As if the Brett Favre hype machine needed any more fuel as he prepares for his Monday Night Football return against his former team, Sunday’s spectacular finish might have put it in overdrive.
Favre’s vintage last-second, scrambling 32-yard touchdown toss to a leaping Greg Lewis in the back of the end zone gave the Vikings a 27-24 win over the upstart San Francisco 49ers and set the stage for perhaps the most anticipated game of the regular season.
Pundits everywhere started speculating about the potential subplots of a Favre-led Vikings matchup against his former-employer-turned enemy, the Green Bay Packers, long before Favre and Minnesota made their dalliance official.
Now that it’s reality, oddsmakers and bettors have to get down to business. John Avello, director of race and sports operations for the Wynn Las Vegas, posted the Vikings (3-0, 2-1 ATS) as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under total of 46.
“You can look at all the stories surrounding the game and you can throw them in there, but you can’t use them for the handicapping aspect,” Avello said Monday.
The oddsmaker pointed out that the Vikings had to overcome deficits in their first two contests, road games against inferior teams in the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions, and also benefited from a fortunate outcome on the final play Sunday.
“I think yesterday was a gift, to be honest with you,” Avello said. “He threw it up for grabs, and it looked like a great play, but there was nothing else he could do in that spot.”
Although the signature Favre highlight seemed to reinforce the core reason coach Brad Childress risked his job and the chemistry of his locker room to sign him, Avello emphasized that handicapping the game involves much more than the impact of No. 4.
The telling factor might be whether the defense of the Packers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) can slow down Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, who remains the NFL’s rushing leader with 357 yards.
“Adrian Peterson is the story of the Vikings, not Favre,” Avello said. “If the Vikings don’t have Peterson, the Packers would be the favorite in this game.”
This is because, Avello said, the Packers have shown they might have a strong enough club to contend in the NFC North. Favre’s successor in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay’s 36-17 win over the St. Louis Rams.
“The Packers rebounded after a horrible week (their 31-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals), and it looks they have a pretty solid football team,” Avello said. “This is going to be one of the better Monday Night Football games as far as hype is concerned. I expect to see a lot of action, and you can make a case for either side.”
A game that might have otherwise been lost amid the Vikings-Packers headlines has turned into an early-season Bettors Bowl between the New York Jets and the New Orleans Saints (-7 for even money, total of 46.5). Each team is 3-0 in the standings and for the cash, and they have found their winning ways in contrasting methods.
The Saints are scoring at a record pace with an offense reminiscent of the Kurt Warner-led Rams. The Jets are winning with a dominant defense and a mistake-free offense, similar to the mode of operation coach Rex Ryan became familiar with when he was the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. The Rams and Ravens both won Super Bowls using their preferred styles.
“This week, the Jets are going up against a team that they are not going to be able to stop,” Avello said. “They have to be able to counterpunch here. But New Orleans isn’t exactly known for its defense, either.”
Another Week 4 contest that holds some intrigue features the San Diego Chargers (2-1, 1-2 ATS) visiting the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2, 0-3 ATS). Both struggling teams need a win to get back on track, but those who consider backing the Steelers (-6, 42) might be bit gun shy after last year’s 11-10 win over the Chargers provided one of the most bizarre spread finishes in recent memory.
Chargers bettors appeared to have the money in hand until quarterback Phillip Rivers made a desperation pass deep in his own territory as time expired that ended up in the hands of Steelers All-Pro Troy Polamalu. The Pittsburgh safety returned it for an apparent touchdown that had Steelers backers momentarily counting the cash.
That is, until it was overturned by an official’s ruling of an illegal forward pass. Even so, Avello didn’t need to rehash the wild ending to be apprehensive about backing either team Sunday.
“Neither team can afford to fall too far behind in the standings,” Avello said. “I expected the Chargers to come out playing good football … but I don’t know what the problem is. I’m not a big fan of their coach (Norv Turner). He can’t seem to get the team motivated in the locker room. They come out unprepared for a lot of games, but they should be ready for this one.”
Although the Steelers and Chargers have struggled, they have nothing on a handful of bottom-feeders that face double-figure spreads Sunday. The Detroit Lions, coming off their first win after 19 straight losses, travel to face the Chicago Bears (-10.5). The Oakland Raiders travel to meet the underachieving Houston Texans (-10), and the St. Louis Rams meet the improving 49ers (-10). The Kansas City Chiefs are an 8.5-point home underdog to the New York Giants.
“Let me tell you, there sure are a lot of bad teams in the league this year,” Avello said. “Tampa Bay (+7 at the Washington Redskins) has trouble scoring, and the Chiefs show up for a game every now and then. The Cleveland Browns (+4.5 at home against the Bengals) don’t know how to win, and the Raiders can play well for a half but then they self-destruct. Their quarterback (JaMarcus Russell) is absolutely lost.”
Other Week 4 opening lines include: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3); Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (off/Matt Hasselbeck injury); Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-2.5); Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (off/Dolphins quarterback status); Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (off/Monday Night Football).