Monday night debate: Who'll cover the spread?

By ASHTON GREWAL AND DAVE CAREY | October 5, 2009 | 25 comments
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There are enough storylines in Monday's big game to keep a room full of writers busy for months. We grabbed two of the lesser talented ones and got them to go over some of the main points bettors are talking about.

Who is the better quarterback right now: Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre?

Ashton Grewal: It pains me to say this because I love to hate Brett Favre, but you have to be impressed with the way old Greybeard is playing.

Favre can still make all the throws and I’ll take his experience over Rodgers’ young legs any day of the week.

The truth hurts. Favre’s still got the edge on his former understudy. Now excuse me please, I think I’m going to throw up.

Dave Carey: It’s like asking if you are a legs or chest man: you can’t go wrong with either answer. Personally, I like Rodgers – and not just because of his fantastic beard. He has demonstrated plenty of toughness, is entering the prime of his career and doesn’t force ESPN into 24-hour coverage of his drama. He gets the most out of his receivers and has emerged as the leader of the offense, not a distraction.

Will Green Bay’s offensive line be able to hold off the Purple People Eaters’ front four?

Carey: Nope. Because even if the interior line of Green Bay can find a way to block the Wall of Williamses – Vikings defensive tackles and part-time bulldozers, Pat and Kevin Williams – there is a gaping hole at left tackle.

The biggest matchup in the game will be Vikings stud defensive end Jared Allen against backup left tackle Daryn Colledge who is filling in for the injured Chad Clifton. Allen is going to eat the former Boise State star alive and will spend so much time in the Green Bay backfield that squatting rights may apply by the fourth quarter.

Grewal: It’s hard to make an argument for Green Bay’s O-line. I’m certain Mike McCarthy made prepping his line the main focus of the week. He’s got a creative offensive mind and I’m sure he’ll come up with some ways to get the ball out of Rodgers’ hand faster.

Still, the Packers signal caller is going to see a lot of purple jerseys up close. Rodgers is going to get hurried and he’s going to get hit.

What’s the over/under on pass attempts for Favre in this game?

Grewal: I think the Vikes win on Monday and that means Favre won’t pass more than 28 times. Minny’s ground game will take over which means No. 4 won’t have to fling the ball around much.

That is, of course, as long as Favre doesn’t let his ego get the best of him. All bets are off if he goes Cheesehead and starts changing calls at the line of scrimmage.

Carey: I put the line at 30.5 and I take the under. The Green Bay defense can’t stop the run and even coach Brad Childress should know that when Adrian Peterson is in your backfield and you are facing the 23rd ranked rushing defense, you pound the rock.

These are two of the highest-scoring teams through the season’s first three weeks. Should we expect some fireworks?

Carey: Oddsmakers definitely think this one will have plenty of points, with the total set at 45.5. I think the brakes will be put on both offenses in this matchup. Green Bay won’t be able to run the ball and Rodgers will get hammered because of the hole at left tackle. They will have trouble scoring on drives and must rely on long plays or turnovers.

Meanwhile, the Vikings will be methodical and pound the ball down the field, content to control the clock and cruise to a dominating win on the legs of Peterson.

Grewal: There’s something about Monday nights that bring out the big plays. There are enough dynamic players on both teams to light up the scoreboard. I’d take the over early because you know the line’s only going to grow the closer we get to game time. 

Final score prediction:

Carey: Vikings 27, Packers 16

Grewal: Vikings 31, Packers 20

25 comments
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phancard
phancard says:
10/05/09 03:45AM

Vikings Victory will make me happy..

Dogjimbo
Dogjimbo says:
10/05/09 05:15AM

VIKE'S D and that Dome has something to say...........So does Brett.

So do the Twins Tuesday.

ZarleyZalapski
ZarleyZalapski says:
10/05/09 09:47AM

Until Rodgers wins a superbowl, I gotta go with Favre.

Dogjimbo
Dogjimbo says:
10/05/09 10:44AM

With you phancard..

doobiebrother
doobiebrother says:
10/05/09 10:45AM

Duh, this one's a no brainer. Rodgers is a budding star and Favre hasn't been that good since the late 90s. QB rank for Favre L10 years best to worst- 4, 6, 6, 10, 11, 17, 21, 25, 25, 31. He's been a serviceable QB but no more for the last decade. His best days are LONG behind him and at the moment he may be the most overrated player in the history of the NFL. Favre in his prime was of course better than Rodgers, but that was a dozen years back.

theclaw
theclaw says:
10/05/09 10:50AM

At this point, definetely Rodgers.

QB Passer Rating.......

Rodgers -- 97.2

Favre --- 94.5

One of the single most important stats that makes up the QB Passer Rating, ave gain per pass attempt.......

Rodgers -- 7.9

Favre -- 6

When you factor in a QB's ability to aviod sacks..........

Rodgers ---6.1

Favre ---- 4.96 or 27th in the league, to put this in perspective consider that the "Magnificent Jamrcus Russel" averages --- 4.33.

It's very common for people to "overreact" on one play as Favre throws a TD on the last play of the game. Plays like this are the "exception" not the general rule.

The one good thing Favre hasn't done..... YET, is throw his trademark INT's. However, there likely coming, it could be just around the corner.

Godfather16
Godfather16 says:
10/05/09 01:47PM

over the course of the year, Rodgers is going to be much better IMO. Favre has the name and is a legend and all, but I would rather have Rodgers right now. The Packers made the choice to get rid of Favre after all and it was the right one. Who knows how many years Brett would have wanted to hang on w/ GB. W/ the Vikes it is a complete team , but w/ GB they needed to rebuild.

BYUD947
BYUD947 says:
10/05/09 03:26PM

All I got to say is what have the Pack done since the exit of Favre????

NOTHING!!!!!!

understandme
understandme says:
10/05/09 05:27PM

It is obviously rogers. You guys have no idea what you are talking about.

Last Year QB rating:

Rogers 94

Favre 81

TD/INT last year:

rogers 28/13

favre 22/22

just because favre made some crazy play in the final seconds last week doesn't make him better than aaron rogers.

TenGallonHat
TenGallonHat says:
10/05/09 06:04PM

Vikings beat:

BROWNS

DETROIT

And basically lost to 49ers. Niners worked them the whole game.

Not exactly impressive resume so far.

I think Favre will be Favre tonight and throw for a few I.N.T's.

Maybe cause he'll forget he's not on the Packers now.

luckylogan
luckylogan says:
10/05/09 06:26PM

Obviously ....RODGERS..The Vikings-going into this weekend were LAST in the NFL in PASSING!! Favre is the Wizard of Oz...a fraud hiding behind the purple curtain. Without AP..the Vikings would never score more than 10 PPG!

bvpicks
bvpicks says:
10/05/09 06:55PM

BYUD :: and what has Favre done since he left GB... NOTHING!

bvpicks
bvpicks says:
10/05/09 07:15PM

The Vikings have faced the Lions and Browns. Combined record since 2008 5-35. Last week the Vikings needed a miracle throw and catch to win. I'll take the Pack to pull out a 4th qtr win.

hvacdawg
hvacdawg says:
10/05/09 07:36PM

under..........

hvacdawg
hvacdawg says:
10/05/09 07:36PM

47

allne10
allne10 says:
10/05/09 07:45PM

Hello Everyone! This is my first time posting on this site and hope I can contribute daily so we all can smash the books!!!

I like GB +5 tonight. These two teams play close games. Even though everyone is on Minn b/c of Favre & b/c Favre wants to humiliate the Packers I think the Packers are just as pissed about hearing about Favre as we are and are going to get to him and expose him. We all know the key to this game is AP & not Favre. I think the Packers know that as well and attack the line of scrimmage keeping AP in their sights. AP gets his 80-90yrd tonite but GB covers the +5 and possibly wins this game outright!! You heard it here first. I will admit when im wrong but PACKERS is the pick tonight!! Take the points and increase your bankroll. Good luck tonight!!!!

Per Covers Stats:

Road Team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings

GB is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC North

Minn is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC North

GB has only lost by more than 5 pts once since 2005 to Minn. The other games either GB won or lost under 5 pts.

Im taking the trend.

GB +5 (3 units)

Good Luck To All. Should be an entertaining game.

BYUD947
BYUD947 says:
10/05/09 08:08PM

C'Mon BVpicks.....The Pack lost @ home to the Bungles....Besides the Jets last season were well on thier way to the playoffs...Why do people discount that Favre played hurt last season...And if the Pack thought he was washed why not trade him to the Vikes last season....Hmmm...Affraid of what he might do???...The man has showed an unparalleled durability and he gets ripped cause teams still want him....To all you Favre haters....

Favre - 24

Cheeseheads - 17

bilsfn15
bilsfn15 says:
10/05/09 08:09PM

i have a feelin the packers take this tonight...think Rodgers takes it to farve tonight

richiet999
richiet999 says:
10/05/09 08:33PM

Time of possession is going to win this game for the Purple. They have been consistently on the field more than their opponents. This is a testament to the ground and pound capabilities of Minn as well as the key downs conversion of Old Farmer Farve. On the other side of the ball you get a well rested and well oiled defense. Green Bay can't run against anyone and playing a division opponent who is on top of their game won't help.. Green Bay's offense averages 27 minutes on the field that means their weak defense spends a lot of time out there failing to convert third down stops. As much as Farve probably wants to pound this team I am going to go with the author and say he won't do that much of the work.. Do expect Minn to take an early lead here and keep it. The game action should favor under in the total of this game.. That may depend on desperation by the packers and how successful or otherwise they are at completing the pass. If Rogers commits many turn overs could be a scoring fest.. If not I am more inclined to say under given the level of intensity in division games.

Good bet Minn laying the points.. Ok Bet Under..

I didn't take either on this game just watching as a fan.. All my picks are riding with Spreadproof.com

painmerchant
painmerchant says:
10/05/09 09:12PM

Passer ratings:

Aaron Rodgers 97.2

Brett Favre 94.5

Not sure but doesn't that mean Rodgers is better? Not by much granted, but better.

3 turnovers makes for a winner, and I expect Favre will deliver a couple of them tonight.

Pack Attack plus four and a hook.

BYUD947
BYUD947 says:
10/05/09 09:24PM

Kid was still in diapers when Favre was making a legacy for himself...Rodgers has a long way to go before he even allowed to have a Big Mack with Favre let alone be mentioned in comparison...Lets have this discussion after he's been in the league for 7 seasons..If he makes it that long.

paintguy
paintguy says:
10/05/09 10:39PM

so far so good i think farve will throw at least to to greenbay just out of habbit

becks7418
becks7418 says:
10/05/09 11:59PM

whoever is watching the match knows the answer :P

Lttlmac
Lttlmac says:
10/06/09 01:24AM

Game over, you tell me who the best is

Chezman
Chezman says:
10/06/09 01:58AM

Brett Favre has been saving all of his best for this matchup.

He shined bright tonight!

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