prime-time exposure – the betting market is slower to react to teams' success. However, if you have to pick two teams that will grab national headlines, it's the Golden Bears and Huskies. Both teams finished in the black last year but the cat's out of the bag, especially on UW.
Try betting: Oregon State Beavers. Catch the Beaver fever while you can (had to say it). Don't knock OSU's CBI tournament title last march, it could be just the spark this program needs to climb the standings in a down year for the Pac-10. The Beavers bring back almost everyone and are one-year wiser in coach Craig Robinson's high-post offense. Oregon State took two wins over Cal last season and finished with the postseason with six straight covers – five as an underdog.
SEC
You're thinking: Kentucky. The excitement in Lexington is enough to make a man get hammered and go for a Sunday drive. The Wildcats have been the darlings of the offseason, bringing in John Calipari and his lovable band of five-star freshmen that will call UK home for one year. Kentucky has always been a public play and the addition of guys like John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins should force books to pile the chalk on the Cats. Perhaps the only time you will find value in UK is on December 5 when they face UNC at home.
Try betting: Vanderbilt Commodores. The Commodores do all the little things that win ball games. Last season, they rebounded well and ranked second in the SEC in defense. But when it came to offense, Vandy fell short, scoring just over 70 points per game. A lot of that had to do with health issues. Center A.J. Ogilvy was slowed by a bum wheel and illness while Andre Walker missed all but three games due to a torn ACL. Those guys are healthy and join perhaps the most underrated frontcourt in the land. As a complement to those big bodies, coach Kevin Stallings brings in highly-toted shooting guard John Jenkins. Jenkins averaged more than 42 points per game his senior year in high school and could be a big-shot maker in the mold of former Davidson star Stephen Curry.