Randy Scott is the Sportsbook Manager for betED.com. He gives us a detailed account of NFL line activity leading up to Sunday's games.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (+10.5, 40.5)
Opening line: -10, 40.5
Where the early action is: 92 percent - Vikings
Comments: Big win earlier this week for the Vikings on Monday night versus the Packers. It was the first game the 4-0 Vikings actually had the lead at halftime. Kyle Boller will make his second start in place of the injured Marc Bulger, which doesn’t help the Rams’ chances. The early action is heavy once again on the Vikings and we expect it to remain that way. The Vikings could be in a dangerous let down spot here. They might look past this game and on to three tough games ahead of them.
Fact: The Rams have lost 15 of their last 17 home games
INJ: St. Louis - QB Marc Bulger (Rotator Cuff) is downgraded to doubtful,
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (+9, 42.5)
Opening line: -9, 43
Where the early action is: 55 percent - Cowboys
Comments: Both teams lost last week and both desperately need a win this week. The Cowboys are looking for their first break out game and the Chiefs are looking for their first win. The straight bet action is light on this game due to the high spread. Like last week, the bettors are going back to teasing these higher spreads. The line will likely stay where it is, we aren’t sure what to expect from either team and give this line toss-up odds to cover either way. Teaser bets on this game will be our major decision.
Fact: The Cowboys have lost three consecutive times to AFC teams heading into Arrowhead this week.
Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-4, 37.5)
Opening line: -3.5, 37.5
Where the early action is: 89 percent - Panthers
Comments: The winless Panthers come off a bye week at home against a Washington team that has two wins but those were against winless teams; Rams and Bucs. Basically, the Redskins are the worst .500 team in the league. This is a huge game for the Panthers and we think they will come out recharged and desperate. Despite their strong running game, look for Steve Smith to put up some big numbers. The action is heavily one-sided which caused the line to move up. We expect the line to continue to grow. We give the Panther huge odds to win and moderate odds to cover the spread.
Fact: The Redskins have owned the Panthers in the past. The series history between these teams is 7-1 Redskins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-16, 41.5)
Opening line: -16, 43.5
Where the early action is: 52 percent - Eagles
Comments: The Eagles are coming off a bye week at home against the winless Buccaneers. QB Donovan McNabb (ribs) and RB Brian Westbrook (ankle) are both expected to return. The early straight bet action is very light on this game with teasers once again taking on majority of the bets. The odds give Tampa Bay almost zero chance to pull off an upset, but the Bucs have grit and we like them to stay within 16.
Fact: Philadelphia has never lost the week after the bye since Andy Reid became the team's head coach in 1999. They are 10-0.
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-16, 38)
Opening line: -16.5, 41
Where the early action is: 55 percent - Giants
Comments: This line was held off the board for most of the week due to Eli Manning’s injury status. It was announced Saturday he will play. The Raiders are a troubled team and we don’t see this as a turn around game for them. Oakland’s run defense ranks 26th in the league and Giants offense ranks sixth on the ground. The action is light so far, the line has only been open a few hours, but we expect the action to pile up on the Giants and rightfully so. Oakland will have a hard time finding the end zone again this week.
Fact: Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell can’t hit the broad side of a barn; he has completed less than 40 percent of his passes in the last three games.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-6, 41.5)
Opening line: -6, 40
Where the early action is: 77 percent - Bills
Comments: Last week the Bills showed us how bad they really are against the winless Dolphins losing 38-10. It’s major desperation time for both teams, so expect anything. No one is betting this game with real money, the volume is low with only a few bets on the favorite. We give both teams big odds to lose.
Fact: The Browns last win was 10 games ago against the Bills in November 2007.
INJ: Cleveland - RB Jamal Lewis (hamstring) listed as questionable.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9, 42.5)
Opening line: -9, 41.5
Where the early action is: 68 percent - Bengals
Comments: There are some Bengals backers out there who feel this line is too high. Sure they beat Pittsburgh and Green Bay, but they also struggled last week against the Browns. If you can get past that, then this line if for you. We are holding it high for a reason and probably won’t lower it. We expect balanced straight bet action and one-sided teaser action.
Fact: The Ravens average 10.7 points allowed in their last 10 home games.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+10.5, 44)
Opening line: -11, 43
Where the early action is: 93 percent - Steelers
Comments: All Steelers action all week – especially teasers. With Matt Stafford out with a knee injury, Daunte Culpepper gets the start. Our bettors aren’t taking any chances with this one and are loading up teasing the Steelers. There is no way to balance this type of action. No one is touching the Lions this week. We’ll need a Steelers let down game to keep from taking a big hit.
Fact: Ben Roethlisberger is currently carrying a huge 73.2 completion percentage.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 40.5)
Opening line: -2.5, 41
Where the early action is: 59 percent – 49ers
Comments: This should be a very interesting game. The 3-1 49ers are clicking even without RB Frank Gore and the 2-1 Falcons come off their bye week, after losing to the Patriots. The Falcons had a hot start to their season prior to their loss two weeks ago; can they get back up to that level? A win here would do it. We expect a close game as the line suggests, but give the 49ers a slight home field advantage.
Fact: Shaun Hill’s record as a starter at Candlestick is 7-0.
NJ: San Francisco - RB Frank Gore (ankle) expected to miss
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3.5, 41)
Opening line: -4, 41.5
Where the early action is: 52 percent - Broncos
Comments: The 4-0 Broncos are once again a home underdog. Normally this would be a surprise for an unbeaten team to not get recognized like this each week, but each week their opponents are getting stronger and stronger. The line opened Patriots -4 but was quickly bet down to -3.5. There are some strong Broncos backers this week, unlike last week. The public bettors are starting to believe in the Broncos defense and see the home team staying within 3 points. There is more money line action on the Patriots. We aren’t sure what to expect, except it will be a shocker to see the Broncos 5-0.
Fact: The Broncos lead the regular season history versus the Patriots 24-16
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 50)
Opening line: -5.5, 48
Where the early action is: 72 percent – Texans
Comments: Arizona comes off its bye week after getting routed by the Colts at home 31-10. Everyone knows the Cards have not played well at home yet this season. The odds indicate this week will be their turning point, but the betting public seems to feel otherwise. Matt Schaub is white hot averaging 291 passing yards per game. Are we going to see the high flying Cards of the past? The over/under suggests a high scoring affair.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-1, 44)
Opening line: Pick, 44
Where the early action is: 92 percent – Seahawks
Comments: Seattle – The bettors have jumped on Seattle because QB Matt Hasselbeck is expected to play. This couldn’t come soon enough for the 1-3 Seahawks. They have only once had an offensive play over 25 yards since Hasselbeck went down. However, they are playing against a streaking Jacksonville team. That’s what makes this game a pick’em. Seattle will be tested on the ground; the club couldn’t stop Frank Gore a few weeks ago and might have the same problem against Maurice Jones Drew. We agree this game is truly a coin-toss. The best thing the Seahawks have going for them is the home field.
Fact: Jacksonville has only three sacks this season, which ranks last in the league.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+4, 44.5)
Opening line: -4, 46
Where the early action is: 85 percent - Colts
Comments: Two teams going in opposite directions. This will be a heavily bet game because it’s the last game of the day. We’ll look to balance the bets as evenly as possible, if the action remains this way by mid-Sunday, expect the line to move up. The winless Titans are sticking to their winless ways this week. A bit surprising to us, we expected something to change, especially at QB. On the other side Colts QB Peyton Manning is completing almost 71 percent of his passes and has 9 TD passes for 1,336 yards. But maybe we won’t see a high-flying game. That’s what dropped the over/under on this game.
Fact: Titans RB-Chris Johnson leads the NFL in rushing with 434 yards.